Turkish snap election, June 2018

[jaichind]

Aren't İYİ and the Felicity Party in an alliance with the CHP, so that they would benefit from the new law as well, in the same way the MHP would?

In any case case İnce seems to be a strong candidate who can attract many voters, mainly from İYİ of course.

Good point.  I forgot about that.  So no risk of İYİ falling below 10%.  So the party at risk is really HDP.  It seems the opposition alliance is CHP-İYİ-SP-DP with the later two having a fairly small voting base. 

[palandio]

Yes, HDP is at risk. MHP, İYİ and SP are at risk, too, because they will find it difficult to reach the d'Hondt quota in many electoral districts.

I think that the DP isn't running with their own lists, but has candidates on the İYİ lists. This makes sense because as far as I understand (I'm really not sure), the different lists in one alliance are still treated separately when the seats in each electoral district are distributed according to the d'Hondt method. Therefore the same number of votes going to one list is often better than the same number of votes going to several lists running as one alliance. Considering this running with three lists (CHP, İYİ[incl. DP], SP) against two lists (AKP, MHP) already puts you in a disadvantage, but the idea is probably that an SP that is given prominent presence could draw discontent Islamist voters from AKP who would otherwise not vote CHP or İYİ.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout among Turks abroad in Austria and Germany is very low so far:

Only 24% have voted in both countries so far, with only 6 days left to vote for those abroad.

For the constitutional referendum last year, about 50% voted in both countries.

http://orf.at/stories/2442858

Could be a bad sign for Erdogan.

[BBD]

Turnout among Turks abroad in Austria and Germany is very low so far:

Only 24% have voted in both countries so far, with only 6 days left to vote for those abroad.

For the constitutional referendum last year, about 50% voted in both countries.

http://orf.at/stories/2442858

Could be a bad sign for Erdogan.

Don't worry, the electoral fraud will make up for it.

[jaichind]

In many ways Erdoğan calling an early election is a genius move.  There are all sorts of economic storm clouds on the horizon but currently the labor market is still robust.  But it is clear when the Turkey central bank raised interest rates from 8% to 13.6% earlier this month that 2019 will see a very significant economic slowdown.  And that is not all as TRY started falling again this week which means more action might be needed.  So to have the election in late 2019 would be a disaster for Erdoğan and AKP given the likely economic circumstances.  A early election avoids this problem while the average voter are still experiencing a fairly positive economic environment. 

[Tender Branson]

In many ways Erdoğan calling an early election is a genius move.  There are all sorts of economic storm clouds on the horizon but currently the labor market is still robust.  But it is clear when the Turkey central bank raised interest rates from 8% to 13.6% earlier this month that 2019 will see a very significant economic slowdown.  And that is not all as TRY started falling again this week which means more action might be needed.  So to have the election in late 2019 would be a disaster for Erdoğan and AKP given the likely economic circumstances.  A early election avoids this problem while the average voter are still experiencing a fairly positive economic environment. 

Despite all of this, there could still be some kind of Erdogan-fatigue right now - which is strong enough this time to keep him below 50% in a runoff. A bit unlikely, but not totally out of question.

Anyway, I'd applaud the Turkish voters if they have the balls to vote him out.

[Tender Branson]

Because of low turnout so far, the AKP in Austria and Germany is now busing Turkish citizens to the consulates in Vienna and elsewhere.

But it seems there's generally less enthusiasm this time ...

Also, on Wikipedia, the latest polls show that Erdogan has dropped back a bit to 42-46% of the vote and the AKP to as low as 40%.

Are they getting nervous ? Even Erdogan and his cronies cannot fake millions of additional votes that are needed for a win, when he has no more than 45-48% support for the runoff.

[ON Progressive]

What would be causing that drop in enthusiasm among overseas voters?

[Tender Branson]

What would be causing that drop in enthusiasm among overseas voters?

Hard to tell ...

Maybe some of the previous voters have finally come to the conclusion that it's better for them to integrate somewhat into our societies where they live, rather than back this Islamo-Fascist abroad.

But this is unlikely.

Maybe there's just some general Erdogan-fatigue after 15 or so years. Or they simply will vote in the last few days.

[Oryxslayer]

What would be causing that drop in enthusiasm among overseas voters?

Well, if there is a general drop in enthusiasm among Erdogan/AKP supporters it would be reflected quite strong in the pro-Erdogan overseas communities. Why would there be a general drop though...I suspect it has something to do with the fact voters never really like being called to the polls for snap elections. Especially snap elections designed to reinforce the ruling party like 2017's UK election.

[ON Progressive]

I can definitely see there being fatigue. This is the fourth major Turkish election in three years (June 2015, November 2015, 2017 referendum, this election), and we have seen voter fatigue over less.

[Tender Branson]

I can definitely see there being fatigue. This is the fourth major Turkish election in three years (June 2015, November 2015, 2017 referendum, this election), and we have seen voter fatigue over less.

Yepp.

On the other hand, his war-mongering in Syria in the Kurdish-held areas that the Turkish army occupied, could bail him out once more for a last time ... it's very popular with the nationalist Turk crowd.

You know: "We need more space to live." => like Hitler said.

[Tender Branson]

Every day, I grow a bit more confident that Erdogan could be ousted next Sunday.

This article from the "Kurier" mentions that Ince (his popular, main opponent) recently held a very huge rally in Kayseri, a city which voted for the AKP over the CHP by a 67-12 margin last time - indicating a big enthusiasm for the populist Social Democrat.

At the rally, Ince called Erdogan "tired" and "politically bankrupt".

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/erdogan-muede-und-politisch-bankrott/400052174

[ON Progressive]

I'm still not too confident because this is Turkey, after all. My expectations are roughly zero when it comes to anything good from Turkish elections.

[Tender Branson]

The "Standard" newspaper has visited the Turkish consulate in Vienna, where Turkish citizens can vote between 9am and 9pm each day (until Tuesday).



They talked with voters as well. While pro-Erdogan voters are still fairly confident that he/AKP will reach absolute majorities, the voters of the opposition parties are also pretty optimistic this time. Since Austria is an Erdogan-stronghold (more than 80% voted for him in 2014), this should be good news for the opposition candidates. Turnout was described as a "steady flow throughout the day", but not "very high".

Pro-Erdogan voters also said that the recent actions by ÖVP-FPÖ to close some extremist Turkish/Saudi-financed mosques and the deportations of imams made them more likely to vote for him (which probably also was ÖVP/FPÖ's secret intent).

https://derstandard.at/2000081583218/Indirekte-Wahlkampfhilfe-fuer-Erdogan

[jaichind]

In many ways Erdoğan calling an early election is a genius move.  There are all sorts of economic storm clouds on the horizon but currently the labor market is still robust.  But it is clear when the Turkey central bank raised interest rates from 8% to 13.6% earlier this month that 2019 will see a very significant economic slowdown.  And that is not all as TRY started falling again this week which means more action might be needed.  So to have the election in late 2019 would be a disaster for Erdoğan and AKP given the likely economic circumstances.  A early election avoids this problem while the average voter are still experiencing a fairly positive economic environment. 

Despite all of this, there could still be some kind of Erdogan-fatigue right now - which is strong enough this time to keep him below 50% in a runoff. A bit unlikely, but not totally out of question.

Anyway, I'd applaud the Turkish voters if they have the balls to vote him out.

Totally true.  I agree that whereas a couple of months ago it seemed  Erdoğan was going to win for show I can now see how he can lose.   My point is that no matter what he will do better in June 2018 vs Nov 2019 when the economic situation will be for sure a lot worse than today.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout among Turks abroad as of yesterday (they still have until tomorrow to vote):

Austria: 42.4%
Germany: 40.7%
Switzerland: 36.8%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany and 57.1% in Switzerland.

So, turnout will be slightly lower here and in Germany and significantly lower in Switzerland (which has a high anti-Erdogan Kurdish population).

So, in a sense, these numbers might be good for Erdogan ?

[BBD]

Lower turnout might mean that (among Turkish expats) neither side, Erdogan supporters, or the opposition are particularly enthused. I suspect the first - there simply isn't as much excitement for the snap election as the referendum, important as it is, both overseas and at home.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day for Turks abroad to vote.

Turnout until yesterday evening (massive uptick in Switzerland compared with Sunday numbers):

Austria: 47.7%
Germany: 46.1%
Switzerland: 49.2%
Worldwide: 45.3%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany, 57.1% in Switzerland and 47.9% worldwide.

There's also no evidence in these numbers that ÖVP-FPÖ's decision to close some Turkish-financed mosques is increasing turnout among Turks here.

[ON Progressive]

So the overseas turnout will be higher than 2017 in the end? That's not good news at all.

[Tender Branson]

So the overseas turnout will be higher than 2017 in the end? That's not good news at all.

Nobody knows ... it's always very hard to read anything out of turnout reports. Remember when the high turnout was supposed to help Hillary ?

[ON Progressive]

So the overseas turnout will be higher than 2017 in the end? That's not good news at all.

Nobody knows ... it's always very hard to read anything out of turnout reports. Remember when the high turnout was supposed to help Hillary ?

But we know the overseas vote is more pro-Erdogan than the in-country vote.

Granted, there is one poll of German Turkish voters that has Erdogan under 50, which would be big if true considering those same voters were 63% yes in the referendum.

[jaichind]

Erdogan is promising to push down interest rates if he is re-elected which has sent TRY falling last few days.  Erdogan is also promising to end the state of emergency if he wins.  All this seems to indicate that his campaign is in trouble and that some sort of setback  6/24 is possible even likely. When an incumbent says "re-elected me and I will do X" it is usually a sign of desperation because "if X is so great why not do it now?"

[ingemann]

All hail Neo-Ottomanism and the restoration of Sultan Erdogan!

At its zenith, the Ottoman Empire was a bastion of technological innovation and (relative) amounts of religious and cultural tolerance.

I know the point you're trying to make, but I just had to.....

The Ottoman Empire was never a bastion of technological innovation, as for their religious "tolerance", Christians and Jews was second class citizens, there was attempted forced conversion of non-Sunni Muslims and Yazidi's was often attecked slaughtered, enslaved and forced converted by the Ottomans.

There was nothing positive about the Ottoman Empire, it only functioned through continued raiding and plundering, and when further expansion became impossible, they turned the looting inward. In the 17th century a period where the Ottoman Balkans was at peace, it saw a fall in population greater than Germany's under the 30 Year War.

There's a reason that people in the Balkans who was under Austrian rule have some nostalgia toward the Habsburg, while only the Bosniaks have any positive view of the Ottoman, even the Albanians a mostly Muslim people celebrate a Catholic prince who fought the Ottomans as their national hero.

[Tender Branson]

Final turnout:

Austria: 51.8%
Germany: 49.7%
Switzerland: 56.7%
Worldwide: 48.8%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany, 57.1% in Switzerland and 47.9% worldwide.

So, no big changes.