Why did George H.W. Bush lose in 1992?

[twenty42]

Irrespective of candidates and campaigns, HW was fighting an extremely uphill battle against historical trends alone. Republicans were not only running for their fourth consecutive term in the White House, but also doing so in the wake of a 10-point Dem swing in 1988 and decisive Dem victories in the 1990 midterms. I know we like to think of 1992 as a masterful, against-the-odds victory for Clinton, but realistically the dam had been getting ready to break for a while.

To me, the most interesting thing about 1992 was the rampant distaste for both major political parties that ignited the surge for Perot. Despite the bad economy and Republican fatigue, there were still millions of Democrats who rejected Clinton due to his scandals and then-Bohemian centrism. This is unimaginable in today’s polarized political atmosphere, where the two most unpopular presidential candidates in history still both managed to score at least 46% of the PV.

[twenty42]

I know we like to think of 1992 as a masterful, against-the-odds victory for Clinton, but realistically the dam had been getting ready to break for a while.

I think what people say was surprising was that Clinton got nominated.

If you watch the Election Night returns on YouTube, you'll hear the commentators over and over again talk about how shocking the D wave was that night after R's were doing so well a year ago. This stood in stark contrast to 2008, where it seemed like the media was just going through the motions to get to the big moment at 11:00.