Gravis-IN (LV): Donnelly +18/+10

[Gass3268]

Joe Donnelly - 50%
Todd Rokita - 32%

Joe Donnelly - 46%
Luke Messer - 36%

Mike Braun - 26%
Todd Rokita - 16%
Luke Messer - 13%

Trump approval: 47%-48%

Governor Holcomb approval: 52%-28%

Generic House:
GOP - 49%
Dem - 37%

Source

[Doimper]

Lean D

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Kinda skewed by the rough GOP primary. The winner of that rumble will consolidate the right, especially with the generic numbers being roughly where they were in 2016.

[KingSweden]

Whoa!!!

I mean, lolgravis, but still. Wonder why Braun isn’t on here?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

inb4 king lear: This can't be accurate because this race is Likely Republican in my ratings

[LimoLiberal]

Great Poll!

[BudgieForce]

That doesn't sound right.

[Holmes]

inb4 king lear: This can't be accurate because this race is Likely Republican in my ratings

He's banned.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I can see the GOP coalescing around Messer now that he has shown himself to be the most electable. Donnelly better watch his back.

[ON Progressive]

Those are a lot better numbers for Donnelly than I expected. Good to see.

[mds32]

Whoa!!!

I mean, lolgravis, but still. Wonder why Braun isn’t on here?

Probably because no one thinks he'll win?

[Dr. Arch]

LMAO, if Donnelly is anywhere close to this, we might be looking at a complete competitive/semi-competitive senate seat sweep, with TN and TX being real possibilities.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Highly doubting this poll... R's will probably do much better once name recog goes up.

Also, lolgravis

[Pandaguineapig]

Sample is trump +8 (He won by 19)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Highly doubting this poll... R's will probably do much better once name recog goes up.

Also, lolgravis

Yep, the Trump approvals alone should be a red flag. I suggest everyone kill the blue wave excitement immediately.

[Gass3268]

Sample is trump +8 (He won by 19)

Wow, so many Trump voters are planning on not voting.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Sample is trump +8 (He won by 19)

That is affected by two things.

1. People tend to forget who they voted for when things go badly.

2. Enthusiasm and turnout - People tend to not turn out when things are going badly.

It doesn't mean they for sure won't vote in November, just they as of now they either aren't voting or aren't showing up in the polls.

[LimoLiberal]

Sample is trump +8 (He won by 19)

UNSKEW UNSKEW UNSKEW

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My take on this is the following:

1. The Messer - Rokita crap fest has turned this race into a redux of WI 1992 Dem Primary, Iowa 2004 Dem Pres Caucus and the 2012 MO GOP Senate primary. Namely, the two front runners nuke each other and a third candidate marches past them while they are dropping the tactical nukes on each other.

2. Because of said nuking, and other factors as well, both Messer and Rokita are horrible general election candidates. Especially Rokita!

[Gustaf]

For reference, the GOP won the 2016 Congressional PV by 15 and lead the GCB by 12 here. So that is a little weird compared to the Trump approval and the senate numbers.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

For reference, the GOP won the 2016 Congressional PV by 15 and lead the GCB by 12 here. So that is a little weird compared to the Trump approval and the senate numbers.

Yep, 2016 is back and any number showing otherwise should always be questioned.

[KingSweden]

Whoa!!!

I mean, lolgravis, but still. Wonder why Braun isn’t on here?

Probably because no one thinks he'll win?

Is there polling that backs that up? It’s my understanding that he has an excellent chance to sneak up the middle as Messer and Rokita go scorched earth on each other

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

For reference, the GOP won the 2016 Congressional PV by 15 and lead the GCB by 12 here. So that is a little weird compared to the Trump approval and the senate numbers.

The last 3 polls of this state had Trump at +10, +12 and +14 I think. Indiana, which reported first (along with Kentucky but that was less helpful) was the leading indicator for me at least on election night that Trump under polled in the Midwest, was certainly on track to win Iowa and Ohio, and be competitive in the rust belt swing states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Whoa!!!

I mean, lolgravis, but still. Wonder why Braun isn’t on here?

Probably because no one thinks he'll win?

Is there polling that backs that up? It’s my understanding that he has an excellent chance to sneak up the middle as Messer and Rokita go scorched earth on each other

They probably didn't consider the possibility when the poll was composed and started.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Whoa!!!

I mean, lolgravis, but still.