Vice, Virtue, and Independence (A Different Path, Chapter 2)

[Independents for George Santos]

Donald John Trump
June 14, 1946 - June 1, 1971
Son, Brother, War Hero

You can't give The Donald this much growth and then just kill him off! Shaggy dog story much!

I still can't wait to see what the fallout (heh) of Goldwater's incapacitation is though. Since LeMay's bombing actually went through without a revolt from the bombers, this world absolutely won't be the same.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Couldn't Trump just sit on someone in the helicopter?
But in any case, this is marvelously written.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Can we switch this Trump with our Trump? Please?

[OBD]

Couldn't Trump just sit on someone in the helicopter?
But in any case, this is marvelously written.

[Kingpoleon]

Couldn't Trump just sit on someone in the helicopter?
But in any case, this is marvelously written.

Or the floor? Most helicopters could toss enough stuff overboard to make room for one man.

[NeederNodder]

LeMay is definitely going to prison. Wonder if McCain's politics is altered under a Goldwater Administration.

[NewYorkExpress]

LeMay is definitely going to prison. Wonder if McCain's politics is altered under a Goldwater Administration.

I bet Reagan resigns as soon as he takes office, leaving with a Democrat as President.

[Cold War Liberal]

June 1, 1971
Ronald

As the Vice President’s plane descended into Andrew’s Air Force Base, Ronald Reagan wondered what he’d find once he got to the White House. Little did he know, a firestorm was headed his way as soon as he touched down.

As he exited the plane 15 minutes later, White House Chief of Staff Denison Kitchel ran up to the Vice President. “We need you in the Situation Room, right now.” Kitchel explained the situation in Vietnam as he and Reagan flew in a helicopter into D.C. Three of the bombs had hit their targets in Hanoi; one of the B-52s went a little off course and dropped the bomb 10 miles north of Hanoi; and the last plane came under heavy fire and crashed into the Gulf of Tonkin, where its payload remained, live but undetonated. “LeMay used nukes as retaliation for hostage killings?” Jesus f-----g Christ. “So you mean to tell me that LeMay is left to his own devices for less than five hours and he starts a nuclear war?” Reagan was utterly beside himself. “That man belongs in a prison, or a mental institution.”

Kitchel shrugged, and explained the situation further. “Ambassador Dobrynin is waiting for you in the Oval, and Secretaries Kissinger and Moynihan and Trade Representative Passman are all threatening to resign over LeMay’s perceived abuse of power. The UN called an emergency session and is about to overwhelmingly pass a censure of the US. I’m sure the ICJ will knock down LeMay’s door - oh, yeah, by the way, LeMay has barricaded himself in his office with the nuclear football - and demand he be tried for violating the Geneva Conventions, if Congress doesn’t try to impeach him first. Stock markets around the world fell significantly after Goldwater’s shooting, then fell off a cliff after the bombings. You should probably visit the President when you get the chance. Oh, and we’re not quite sure if you can legally act as President if Goldwater’s not dead; the Constitution isn’t quite clear on that. But before you deal with any of that, China is freaking out over the fact that four nuclear weapons were detonated eighty miles from their territory. We’re almost certain at least a few hundred of the, oh, probably 500,000 that were instantly vaporized were PRC military. Mao might see that as a casus belli, and since the opening shot of that war would be a few nukes, I don’t want to imagine how it would escalate.”

As the helicopter touched down on the White House lawn, the full gravity of the situation slammed down on Ronald’s shoulders. He had so many crises to attend to, one of which was whether or not he could even legally do anything about any of them.

“OK. Get me a backchannel with Mao. Get a US Marshal to remove LeMay from his office, if that’s what that comes to. Ask the Counsel if I can constitutionally fire him, and how I should proceed as Acting President in a way that won’t give me legal hell after Goldwater wakes up. Then assemble the Cabinet - including LeMay - in the Situation room so I can meet with them after I make sure we’re not going to be obliterated by the Soviets, Mao, or both.”


The Soviet Ambassador was waiting for the Acting President in the Oval, just like Kitchel had said. After greetings and a handshake, Reagan got down to business. “What happened today was a massive mistake by a member of the Cabinet who thought he had the authority to act when he didn’t. It was a massive overreaction, and I will see that the man is dealt with.”

The ambassador sighed. “Brezhnev doesn’t want to retaliate in kind. No one wins a nuclear war. But we cannot just let you slaughter over half a million of our comrades without repercussions…”

“But I didn’t order those strikes -”

“But, Mr. Vice President, someone in your government did,” Dobrynin spat back tersely. “Again, there will be repercussions, even if they are not nuclear in nature.” The ambassador stormed out of the Oval.

Reagan was all by himself in the Oval for a minute or two. I… I’m not cut out for this, he thought. Who would want this weight on their shoulders, 24/7, 365 days a year, for four or even eight years?

Just then, Kitchel came in and informed him that the backchannel to the PRC’s government had been established. The Acting President spent the next hour sending indirect messages to the PRC government, which had threatened to retaliate by invading both North and South Vietnam, attacking South Korea, invading Guam, or even launching a nuclear attack against Hawaii. Because of this, Reagan ordered the military to DEFCON 2 for only the second time in US history (the other being the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962). However, Reagan was able to talk Mao down off that ledge, in exchange for two major concessions. First, in a major shift in American foreign policy and to the outrage of UN Ambassador Walter Judd, the US would not stop the PRC from joining the UN, should the other member-states agree to allow them in. Second, the US would end its trade embargo with the PRC. Reagan hated having to make those agreements, but America’s pride taking a hit was better than starting World War III.


“Sorry to keep you all waiting,” the Acting President said as he entered the Situation room, where the Cabinet had been assembled for over an hour. LeMay, Reagan had been informed, had come peacefully and without the need for the US Marshals to get involved. Reagan set his gaze on the Defense Secretary and said “you’re gonna be fired, you know” with a growl. “You’ll be impeached if you’re not, possibly even imprisoned.” “I only did what no one else in this Administration had the balls to do. I didn’t let the communists walk all over America, and I stand by that.”

Secretary Kissinger added his two cents, which prompted a retort from LeMay, and the two got into a shouting match. After a minute or two, Reagan broke it up. “I understand that you are not sure whether you can act with authority on some matters,” Kissinger told Reagan, “but if nothing is done about our errant Defense Secretary, I, along with several other members of this Cabinet, are prepared to resign in protest.”

“I understand,” said Reagan, “but I want to leave this for the President” - Goldwater - “to deal with once he comes back. Because he will be back; Kitchel told me while we were walking here that he’s stable, though still unconscious. Any issues any of you have with LeMay should be taken up with him. For now, our priorities are stabilizing the economy and making sure we don’t start World War Three. I think I have Mao and Brezhnev placated sufficiently, though America will certainly suffer in the eyes of the world. In many ways we already have; we need to ensure the damage is minimal. I’m going to give an address to the people tonight, and we I need a plan to tell them. Let’s get to work.”

"Good evening, my fellow Americans.

“Today, June 1, 1971, has perhaps been one of the most eventful days in the 20th century. This morning, our nation’s President was struck by an assassin’s bullet. Then, almost a thousand of our boys in Vietnam were brutally slaughtered by the Communists. And then, spurred by a fit of rage and enabled by the quirks of the line of succession, the Secretary of Defense authorized an attack while I, the Acting President, was away that led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands, possibly over a million, innocent civilians. Even if they were Communist, they did not pose an immediate threat to America or its troops. They did not deserve to die. This attack was improper, and one of my first priorities when I returned to Washington was assuring our allies and enemies alike that steps would be taken to amend for this travesty, and to ensure it would never happen again. While our enemies remain hostile, they understand that retaliating in kind would likely mean the destruction of most of human civilization, which even they do not want. The threat of nuclear war is, for the time being, behind us, and you, as Americans, can sleep well tonight with that knowledge.

“When the bullet struck President Goldwater, the stock markets tumbled. When the bombs fell on Hanoi, they fell to depths unseen since 1929. However, this is hopefully only temporary, borne of fears regarding nuclear war. I expect markets will recover swiftly, and the Cabinet is taking steps to ensure that will be the case.

“On the condition of President Goldwater: I have been informed, and thought it necessary to communicate to you, that it is expected that the President will make a full recovery in the next month or so; his condition has stabilized. As the assassin fired point-blank and couldn't aim properly, he failed, miraculously, to hit anything vitally important. He also failed in his goal of causing the entire nation the pain of losing a president in this violent way for a fourth time in our history. President Goldwater is expected to be conscious within a week, though it could also be a little longer; the doctors aren't sure. But what they are sure of is that he will make a recovery and will be more than fit to serve in no time.

“And finally, on a personal note: the events of today have conveyed to me a vast new understanding of what is truly the most difficult job in the world. I have undergone immense pressure in just the past few hours that rivals anything I have ever experienced in all the previous years of my life. This has called into question in my own mind whether or not I am even fit to hold the office of Vice President. Well, I have given it much thought, and have come to this conclusion: I will not seek re-election as Vice President if asked to by President Goldwater, and will not accept the nomination of my party for that position in 1972. It has been my pleasure to serve the country I love for these past few years, and to serve until January of the year after next. I hope I have served America well during this time of intense crisis.

“Goodnight, and God bless the United States of America.”

[Independents for George Santos]

June 1, 1971
Ronald

Man, incredible respect for a more humble and level-headed Ronnie Raygun. This is the type of guy who wouldn't begin bombing Russia in 5 minutes and I think based on his comportment here would be a shoe-in for 1976 after the inevitable backlash against the GOP gets Ted Kennedy or somebody elected in '72. The memory of Reagan helping America through this time of crisis, and some would say great communication, would still be fresh in the people's collective minds and I think would overcome the resentment towards the rest of the Goldwater administration. Maybe we will have Ronald to kick around again in '76, after all what's a realistic story without a few unreliable narrators?

[NewYorkExpress]

June 1, 1971
Ronald

Man, incredible respect for a more humble and level-headed Ronnie Raygun. This is the type of guy who wouldn't begin bombing Russia in 5 minutes and I think based on his comportment here would be a shoe-in for 1976 after the inevitable backlash against the GOP gets Ted Kennedy or somebody elected in '72. The memory of Reagan helping America through this time of crisis, and some would say great communication, would still be fresh in the people's collective minds and I think would overcome the resentment towards the rest of the Goldwater administration. Maybe we will have Ronald to kick around again in '76, after all what's a realistic story without a few unreliable narrators?

It doesn't seem like it to me... I think Reagan's telling the truth when he says he's done with elected office.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Massive FF Reagan ITTL!

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone find it extremely narcissistic of Reagan to make an announcement about his future career moves in politics in a Oval Office type speech after a day of wreckoning like that?

[NewYorkExpress]

Anyone find it extremely narcissistic of Reagan to make an announcement about his future career moves in politics in a Oval Office type speech after a day of wreckoning like that?

Maybe, but it makes sense, because otherwise people will assume he'll either run for re-election in 1976, or primary Goldwater outright.

[Cold War Liberal]

Anyone find it extremely narcissistic of Reagan to make an announcement about his future career moves in politics in a Oval Office type speech after a day of wreckoning like that?

Maybe, but it makes sense, because otherwise people will assume he'll either run for re-election in 1976, or primary Goldwater outright.

It'll also eliminate accusations that actions taken during his acting presidency are for his own future political gain, should such accusations arise.

[Cold War Liberal]

June 2 - December 31, 1971
Recovery...?

Ronald Reagan, formerly an actor, acted this time as President of the United States for a week

The day after giving his first speech to the American people, Acting President Reagan and the Cabinet met all day and worked out plans to recover from the economic and diplomatic blunders of the previous day. The stock markets had somewhat recovered due to Reagan’s speech; reassured that Goldwater was not going to die, and that the US wasn’t on the brink of total nuclear war, investor confidence rose. However, this shock certainly didn’t help the already-slowing economy.

Reagan was careful to only perform official actions that were absolutely necessary during his Acting Presidency due to the lack of Constitutional clarity regarding whether he actually had the authority to do anything. Luckily for him, President Goldwater regained consciousness on June 7, and was able to perform basic duties from his hospital bedroom, where he stayed until June 15. He was immediately informed of what had happened during the preceding week, but simply put off dealing with LeMay until he returned to the White House. He was privately angry with the concessions Reagan had made to China, but understood the need to avert war (nuclear or otherwise) with the PRC.

Upon his return to the Oval Office on June 15, he assembled the Cabinet. Shocking many, Goldwater did not ask for the Defense Secretary’s resignation, stating that while he would not have authorized nuclear strikes, he felt that LeMay had used his judgement to make a decision for the good of America and her people. This enraged Secretary Kissinger, and Secretaries Moynihan and Romney and Attorney General Miller also made strong objections in that meeting. Goldwater did not waver, and so the three Cabinet secretaries and the Attorney General resigned. Additionally, UN Ambassador Walter Judd resigned earlier that week over the decision to not block the People’s Republic of China’s bid to join the UN, and Trade Representative Otto Passman resigned in protest to Reagan’s end of the trade embargo with the PRC, which was upheld, begrudgingly, by President Goldwater.

Goldwater started to fill those positions immediately. To replace Kissinger, the President picked former Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. Lodge had served as a Senator and Ambassador to several countries and the UN under Presidents of both parties, and was thus uncontroversial, with only Senator McGovern voting against his confirmation. For Attorney General, Goldwater chose the infamous Phyllis Schlafly, who had returned to being Solicitor General after her short stint as a Supreme Court Justice. Schlafly, used to confirmation hearings by now, was confirmed 52-48. To replace Moynihan, Goldwater picked University of Chicago business school dean George P. Schultz. Schultz was respected and uncontroversial, and was confirmed 87-13. And, finally, former New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller agreed to be Goldwater’s next Secretary of Housing, and was confirmed 94-6. To replace Walter Judd at UN, Goldwater chose Alexander Haig, who had worked for Secretary McNamara in the Kennedy Administration before tagging along with Kissinger when he joined the State Department under Goldwater. Haig had quickly made a name for himself and risen up through the ranks in State; now, he was called to take what he’d learned to the UN. He was confirmed 63-37. For Trade Representative, Goldwater selected Gillette Razor Co. President Carl Gilbert. Gilbert's previous stances on trade policy raised eyebrows in the Senate, but he was eventually confirmed 65-55.

Congress drafted up articles of impeachment against Secretary LeMay for “crimes against humanity,” which passed the House with over 350 votes in mid-July. Due to an overwhelming outcry against him and his actions by the public, the trial in the Senate was quick and ended with 83 Senators voting to convict on July 31, 1971. The UN labeled him a war criminal, and the International Court of Justice ordered that he appear before them and be tried, but LeMay refused. Goldwater stopped defending him, and swiftly replaced him with Ret. Gen. Lucius Clay (who was confirmed 70-30), but did not turn LeMay over to the ICJ. New Attorney General Phyllis Schlafly was pressured by the public to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate LeMay, but refused; President Goldwater stayed out of the matter and ignored questions about LeMay in press conferences, to the chagrin of many.

Goldwater Cabinet
As of August 15, 1971

President: Barry Goldwater
Vice President: Ronald Reagan
-------
Secretary of State: Henry Cabot Lodge Jr.
Secretary of the Treasury: Robert Galvin
Secretary of Defense: Lucius Clay
Attorney General: Phyllis Schlafly
Secretary of the Interior: Robert Smylie
Secretary of Agriculture: Earl Butz
Secretary of Labor: George P. Schultz
Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare: Clare Luce
Secretary of Housing: Nelson Rockefeller
Secretary of Transportation: William Scranton
-------
FBI Director: J. Edgar Hoover
Director of Central Intelligence: Richard Helms
-------
Chief of Staff: Denison Kitchel
Press Secretary: Clarence Manion
Director of the Bureau of Budget: Robert Mayo
United States Trade Representative: Carl Gilbert
United States Ambassador to the United Nations: Alexander Haig

The public, who had sympathy for Goldwater after the shooting, was up in arms over the decision not to fire LeMay, erasing all the public support the President had gained since his run-in with Arthur Bremer, and then some. Vice President Reagan was significantly more popular than President Goldwater, but with the former California Governor off the ‘72 ticket, reelection was even more of a pipe dream now than it was at the beginning of the month. Goldwater approached a number of Republicans about being the VP nominee in 1972. All of them declined.

The bombings of Hanoi also led more of the American public to protest against both the war in Vietnam but also in favor of nuclear disarmament. A new “nuclear freeze” movement sprung up, along with a revitalized environmentalist movement, and demanded the US government do more to reduce the risk of nuclear war, protect the environment, and reduce pollution.

Late 1971 saw a large amount of change proposed to the US Constitution. In July, an Amendment dealing with the Vice Presidency (lobbied for by Ronald Reagan) was drafted and read as follows:

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This Amendment passed the House and the Senate overwhelmingly, and was sent to the state for ratification on August 2, 1971. 21 states had ratified it by December 31 of that year. Its deadline for ratification was January 1, 1977. The second Amendment up for debate was the “McGovern Amendment,” as it was being called. It was simpler than the Vice Presidential Amendment, and had been proposed earlier in the year. It read:

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The McGovern Amendment was still controversial, but grew in popularity as time went on. It passed through committee, and passed with a majority in the House and Senate, but not the 2/3rds majority it required. Senator McGovern promised to pass the Amendment if elected President, and made it a large part of his campaign’s platform. The third Amendment under consideration was the Equal Rights Amendment. It read:

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The Equal Rights Amendment passed the House in early October, and, after some debate, passed the Senate in late November. The ratification deadline was November 31, 1978; by December 31, 15 states had ratified the Amendment. Attorney General Schlafly was an outspoken advocate against the bill, but most of the public tuned her out, and her position prevented her from doing much of any actual advocacy against the Amendment. The ERA was supported by most Democrats and many liberal Republicans as well; Southern Democrats (except for “new South” Democrats such as former Gov. Terry Sanford, Sen. Katherine Peden, Sen. Jimmy Carter, and Florida’s Gov. Askew and Sens. Collins and Chiles) and Goldwaterite conservative Republicans were the groups most opposed to the passage of the ERA, with little opposition to be found elsewhere.

The already slow economy had not been helped by the crash on June 1, though the markets recovered around 70% of their value in the next month. Goldwater did not see it as the government’s job to interfere in markets. However, Goldwater did one thing: he cancelled the convertibility of the dollar into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system. Against the advice of Treasury Secretary Galvin, he did not freeze wages or prices or enact an import surcharge to protect the economy from the shock this would cause to the global markets. This shock, known as the “Goldwater Shock,” caused stock and commodity markets (along with wages) to drop again, and caused inflation and unemployment to tick up to 8% and 8.5%, respectively.

The Vietnam War turned even further against the US after the bombings of Hanoi. The Viet Cong were bruised but by no means beaten, and received more and more support from the USSR and the PRC as a punishment against the US. By the end of the year, Americans were forced back to a 50 mile radius around their central operations in Saigon. South Vietnam was overrun, and Barry Goldwater looked like he was about to become the first American President to lose a war. The public was already firmly against the war when, in mid-June 1971, the New York Times began to publish the Pentagon Papers. These papers covered the actions America took in Vietnam from 1945-1967, with special emphasis on the Eisenhower and Kennedy Administrations. This somewhat hurt public perception of the previous two Presidents, though it mostly reflected poorly on Kennedy’s Cabinet, as the President was persuaded to keep troops in Vietnam (which he did) and was pushed, especially by Secretary McNamara, to escalate the war (which he resisted, to the public’s approval). The Goldwater Administration objected to the papers printing classified documents (later revealed to have been stolen by Daniel Ellsberg). However, in The New York Times Co. v. United States (1971), the Supreme Court decided 6-3 in the Times’s favor that they and the Washington Post could continue to publish the papers. Only Justices Carswell, Bork, and Blackmun argued in the favor of the government.

In the wake of the shooting, primary candidates on both sides halted their campaigns for about a month. John Lindsay considered dropping out, but Goldwater’s refusal to fire LeMay revitalized Lindsay’s campaign; the mayor was polling higher than ever before. Winning March’s New Hampshire primary was beginning to look plausible, as the President was deeply unpopular outside the deep South and Southwest. New England had never liked Goldwater; the Plains were hurting from his farm policy; and the the Northwest and Tennessee Valley were recovering from Goldwater’s sale of the TVA and the BPA, both of which were struggling in the poor economy. These bad numbers were sure to pose problems to the President in both the primary and the general election. Things got worse for the President: in November, Ohio Senator John Ashbrook announced that he would run for the Republican nomination on a platform of “Clean Conservatism.” Ashbrook hoped that voter’s problems with Goldwater were with his governance, not his ideology. Despite this new challenge, Goldwater vowed to continue on with his campaign.

In the Democratic primary, Senator Jimmy Carter announced his campaign in late September of 1971. His polling jumped in the South; the young Governor-turned-Senator was performing better than fellow “New South” former Governor Terry Sanford. Outgoing Louisiana Governor John McKeithen declined to run for higher office, instead endorsing Sanford. Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty announced a surprise bid for the Presidency as well, however, this was overshadowed by Senator Edmund Muskie’s announcement in late October that he would be a candidate for President. Reps. Wilbur Mills and Patsy Mink both announced campaigns in November, while Rep. Shirley Chisholm became the first black woman to seek the presidential nomination of a major party when she announced in December. Two major candidates also announced in December: Senate Majority Whip Hubert Humphrey, who poached McGovern campaign manager Gary Hart to manage his liberal, anti-war, anti-poverty primary campaign, and Senator Ted Kennedy, who announced he was running to “go back to the principles of my brother, and then go beyond.” The Pentagon Papers did a little damage to Kennedy’s campaign, but not much.

1968 Presidential nominee George Wallace didn’t endorse anyone in the Democratic primary, but ruled out running for a third time. Seen by many as a major mistake that threw away a winnable election, the national party had essentially shunned not only Wallace but his entire wing of the party after his considerable defeat to President Goldwater in the last election.

Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana all held gubernatorial elections in 1971. In Kentucky, Lt. Gov. Wendell Ford narrowly beat Thomas Emberton, taking back the governorship for the Democrats. In Mississippi, prosecutor Bill Waller defeated Fayette Mayor Charles Evers in a landslide. And in Louisiana, Congressman Edwin Edwards defeated attorney David Treen.

June 2 - December 31, 1971
Other Headlines
Vietnam Veterans Speak Out Against War
Gloria Steinem Addresses the “Women of America”
Steinem Endorses McGovern
Goldwater: “I May Have to Meet” with Brezhnev, Mao
2.7 Million March on Washington in Protest of War, Nukes
Prometheus 13 Moon Landing Another Success
JFK Dedicates Presidential Library, Then Performing Arts Center
Disney World Opens in Orlando
Led Zeppelin IV Released to Huge Success
Intel Invents World’s First Microprocessor
Indo-Pakistani War Ends After 13 Days
US Dollar Devalued!
Max Jakobson Selected to be Next UN Secretary-General
Gallup Poll
January 1, 1972
President Goldwater Approval Rating
Disapprove: 68%
Approve: 31%
Not sure: 1%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Do you support American involvement in the Vietnam War?
No: 65%
Yes: 33%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Who do you support for the Democratic nomination in 1972?
(Democrats only, italics = unannounced)
Edmund Muskie: 17%
Ted Kennedy: 15%
Hubert Humphrey: 12%
George McGovern: 9%
Jimmy Carter: 9%
Henry Jackson: 5%
Terry Sanford: 3%
Sam Yorty: 3%
Shirley Chisholm: 2%
Roland Renne: 2%
Wilbur Mills: 1%
Patsy Mink: 1%
Someone else: 1%
Not sure: 19%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 1972?
(Republicans only, italics = unannounced)
Barry Goldwater: 51%
John Lindsay: 25%
John Ashbrook: 12%
Someone else: 2%
Not sure: 9%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the Vice Presidential Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 78%
No: 18%
Not sure: 3%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the McGovern Amendment be passed and ratified?
Yes: 53%
No: 37%
Not sure: 7%
Didn’t answer: 3%
Should the Equal Rights Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 68%
No: 25%
Not sure: 5%
Didn’t answer: 2%
Who would you support if the 1972 Presidential election was held today?
Democrats: 46%
President Barry Goldwater: 27%
Other: 3%
Not sure: 21%
Didn’t answer: 3%
Who would you support if the 1972 congressional elections were held today?
Democrats: 50%
Republicans: 32%
Other: 1%
Not sure: 16%
Didn’t answer: 1%

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This is by far the most creative spin on a "JFK Lives!" scenario I've ever seen. While certainly not the most likely outcome, it definitely makes for an interesting story. Eager to see where this goes--particularly in terms of a Goldwater/Lindsay fight. I imagine the US in general will be much less hawkish than usual; I could even see Reagan himself successfully leading the push to ban nuclear weapons entirely should he get lucky in terms of Soviet Premiers as he did in OTL (should he choose to seek the Oval Office in 1976/1980).

[NeederNodder]

Are we gonna get an update on Hillary? Does her politics change under a Goldwater Administration?

[Cold War Liberal]

Are we gonna get an update on Hillary? Does her politics change under a Goldwater Administration?

We'll catch up with her later, but to answer this question, she stays a Republican longer but Goldwater's implosion makes her into the liberal we all know and love. She's working on the McGovern campaign at the moment.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Damn, this is fascinating. I hope the McGovern amendament doesn't pass- it's dangerous and will weaken the U.S. Anyway, go Lindsay! And I hope Chisholm performs better than expected, that would be fitting after Wallace.

[Continential]

Damn, this is fascinating. I hope the McGovern amendament doesn't pass- it's dangerous and will weaken the U.S. Anyway, go Lindsay! And I hope Chisholm performs better than expected, that would be fitting after Wallace.

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Cold War Liberal]

January 1 - March 8, 1972
The Road to New Hampshire ‘72

President Goldwater campaigns in Nashua

With twelve candidates for President on the Democratic side in 1972, the field was obviously overly crowded. McGovern made a name for himself for being the most liberal of the bunch which both helped and hurt him with some voters. Senator Humphrey had the most experience, which left him with a tried-and-true liberal record, and which he stated would make him best able to clean up Goldwater’s mess. Senator Jackson, while against the war in Vietnam, was notably more hawkish than most of his competitors while still being liberal on domestic issues. Senator Carter was more moderate, a consensus-builder with strength in the transitioning South. The other candidates fought for the rest of the ideological spectrum. Senators Muskie and Kennedy were both trying to be more moderate McGoverns, while also trying to paint Humphrey, who was ideologically similar to them, as out of touch with the modern party. Wilbur Mills was laser focused on issues affecting senior citizens, Shirley Chisholm made fighting poverty the biggest part of her campaign platform, and Roland Renne cared most about agriculture and education. Patsy Mink was against the war… like everyone else. No one was really sure why Sam Yorty was running.

The new system made up of more caucuses and primaries - crafted by George McGovern - left every candidate unsure of what the best strategy was to win. The bulk of the delegates wouldn’t be won at the convention, like in years past (though there were a not insignificant number of them still allocated there), they were now doled out according to who won primaries and caucuses. Though most of the media’s attention was on the New Hampshire primary, several other states held caucuses prior to the nation’s first primary. Muskie won Iowa, while Kennedy won Arizona, Humphrey won Minnesota, and Jackson won Washington. These were viewed as less important than the primaries, however, as there were less delegates at stake, and caucuses aren’t as open to the public as primaries.

New Hampshire was a four way race between Senators Muskie, Kennedy, Humphrey, and McGovern. It wasn’t originally that way; Muskie and Kennedy had wide leads, but started attacking each other viciously. Muskie pointed out Kennedy’s lavish lifestyle and hinted at his rumored affair with Mary Jo Kopechne, who had worked on Kennedy’s reelection bid; this image of Kennedy being a “spoiled man-child,” as one Muskie supporter called him, did serious damage to Kennedy. Teddy was determined that if he was going down, he would drag Muskie down with him. He insinuated that Muskie had prejudice against French-Canadians, and worked with William Loeb of the Manchester Union-Leader, which published a hitpiece on Muskie’s wife Jane, describing her as both a racist and a drunk. This lead to the Maine Senator delivering a speech in the snow outside the Union-Leader’s office on February 26. He defended his wife admirably, but the snow on his face made it appear that he was crying, which is what the press said he had done. Calm, cool, collected Ed Muskie was now crying Ed Muskie. Both Kennedy and Muskie dropped precipitously in the polls, to the benefit of Humphrey and McGovern. McGovern’s rise, however, was slowed by a speech he gave in Nashua where he unveiled his universal health insurance plan - “Medicare for All,” he called it - which would require a hefty tax increase to fund, something that was toxic in famously-tax-averse New Hampshire. The final days of the New Hampshire campaign were ugly, and while Muskie might’ve "won," it was almost a Pyrrhic victory.

Democratic New Hampshire Primary, 1972
Edmund S. Muskie: 27.42%
Hubert H. Humphrey: 23.75%
Edward M. Kennedy: 19.30%
George S. McGovern: 16.48%
Henry M. Jackson: 5.24%
Others: 7.81%
(Italics = write-in)

On the Republican side, President Goldwater was fighting for his political life. Never the best at connecting with people, Goldwater paled in comparison to John Lindsay’s comfortable charm on the campaign trail. And the entrance of conservative Senator Ashbrook had undermined Goldwater’s biggest asset: his ideology. Goldwater was caught between a slick liberal and a conservative (relatively) unburdened by the Administration’s bad decisions. So he went on the offensive. Goldwater made speeches accusing Ashbrook of piggybacking off the work Goldwater had done to legitimize the conservative movement back in the ‘60’s. Spending little time on Ashbrook (so as to not appear threatened), Goldwater turned his attention to Lindsay. He painted the New York Mayor as the second coming of Nelson Rockefeller (which angered the new Housing Secretary), and told those tax-averse New Hampshirites that Lindsay would take as much of their money as McGovern. Lindsay shot back that Goldwater had failed to deliver the tax relief he campaigned on, and waved the bloody shirt of the nuclear bombings of Hanoi as a way to emphasize Goldwater’s lack of judgement. In the end, Lindsay defeated the President, but in a closer contest than expected.

Republican New Hampshire Primary, 1972
John V. Lindsay: 42.57%
Barry M. Goldwater: 37.64%
John M. Ashbrook: 8.71%
Others: 11.08%
(Italics = write-in)

Goldwater was down, for sure, but he certainly wasn’t out. That night, he vowed to his supporters to fight to the very end.

January 1 - March 8, 1972
Other Headlines

Max Jakobson Becomes UN Secretary-General
30 States Ratified Vice Pres. Amendment So Far
21 States Ratified ERA So Far
Pakistan Begins Nuclear Program!
Angela Davis Released from Prison
Sen. Agnew: “Perhaps Goldwater Should Drop Out”

Gallup Poll
March 9, 1972
President Goldwater Approval Rating
Disapprove: 67%
Approve: 32%
Not sure: 1%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Do you support American involvement in the Vietnam War?
No: 69%
Yes: 30%
Not sure: 1%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Who do you support for the Democratic nomination in 1972?
(Democrats only)
Edmund Muskie: 15%
Ted Kennedy: 14%
Hubert Humphrey: 14%
George McGovern: 12%
Jimmy Carter: 11%
Henry Jackson: 6%
Sam Yorty: 3%
Terry Sanford: 2%
Shirley Chisholm: 2%
Roland Renne: 2%
Wilbur Mills: 1%
Patsy Mink: 1%
Someone else: 1%
Not sure: 15%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 1972?
(Republicans only)
Barry Goldwater: 47%
John Lindsay: 28%
John Ashbrook: 13%
Someone else: 2%
Not sure: 9%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the Vice Presidential Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 80%
No: 17%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the McGovern Amendment be passed and ratified?
Yes: 54%
No: 37%
Not sure: 6%
Didn’t answer: 3%
Should the Equal Rights Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 70%
No: 23%
Not sure: 5%
Didn’t answer: 2%
Who would you support if the 1972 Presidential election was held today?
Democrats: 45%
President Barry Goldwater: 28%
Other: 2%
Not sure: 23%
Didn’t answer: 2%
Who would you support if the 1972 congressional elections were held today?
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 33%
Other: 1%
Not sure: 14%
Didn’t answer: 1%

[Cold War Liberal]

March 8 - May 2, 1972
From New Hampshire to Ohio

Relatively little-known Senator Jimmy Carter emerged as a frontrunner in Southern primaries

Following New Hampshire, all eyes turned to the primary in Florida a week later. Senator Jimmy Carter had basically ignored New Hampshire, instead focusing his attention on his Florida campaign. Meanwhile, former North Carolina Governor Terry Sanford also poured a large amount of money and time into the primary, as he was hoping to gain momentum from a strong finish there. Senator Muskie also hoped for a better-than-average showing in the sunshine state in an attempt to push away from Ted Kennedy and become the frontrunner. When all the votes were counted, however, Carter had won by almost 18 points, cementing his place as a serious candidate.

Democratic Florida Primary, 1972
James E. Carter: 40.54%
Hubert H. Humphrey: 20.85%
Edmund S. Muskie: 10.14%
Henry M. Jackson: 9.55%
Edward M. Kennedy: 7.10%
George S. McGovern: 5.26%
J. Terry Sanford: 3.81%
Others: 2.75%

Following his disappointing loss, Governor Sanford dropped out and endorsed Senator Carter, further helping Carter’s campaign. His humble backstory, plain manner of speech, and moderate policies appealed to many in the South while also giving him appeal across the country. However, many Democrats were wary of nominating another former Southern Governor just four years after George Wallace’s disastrous defeat was seared into their minds.

On March 24 was another important primary: Illinois. Ed Muskie led, but Hubert Humphrey had the support of the traditional Democratic establishment in Chicago, including that of unions, while George McGovern was also expected to perform well. Senator Kennedy’s campaign was floundering nationwide following disappointing performances in the previous primaries, but he had a chance at a decent showing in Illinois as well. The Land of Lincoln did not vote contrary to expectations, but the results were consequential nonetheless.

Democratic Illinois Primary, 1972
Edmund S. Muskie: 30.21%
Hubert H. Humphrey: 26.89%
George S. McGovern: 17.33%
Edward M. Kennedy: 15.83%
James E. Carter: 8.45%
Others: 1.29%

Hubert Humphrey was playing a game he hadn’t had to play when he’d ran for President in 1952 or 1960. Back then, to win the nomination, you had to win the support of bosses at the convention. Now, that was a much smaller part of the process (one which he, Senate Majority Whip, dominated as a part of the Democratic establishment), and the most important part was doing well in primaries. That’s where Humphrey campaign manager Gary Hart came in; having worked for McGovern until late 1971, he understood the process just about as well as anyone. That was why Humphrey had approached him and, helped along by a large sum of money, gotten him to leave McGovern and run the Minnesota Senator’s campaign. Under this new system, you didn’t have to win to win, you just had to perform well. Humphrey’s second-place finishes still netted him a significant amount of delegates; coupled with the support of traditional convention delegates, Humphrey emerged from March of 1972 with more delegates than any other candidate, despite not having won a single primary.

That quickly changed; Humphrey beat George McGovern by 8 points in April 4th’s Wisconsin primary (aided, perhaps, with being from a neighboring state). Ed Muskie won the caucus in his home state of Maine, while McGovern won the Idaho caucus and Kennedy won the contest in Vermont. Ted Kennedy was hit by a sex scandal in mid-April; the rumors that he was cheating on his wife with campaign aide Mary Jo Kopechne (who not only worked for his reelection to the Senate but was also high up in the Kennedy for President ‘72 campaign) were given more weight by an expose in the New York Times. Additionally, in an interview right before the scandal broke, he was asked a simple question - “why do you want to be President” - and responded with a puzzling rant. These two incidents combined severely damaged his already-failing campaign. But it was the Massachusetts primary that was the final nail in his campaign’s coffin.

Democratic Massachusetts Primary, 1972
Edward M. Kennedy: 45.62%
George S. McGovern: 37.26%
Edmund S. Muskie: 7.85%
Hubert H. Humphrey: 7.42%
Others: 1.85%

Senator Kennedy dropped out after a abysmal showing in his home state’s primary

That George McGovern could come within 10 points of a Kennedy in Massachusetts was the writing on the wall for Kennedy’s campaign. Kennedy dropped out of the race 2 days later; he did not endorse anyone. Governor Renne and Mayor Yorty also dropped out due to disappointing showings in the primaries; Renne endorsed Muskie, while Yorty endorsed Humphrey. Humphrey won the Pennsylvania primary, while McGovern won the Nevada caucuses. Three primaries were held on May 2: Washington, D.C., which was won by favorite son Walter Fauntroy; Indiana, where Humphrey beat McGovern by 5 points; and Ohio, where Humphrey beat McGovern by 3, and where Senator Carter surprisingly edged out Senator Muskie for third place (with 17% of the vote to Muskie’s 16%). Senator Jackson dropped out following these primaries and endorsed Humphrey.

President Goldwater campaigns in Florida. He was most popular in the South, including among conservative Democrats

After a defeat in New Hampshire, President Goldwater was far from ready to give up. Instead, he doubled down and threw himself into Florida and Illinois. And it payed off for the President; he won Florida with over 60% of the vote (with most of the rest going to John Ashbrook). In an upset, John Lindsay won Illinois by just 0.3% of the vote, due to his popularity in Chicago and the split conservative vote in the rest of the state. Goldwater came back, however, and won Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by decent margins, even as Lindsay won Massachusetts in a landslide.

Ahead of the May 2 primaries, Goldwater got himself tangled in a public relations snafu. Earlier in 1972, activist Angela Davis had been released on bail from a California prison, where she was being held for allegedly aiding in the murder of a judge the year prior. Davis spared no time criticizing President Goldwater for doing next to nothing with regard to civil rights for African-Americans, especially on things like housing and voting rights, which were still not nationally guaranteed (though 30 states passed laws protecting and enforcing these rights). Goldwater responded publicly, voicing the opinion that Davis was a “communist terrorist” who “deserves to rot in prison.” While conservatives ate this up, and while liberal Republicans didn’t love Davis, the Rockefeller/Lindsay wing of the party condemned the President for his remarks, calling them undignified and unbecoming of the office which Goldwater held.

Angela Davis with Valentina Tereshkova, Soviet politician, 1972

Things got worse for Goldwater, however, when former cosmonaut, first woman to walk on the moon, and rising Soviet political star Valentina Tereshkova also denounced Goldwater, calling America’s inability to guarantee rights to all of its citizens “an overwhelming failure of the American system.” Furthermore, Tereshkova invited Davis to the USSR, an offer she accepted. The fact that America really was having ongoing issues with integration (despite Supreme Court decisions in the 1950’s and the Civil Rights Act of 1965) and that a US citizen - even a polarizing one like Davis - toured the USSR and reported back favorably was a point of embarrassment for Goldwater. He issued an apology for his harsh words, which did not help his standing with liberals and hurt him among conservatives, who didn’t see anything to apologize for.

In Indiana, Goldwater crushed Lindsay and Ashbrook, but Ohio was a different story. Senator Ashbrook won 36.72% of the vote to President Goldwater’s 36.04% of the vote and John Lindsay’s 25.99%. Ashbrook’s win in his home state was the first such win for the Ohio Senator, and Goldwater’s loss was chalked up to the Davis affair. Still, with several Southern primaries coming up and with Goldwater still very much in the game, the President was optimistic about his chances at dispelling his primary challengers.

Democratic Primaries and Caucuses
As of May 3, 1972

Hubert H. Humphrey: ~13% of delegates
Edmund S. Muskie: ~7% of delegates
George S. McGovern: ~4% of delegates
Edward M. Kennedy: ~3% of delegates
James E. Carter: ~2% of delegates
Henry M. Jackson: >~1% of delegates
Others: ~1% of delegates
Republican Primaries
As of May 3, 1972

Barry M. Goldwater: ~15% of delegates
John V. Lindsay: ~6% of delegates
John M. Ashbrook: ~2% of delegates
March 8 - May 2, 1972
Other Headlines
34 States Ratified Vice Pres. Amendment So Far
23 States Ratified ERA So Far
McGovern Amendment Fails in Congress Again
McGovern Vows to Pass Amendment if Elected
The Godfather Premieres
Opinion: After Hanoi, Signing BWC is “the Least US Can Do”
US, USSR Sign Biological Weapons Convention
Experts Say Saigon Could Fall “Within Months”
Gallup Poll
May 3, 1972
President Goldwater Approval Rating
Disapprove: 66%
Approve: 32%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Do you support American involvement in the Vietnam War?
No: 69%
Yes: 30%
Not sure: 1%
Didn’t answer: 0%
Who do you support for the Democratic nomination in 1972?
(Democrats only)
Hubert Humphrey: 22%
George McGovern: 17%
Edmund Muskie: 16%
Jimmy Carter: 15%
Shirley Chisholm: 3%
Wilbur Mills: 1%
Patsy Mink: 1%
Roland Renne: 0%
Sam Yorty: 0%
Terry Sanford: 0%
Henry Jackson: 0%
Ted Kennedy: 0%
Someone else: 1%
Not sure: 23%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who do you support for the Republican nomination in 1972?
(Republicans only)
Barry Goldwater: 46%
John Lindsay: 25%
John Ashbrook: 17%
Someone else: 5%
Not sure: 6%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the Vice Presidential Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 82%
No: 15%
Not sure: 2%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Should the McGovern Amendment be passed and ratified?
Yes: 55%
No: 37%
Not sure: 5%
Didn’t answer: 3%
Should the Equal Rights Amendment be ratified?
Yes: 71%
No: 23%
Not sure: 4%
Didn’t answer: 2%
Who would you support if the 1972 Presidential election was held today?
Democrats: 46%
President Barry Goldwater: 26%
Other: 5%
Not sure: 22%
Didn’t answer: 1%
Who would you support if the 1972 congressional elections were held today?
Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 32%
Other: 1%
Not sure: 13%
Didn’t answer: 1%

[MillennialModerate]

A few things I’d find shocking:

That LeMay wasn’t in a jail cell.

That Ted Kennedy wouldn’t be running away with the Dem nomination.......And if he wasn’t &  that Muskie wasn’t the one with a firm control of next in line.

Goldwater definitely benefiting off of sympathy for the attack on him

[Joe Biden 2024]

I was torn between supporting Teddy or Muskie, but with Teddy, I hope Muskie wins.

[Cold War Liberal]

That LeMay wasn’t in a jail cell.

OK so this is fun because I don't actually know what the procedure would be for punishing LeMay for that, simply because it's never happened IRL. Indicting him for murdering the Vietnamese? Violating the Geneva Conventions? If anyone can clear this up for me I'd love to lock LeMay up for the rest of this TL.

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He doesn't have Chappaquiddick ITTL, but he does have an affair with Mary Jo, oops. That doesn't play well. Also Muskie and him struggled to differentiate themselves from each other. Muskie successfully paints Teddy as a privileged playboy and since he actually is a privileged playboy it hurts his campaign

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Normally he would be the one to benefit from Kennedy's downfall if not for Kennedy and the Union-Leader smearing his wife and causing the same crying fiasco as IRL. Additionally, he doesn't have the boost of having been a former VP nominee like IRL (something to keep in mind). Humphrey benefits from Kennedy's downfall too, plus he's got more experience, a great civil rights record, and almost total support from unions and the traditional establishment. Not really sure who Muskie's base is who's not also in Humphrey's base.

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Somewhat, yes, and a divided opposition (Lindsay to the left, Ashbrook to the right)