Toomey isn't any further right than Santorum, who has won 2 statewide races and will win a third in 14 or so months.
Really don't understand your persistant belife that Casey will some how throw it away in Pa, sure its possible, but as things stand he's got the edge in what will admitably be a tough race.
As I have said before, there is something you have to understand; Casey's entire career has hinged on his ability to be he father and he has never won a race against a decent opponent. The race in '04 against Pepper was a joke. She had zero chance of winning against even a marginal challenger, let alone a Casey.
Casey is a good and humble man, but his father was those things and a natural leader. Casey Jr. is not a natural leader, in fact, it doesn't even come second nature to him. Being strongly pro-life is one of the primary reasons why Casey Sr. was so popular in this state, he could unite a solid East-West cooalition against libertarian Republicans.
Things are different today. A vast majority of any Democrats support is going to come from Philadelphia, which has become increasingly liberal on social issues, but has suburbs that are economically conservative. If given no cultural reason to vote Casey, then they will vote Santorum, or for another candidate. However, if Casey goes to the Left, he will prove to a number of people in the rest of the state that he is not his father. Once that happens, he will lose their support.
Casey has never run a real campaign, not the kind we are talking about. Santorum's entire career is based around runnign very strong campaigns and being an unexpected winner.
Casey can win, but I don't think he
will win or even that he is the favorite. If anyone else other than Santorum were this far down at this point, I would say that, even given all of the factors that I mentioned with Casey, that person would be toast. Santorum can fight back, and even if Casey wins, it won't be by much.
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