PA-Muhlenberg: Casey dominating Republican challengers

[LimoLiberal]

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-morning-call-muhlenberg-pennsylvania-poll-governor-senate-20180411-story.html

Casey (D) - 48
Barletta (R) - 32

Casey (D) - 48
Christiana (R) - 29

Other tidbits:

Trump below water on approval 39-55
Democrats lead congressional generic ballot 47-38

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-morning-call-muhlenberg-pennsylvania-poll-governor-senate-20180411-story.html

Casey (D) - 48
Barletta (R) - 32

Casey (D) - 48
Christiana (R) - 29

Other tidbits:

Trump below water on approval 39-55
Democrats lead congressional generic ballot 47-38

Too rosy on Casey and the approval, but I do predict a bloodbath with the congressional seats.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm surprised Barletta's even at 32%...or that Casey's already at 48%. I would've thought this race would be something like 45-30 right now...with most of the undecided's being Democrats who broke for Trump in 2016.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The environment, Casey's fundraising numbers, and these polls all show us that this race is not competitive.

The Democrats are going to sweep all the completive house races. PA10 is going to be very close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nice!

[mds32]

I do want to say if you can't do a poll of 500+ voters within 2-3 days then don't do it at all.

Quite literally many different events and issues can occur in Pennsylvania or the world in general for 8 days and ruin polls. People's attitudes can change. Advertisements for the GOP Governor race for instance have only just started to go up in the last week for instance. I believe the Democrats are leading almost certainly. But not by 48-32 margins. This is the same crap that occurred with Corbett's Governor race too. Democrats then ended up only barely winning by 10 in a race they were supposed to win by +25 from the "polls." Either treat PA like every other state and poll it within 2-3 days and have a nice sample or don't do it at all.
- End rant.

[Senator Incitatus]

Safe D, largely since Barletta seems not to be fundraising or campaigning.

[LimoLiberal]

I do want to say if you can't do a poll of 500+ voters within 2-3 days then don't do it at all.

Quite literally many different events and issues can occur in Pennsylvania or the world in general for 8 days and ruin polls. People's attitudes can change. Advertisements for the GOP Governor race for instance have only just started to go up in the last week for instance. I believe the Democrats are leading almost certainly. But not by 48-32 margins. This is the same crap that occurred with Corbett's Governor race too. Democrats then ended up only barely winning by 10 in a race they were supposed to win by +25 from the "polls." Either treat PA like every other state and poll it within 2-3 days and have a nice sample or don't do it at all.
- End rant.

This post shows...
1. an inability to understand how public opinion shifts
2. an inability to understand how polling works
2. delusion and anger at the fact that republicans are going to get walloped in Pennsylvania in november
4. utter falsification of how the 2014 pa gubernatorial race went (The average of the last six polls for that race was Wolf+10... exactly what the final margin was: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election,_2014#Polling_3)

[mds32]

I'll cede 4. The other 3 that you stated are completely wrong. Polling NORMALLY should be done within 2-3 days to get an accurate snap shot of the electorate regardless. Public opinion shifts naturally, however, no one sees that public opinion shifts if your poll is a 8 to sometimes 14 days long, why? Because the likelihood many major events can happen in such a time period goes up astronomically and can effect what the responses will be.

Delusional? Hardly I am well aware the GOP is in for a tough election, any Republican that doesn't think that is probably not with it. What's delusional is that you have to write a post to try and put people down and be rude because I am simply complaining that PA cannot get accurate snapshot polls like PPP, Marist, or Quinnipiac on a regular basis and instead we are left with this GARBAGE.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'll cede 4. The other 3 that you stated are completely wrong. Polling NORMALLY should be done within 2-3 days to get an accurate snap shot of the electorate regardless. Public opinion shifts naturally, however, no one sees that public opinion shifts if your poll is a 8 to sometimes 14 days long, why? Because the likelihood many major events can happen in such a time period goes up astronomically and can effect what the responses will be.

Delusional? Hardly I am well aware the GOP is in for a tough election, any Republican that doesn't think that is probably not with it. What's delusional is that you have to write a post to try and put people down and be rude because I am simply complaining that PA cannot get accurate snapshot polls like PPP, Marist, or Quinnipiac on a regular basis and instead we are left with this GARBAGE.

Actually, public opinion rarely shifts so fast. I am genuinely not convinced that public opinion about the parties has changed at all since May of last year besides a slight uptick in Jan for the gop. Special elections have had basically the same big shift for dems no matter what happens. The week Conor Lamb won was a very triumphant one for the gop and they still got shellshocked

[Maxwell]

hilariously Lou Barletta is going to do worse than a guy who was pretty close to a rando in 2012 did against Bob Casey.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

hilariously Lou Barletta is going to do worse than a guy who was pretty close to a rando in 2012 did against Bob Casey.

Mark my words: Casey is going to win by double digits.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

hilariously Lou Barletta is going to do worse than a guy who was pretty close to a rando in 2012 did against Bob Casey.

That rando had a ton of money.

[mds32]

hilariously Lou Barletta is going to do worse than a guy who was pretty close to a rando in 2012 did against Bob Casey.

That rando had a ton of money.

And I think he died tbh.

[IceSpear]

hilariously Lou Barletta is going to do worse than a guy who was pretty close to a rando in 2012 did against Bob Casey.

That rando had a ton of money.

And I think he died tbh.

Wow, I didn't know that. RIP.