Gravis-IN (LV): Donnelly +18/+10

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Sample is trump +8 (He won by 19)

That is affected by two things.

1. People tend to forget who they voted for when things go badly.

2. Enthusiasm and turnout - People tend to not turn out when things are going badly.

It doesn't mean they for sure won't vote in November, just they as of now they either aren't voting or aren't showing up in the polls.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My take on this is the following:

1. The Messer - Rokita crap fest has turned this race into a redux of WI 1992 Dem Primary, Iowa 2004 Dem Pres Caucus and the 2012 MO GOP Senate primary. Namely, the two front runners nuke each other and a third candidate marches past them while they are dropping the tactical nukes on each other.

2. Because of said nuking, and other factors as well, both Messer and Rokita are horrible general election candidates. Especially Rokita!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

For reference, the GOP won the 2016 Congressional PV by 15 and lead the GCB by 12 here. So that is a little weird compared to the Trump approval and the senate numbers.

The last 3 polls of this state had Trump at +10, +12 and +14 I think. Indiana, which reported first (along with Kentucky but that was less helpful) was the leading indicator for me at least on election night that Trump under polled in the Midwest, was certainly on track to win Iowa and Ohio, and be competitive in the rust belt swing states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Whoa!!!

I mean, lolgravis, but still. Wonder why Braun isn’t on here?

Probably because no one thinks he'll win?

Is there polling that backs that up? It’s my understanding that he has an excellent chance to sneak up the middle as Messer and Rokita go scorched earth on each other

They probably didn't consider the possibility when the poll was composed and started.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a great poll for Braun, shows him leading the primary AND shows his 2 opponents losing by double digits to Donnelly

Indeed and he isn't measured at all. So he can cite this poll as proof that he is only one who can win. If polled, he would probably be way behind because of name recognition.