AZ-Magellan (R): McSally leads GOP primary field

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://magellanstrategies.com/arizona-2018-senate-republican-primary-survey-2-2/

Martha McSally - 36%
Joe Arpaio - 26%
Kelli Ward - 25%
Other - 6%
Undecided - 7%

[LimoLiberal]

McSally gonna win the primary.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Very solid for McSally. Good to see some relative sanity in the Republican Party.

[BudgieForce]

Ward probably wants to kill Arpaio.

[Webnicz]

Good for her, McSally better hope one of them doesn’t drop out otherwise she’s screwed. Whoever wins the primary will be pretty damaged.

I think the most interesting part is that only 7% have not made up their minds yet, it is possible but could also indicate McSally fluff numbers.

[Pollster]

McSally pretty clearly benefiting from a split field - if one drops out or switches to a potentially open seat, she has a major problem.

[MT Treasurer]

Tbf, this race is Likely D even with McSally.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tbf, this race is Likely D even with McSally.

[UncleSam]

If McSally wins she wins the General IMO, AZ is a much more Republican State than the 2016 presidential election suggests. If Ward or Arpaio win I think Sienna will stomp them though.

As somber as it is I think a McCain death or retirement would result in two senate gains for Dems when Ward switches to the other race. The deadline for that would be May 30th right?

[PoliticalShelter]

I would like it had they ask then on who their second choice would be, would be interesting to see how many Airpao/Ward voters would actually choose McSally as their second choice.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

McSally's sold out to trump too much to have moderate cred.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very solid for McSally. Good to see some relative sanity in the Republican Party.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Very solid for McSally. Good to see some relative sanity in the Republican Party.

[Ronnie]

Very solid for McSally. Good to see some relative sanity in the Republican Party.

You guys are giving GOP primary voters too much credit.  The only reason she's winning is that both Arpaio and Ward are running.  If one of them drops out soon, then it's very unlikely McSally will be able to win.

[Bidenworth2020]

ward, just drop out, let king joe take the lead.

[JG]

Very solid for McSally. Good to see some relative sanity in the Republican Party.

You guys are giving GOP primary voters too much credit.  The only reason she's winning is that both Arpaio and Ward are running.  If one of them drops out soon, then it's very unlikely McSally will be able to win.

Yes. I'm not sure how the fact that two thirds of the GOP primary voters are ready to send some lunatics to Congress is supposed to be reassuring.

[RINO Tom]

Very solid for McSally. Good to see some relative sanity in the Republican Party.

You guys are giving GOP primary voters too much credit.  The only reason she's winning is that both Arpaio and Ward are running.  If one of them drops out soon, then it's very unlikely McSally will be able to win.

Yes. I'm not sure how the fact that two thirds of the GOP primary voters are ready to send some lunatics to Congress is supposed to be reassuring.

Seems about as relevant as the fact that a clear majority of Republicans did not want Donald Trump to be the nominee ... doesn't really matter, does it?

[mds32]

McSally likely wins the general if she holds on and wins here.

[Ye We Can]

Excellent news for Martha McSenator... err I mean McSally. Excited to see her win.

[TheSaint250]

No surprise

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Good to see McSally winning, but Joe Arpairo at 67% favorable among GOP primary voters (higher than McSally) is a huge YIKES.

If people thought Arpairo could win the race, I think they would vote for him.

[Canis]

Mcsally winning Evangelicals is surprising but I see this primary carrying out like the Pritzker vs Kennedy & Biss Primary if Kennedy had dropped out Biss definitely could have won it and vice versa if ward or apriao drops out Mcsally is finished plus the undecideds are pretty evangelical from the cross tabs while Mcsally is winning that group it isn't by much so a upset is possible here's another thing from the poll

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Shame to see so much hate for Mccain among the AZ gop
And flakes numbers are even worse

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The only popular republican in AZ is Ducey the congressional Republicans are doing abysmally

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[Webnicz]

McSally likely wins the general if she holds on and wins here.

She has become a Kelli Ward herself. She chose to go far right as opposed to moderate to win her primary which will hurt big time in the general. Her recent gaffes aside lets not forget to mention

her name rec is slim to none among general election voters in the Phoenix metro

she has half the amount of COH as her general election opponent, most of her current cash she will have to spend on the primary.

[Webnicz]

Some interesting food for thought on Arpaio:

-He won 65% of his primary election in 2016 (the same electorate that will be voting in this primary)
-He has huge name recognition boost
-Republicans love the man (remember at the AZ rally when Trump first brought up a pardon and the entire crowd went nuts?)

For these reasons I believe he is most likely to win Maricopa county despite loosing statewide. If 65% voted for him over Dan Saban (a legitimate primary opponent) why would they dump him now?

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Some things people should get through their thick skulls:

1. Marthy McSally is no less conservative than her challengers; she's just less prone to say or do stupid things.  If anything, she's probably a bigger whore for the military-industrial complex than Ward or Arpaio would be.
2. There is no "relative sanity" in the Republican Party and there never will be until it implodes and is forced to rebuild itself.