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| | | | |-+  CA Gov - Tulchin Research: Newsom 26%, Cox 16%, Chiang 9%
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Author Topic: CA Gov - Tulchin Research: Newsom 26%, Cox 16%, Chiang 9%  (Read 643 times)
Coastal Elitist
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« on: April 19, 2018, 04:34:27 pm »

Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom continues to lead the field of gubernatorial hopefuls for the June 2018 primary, with 26% of likely voters saying they would vote for him, followed by businessman John Cox (16%), State Controller John Chiang (9%), Assemblyman Travis Allen (9%), former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (7%) and former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin (5%).

In a hypothetical general election match-up, Newsom leads Cox 42% to 32%, and Villaraigosa 38% to 21%, with 41% undecided.”
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2018, 04:44:46 pm »

Hopefully it's D vs D so Republicans stay home
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2018, 04:54:53 pm »

At this point I'm decently confident that this won't be D v. D.
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2018, 04:59:29 pm »

This is the first time I've seen Villaraigosa so low in polling. I have no doubt that once he starts advertising that Republicans will be shut out of the top two.
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2018, 06:33:37 pm »

I've been saying it for a while Villaraigosa is collapsing his recent scandals have taken a toll chiang will start to surge there's a big chance it could be Newsom vs Cox or Chaing vs Newsom Villa could sneak back into due to low information hispanic voters but now his chances are much smaller
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2018, 07:08:37 pm »

This is the first time I've seen Villaraigosa so low in polling. I have no doubt that once he starts advertising that Republicans will be shut out of the top two.

The advertising has already started, the primary is in 47 days.
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2018, 08:46:26 pm »

This is the first time I've seen Villaraigosa so low in polling. I have no doubt that once he starts advertising that Republicans will be shut out of the top two.

The advertising has already started, the primary is in 47 days.

That's a fairly long time in a campaign. And considering that Republicans have zero chance of winning the general it really doesn't matter if they make the top two. Meg Whitman spend millions and couldn't win in 2010.
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2018, 09:06:14 pm »

This is the first time I've seen Villaraigosa so low in polling. I have no doubt that once he starts advertising that Republicans will be shut out of the top two.

The advertising has already started, the primary is in 47 days.

That's a fairly long time in a campaign. And considering that Republicans have zero chance of winning the general it really doesn't matter if they make the top two. Meg Whitman spend millions and couldn't win in 2010.

The argument is not that the Republicans have a shot at winning the Governorship, the argument is that having a Republican candidate gets people to turn out for more important races (i.e. the competitive house seats).
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2018, 09:07:48 pm »

If it does end up D vs. D, who do Republicans support?
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2018, 09:15:10 pm »

If it does end up D vs. D, who do Republicans support?

Depends a bit maybe on who the non-Newsom D is, but if many California Republicans couldn't bring themselves to vote for Loretta Sanchez over Kamala Harris (Sanchez clearly did much better with Republicans than she did overall but still lost even the most Republican areas), I doubt they'd vote for any of these Democrats, who are all well to Sanchez's left.
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« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2018, 01:45:49 pm »

These numbers look fishy to me. No one's cared enough about this race to this point for Villaigrossa to fall from the mid-teens to 7%. Also, no one knows enough about who John Chiang is for him to overtake the former mayor of Los Angeles. I think there's a reasonable chance for Cox to end up being second, but there's no reason right now to think he'll have such a decisive margin.

This is the first time I've seen Villaraigosa so low in polling. I have no doubt that once he starts advertising that Republicans will be shut out of the top two.

The advertising has already started, the primary is in 47 days.

Eh... that's a long time. I think everyone on this board realizes that 47 days is more than enough time to get the shifts in support necessary to get to second place in the primary. Anyway, as someone who actually lives in California, I can confidently say the primary hasn't really entered that significantly into the minds of the electorate yet. It will very soon, but it's still being overshadowed by whatever ridiculous thing Trump is doing atm.
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« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2018, 02:20:39 pm »

Which Democrat would do the best in Orange County?

Newsom and Chiang are similar in platform
Villaraigosa is the most moderate and is leading Hispanic voters in the polls
Eastin is the firebrand Bernicrat
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