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  Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004
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Question: Who WINS?
#1
Toomey (R)
 
#2
Hoeffel (D)
 
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Total Voters: 32

Author Topic: Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004  (Read 6186 times)
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Miamiu1027
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« on: September 22, 2005, 08:34:32 pm »

Suppose Pat Toomey completed his David v. Goliath surge by unseating Specter as the GOP Senate nominee.  Would he have defeated Joe Hoeffel?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2005, 08:39:48 pm »

He couldnt have beat Hoeffel. Theres no way. I would predict a 51% to 48% to 1% (Clymer, assuming he'd run) victory for Joe.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2005, 08:45:45 pm »

He couldnt have beat Hoeffel. Theres no way. I would predict a 51% to 48% to 1% (Clymer, assuming he'd run) victory for Joe.

First off, Clymer would not have run if Toomey had been in it.  Clymer was running as an alternative to Specter.  Second, all the buzz in the campaign would have been about Toomey.  He would have gotten a huge boost from media coverage that would have raised his stature so high that Hoeffel would have looked very small by comparison.
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Jake
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2005, 08:50:38 pm »

Clymer ran because he saw Specter as no better than Hoeffel. He wouldn't have run. Hoeffel was also a comparatively weak candidate, even in an open seat race, and it is doubtful whether he'd be able to come up with the extra 8%+ he'd need to win this one.

VOTE BY PARTY ID TOTAL Specter  Hoeffel  Clymer  
Democrat              (41%)      28%        71%      1%
Republican            (39%)      84%          9%      7%
Independent         (20%)     45%        47%       5%

Give Hoeffel 20% more of Democrats and give Toomey Clymer's voters.

Hoeffel adds 8% (.20*41) and Toomey adds 3% (.07*39) and 2% (.05*20)

Toomey - 50%
Hoeffel - 50%

and that's if you presume that the campaign would've gone similar. Certainly, the race wouldn't have been the blowout it was.
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nick
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2005, 09:27:14 pm »

I was going to post this exact same question.  I assume Toomey would have won, but Im not sure how.  Specters base is probably made up of moderate Republicans and Independets.  They would have obviously been pissed off had Specter lost the primary.  Which way would they swing in the General election or would they stay home?  How would this affect the race?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2005, 09:48:38 pm »

It would be close but a Toomey win.

Like Super said - No Clymer. Big media boost.

I'm not saying this would be easy but Toomey would win.


I can't stand the people that say "Toomey was far right! Hoeffel landslide!" You truly don't understand this state if you think Hoeffel would crush Toomey.
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2005, 10:46:00 pm »

Not a landslide. Hoeffel wins by about the same margin Kerry did.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2005, 10:21:51 am »

toomey would have won.

he was a  great candidate.
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Ben.
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2005, 01:03:20 pm »


Clymer ran because he saw Specter as no better than Hoeffel. He wouldn't have run. Hoeffel was also a comparatively weak candidate, even in an open seat race, and it is doubtful whether he'd be able to come up with the extra 8%+ he'd need to win this one.

VOTE BY PARTY ID TOTAL Specter  Hoeffel  Clymer  
Democrat              (41%)      28%        71%      1%
Republican            (39%)      84%          9%      7%
Independent         (20%)     45%        47%       5%

Give Hoeffel 20% more of Democrats and give Toomey Clymer's voters.

Hoeffel adds 8% (.20*41) and Toomey adds 3% (.07*39) and 2% (.05*20)

Toomey - 50%
Hoeffel - 50%

and that's if you presume that the campaign would've gone similar. Certainly, the race wouldn't have been the blowout it was.


I'd agree, in the end the race would be close, a weak, liberal Democrat against a more dynamic conservative republican in a state like PA probably means it goes down to the wire... in the end a toss-up i think, though Kerry's state-wide win would probably help Hoeffel overcome his own weaknesses, but as you say still very very close IMHO.   
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2005, 02:41:14 pm »

It would be close but a Toomey win.

Like Super said - No Clymer. Big media boost.

I'm not saying this would be easy but Toomey would win.


I can't stand the people that say "Toomey was far right! Hoeffel landslide!" You truly don't understand this state if you think Hoeffel would crush Toomey.
i never suggested a landslide. I said that Hoeffel would win.I believe i said it was a win by 3 points
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Max Power
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2005, 02:43:09 pm »

Toomey was far right! Hoeffel landslide!
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2005, 02:47:28 pm »


Toomey isn't any further right than Santorum, who has won 2 statewide races and will win a third in 14 or so months.

After thinking about it, I'll say Tommey wins by about 2-4%.
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Jake
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2005, 03:04:05 pm »

Surely, we also aren't forgetting that no Democrat has been elected as a Senator from PA since 1963. Casey could change that, Hoeffel would not have.
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Ben.
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2005, 03:28:44 pm »


Toomey isn't any further right than Santorum, who has won 2 statewide races and will win a third in 14 or so months.


Really don't understand your persistant belife that Casey will some how throw it away in Pa, sure its possible, but as things stand he's got the edge in what will admitably be a tough race.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2005, 03:55:56 pm »


Toomey isn't any further right than Santorum, who has won 2 statewide races and will win a third in 14 or so months.


Really don't understand your persistant belife that Casey will some how throw it away in Pa, sure its possible, but as things stand he's got the edge in what will admitably be a tough race.

As I have said before, there is something you have to understand; Casey's entire career has hinged on his ability to be he father and he has never won a race against a decent opponent.  The race in '04 against Pepper was a joke.  She had zero chance of winning against even a marginal challenger, let alone a Casey.

Casey is a good and humble man, but his father was those things and a natural leader.  Casey Jr. is not a natural leader, in fact, it doesn't even come second nature to him.  Being strongly pro-life is one of the primary reasons why Casey Sr. was so popular in this state, he could unite a solid East-West cooalition against libertarian Republicans.

Things are different today.  A vast majority of any Democrats support is going to come from Philadelphia, which has become increasingly liberal on social issues, but has suburbs that are economically conservative.  If given no cultural reason to vote Casey, then they will vote Santorum, or for another candidate.  However, if Casey goes to the Left, he will prove to a number of people in the rest of the state that he is not his father.  Once that happens, he will lose their support.

Casey has never run a real campaign, not the kind we are talking about.  Santorum's entire career is based around runnign very strong campaigns and being an unexpected winner.

Casey can win, but I don't think he will win or even that he is the favorite.  If anyone else other than Santorum were this far down at this point, I would say that, even given all of the factors that I mentioned with Casey, that person would be toast.  Santorum can fight back, and even if Casey wins, it won't be by much.
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Max Power
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2005, 04:18:43 pm »


Toomey isn't any further right than Santorum, who has won 2 statewide races and will win a third in 14 or so months.

After thinking about it, I'll say Tommey wins by about 2-4%.

I can't stand the people that say "Toomey was far right! Hoeffel landslide!"

Tongue Tongue

I know, I was joking. I think Toomey would have the Specter vote bite him in the ass, and Hoeffel would moderate a bit.
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nini2287
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2005, 11:57:42 am »

It would be a VERY close election, no more than 2 points either way.  I'll be optomistic though and say Hoeffel would win.
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BRTD
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2005, 02:17:47 pm »

Surely, we also aren't forgetting that no Democrat has been elected as a Senator from PA since 1963. Casey could change that, Hoeffel would not have.

Um, Wofford?
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2005, 02:21:02 pm »

Um, Wofford was appointed by Casey, not elected. Santorum defeated him in 1994.
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BRTD
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2005, 02:23:09 pm »

There was a special election after he was appointed, and he won.

This type of argument is rather flimsy anyway though. You would've definately laughed if I used that claim to argue Bush had no chance at winning my state last year.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2005, 03:32:35 pm »

There was a special election after he was appointed, and he won.


And I will never be able to understand how he won by so much (I understand he was a Casey appointee and Casey was popular but it still doesn't make sense).
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Ben.
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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2005, 06:05:17 am »


Casey can win, but I don't think he will win or even that he is the favorite.  If anyone else other than Santorum were this far down at this point, I would say that, even given all of the factors that I mentioned with Casey, that person would be toast.  Santorum can fight back, and even if Casey wins, it won't be by much.


I'd agree that it'll be far far closer than the polls would suggest just now, but I don't agree that Santorum's campaigning 'form' and plentiful supply of cash will be enough to overcome Casey’s big lead in the polls, Santorum’s own unpopularity and the unpopularity of the GOP both nationally and in PA… narrow the gap? Yes (by quite a bit I would expect) actually beat Casey? IMHO no.     
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Ben.
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2005, 06:08:22 am »


And I will never be able to understand how he won by so much (I understand he was a Casey appointee and Casey was popular but it still doesn't make sense).


Two words, James Carville

...the PA special election election was one of Carville's last big races IIRC.
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