Turkish snap election, June 2018

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Erdogan has called a new election (both presidential and parliamentary). This premature move may be an attempt to prevent popular new MHP-split, the "Good Party" (yes, that's really how it's translated in English) led by Meral Akşener, from becoming too established. (It seems they won't be able to run in the parliamentary elections).

[DavidB.]

... and it also takes place in anticipation of the inevitable economic downturn that will take place in the coming years, as the current pace of economic growth (7.5%) is unsustainable. Anyway, all very cynical reasons, and it is sad to witness Turkey's descent into dictatorship.

Also fully expecting the AKP to receive more votes from my neighborhood than the VVD did.

[Oryxslayer]

All hail Neo-Ottomanism and the restoration of Sultan Erdogan!

[Former President tack50]

Any chance, even if it's a remote one, that Erdogan and AKP lose their majority?

They apparently lost it in June 2015 (regained it in November though) and Erdogan himself only got 52% of the vote in 2014 so I guess it's not that far fetched?

[jaichind]

I assume AKP will run in an alliance with MHP.  If so as long as İYİ  cannot run I cannot see how AKP-MHP does not get a majority.  Both CHP and HDP have their caps in terms of support.

[jaichind]

TRY did go up 2% on the news of snap election.  It seems market expects a AKP victory which will consolidate Erdogan's power for several years.

[Former President tack50]

I assume AKP will run in an alliance with MHP.  If so as long as İYİ  cannot run I cannot see how AKP-MHP does not get a majority.  Both CHP and HDP have their caps in terms of support.

Has MHP become an Erdogan/AKP puppet by now? If so then yeah, Turkey is ed (though I guess maybe they can still miss a 2/3 supermajority?)

If not, I guess maybe there's a slim chance if it becomes "everyone against Erdogan".

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I assume AKP will run in an alliance with MHP.  If so as long as İYİ  cannot run I cannot see how AKP-MHP does not get a majority.  Both CHP and HDP have their caps in terms of support.

Has MHP become an Erdogan/AKP puppet by now?

In answer to your question, yes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Alliance_(Turkey)

The big problem for the opposition is whether they can form that precious alliance around Akşener. The Kurds, for example, are traditionally much less inclined to support the opposition than the Islamists. I assume Erdogan has lost much of his fanbase amongst conservative Kurds given that he is no longer the person who promised relative peace, but whether they can find it in their hearts to support somebody with Akşener's history and pedigree is another matter.

[SPQR]

According to The Guardian, tomorrow opposition parties will announce that they join forces for June's elections.
Will this make a difference at all (eg, Hungarian elections)?

[jaichind]

According to The Guardian, tomorrow opposition parties will announce that they join forces for June's elections.
Will this make a difference at all (eg, Hungarian elections)?

When they say opposition parties I assume they mean CHP İYİ and HDP.  Not sure this is that relevant.  It seems to beat AKP it is key that CHP İYİ and HDP all cross 10% in the parliamentary vote.  It seems all three are in a position to do that with the exception of HDP.  So I guess a CHP-İYİ-HDP joint list could ensure that.  Not sure these 3 parties base would accept this. 

Of course this could be about the Prez election.  It seems likely that it is unlikely Erdoğan would lose but a opposition goal is to force a second round.  If so a joint candidate makes it more likely that Erdoğan would win on the first round due to defections when every party running their own candidate would give a fair chance to assess which opposition candidate is actually the most popular.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Not the HDP (they're not going to join an alliance with the rest). It's CHP, IYI and some small others (the Islamist Party Felicity, the successor to the long line of banned Islamist parties led by Necmettin Erbakan, the original leader of the Turkish Islamists until Erdogan came along and made it cool; and the Democrats: the successor party to True Path, the centre-right party of PM's Tansu Ciller and Suleyman Demirel, itself the successor to the original Democrats of Adnan Menderes). The left-nationalist Patriotic Party was apparently going to join, but then they were ditched.

Also the Great Union Party (the political arm of the fascistic Grey Wolves organisation) has apparently been accepted as part of the AKP-MHP alliance.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The big problem for CHP is the huge division in its ranks between progressives and nationalists (which is not the same as the secular-religious division). For the latter, the CHP's brief dalliance with HDP was unforgivable - either motivated hrough doctrinaire Kemalism or simple fear of the hated PKK, which many believe to be intrinsically tied with HDP. For the former, the CHP should be a left-liberal party which would rule out alliances with the right and try to harness the "Gezi spirit" and the various orgs that sprung from it, many of which do not see themselves as particularly Kemalist and are on friendly terms with the HDP's cadre.

[palandio]

CHP nominates presidential candidate Muharrem İnce, parlamentarian from Yalova.

[The Free North]

All hail Neo-Ottomanism and the restoration of Sultan Erdogan!

At its zenith, the Ottoman Empire was a bastion of technological innovation and (relative) amounts of religious and cultural tolerance.

I know the point you're trying to make, but I just had to.....

[jaichind]

Turkey Heads Toward a Currency Crisis as Lira Goes Into Freefall

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/turkey-heads-toward-a-currency-crisis-as-lira-goes-into-freefall

The Central bank refuses to raise rates fearing that it would hurt the economy before the election but might have no choice to head off a major crisis which would dramatically increase the debt burden of Turkish companies. 

[Dan the Roman]

All hail Neo-Ottomanism and the restoration of Sultan Erdogan!

At its zenith, the Ottoman Empire was a bastion of technological innovation and (relative) amounts of religious and cultural tolerance.

I know the point you're trying to make, but I just had to.....

Latter part has some truth in the capital, but it was still an absolute theocracy with no concept of individual(as opposed to communal) rights in a western sense. Anyone could be killed at any moment for any reason, as opposed to say France, England, Austria, or even to some degree Russia where you at least needed a pretext. And in the provinces it was a demographic and economic disaster. Tax farming, lack of any sort of paid military presence, and the weakness of the center meant that banditry was endemic, and much of the Balkans was reduced to a desert. Hungary's population fell by almost two thirds in the century and a half of Ottoman rule.

[Oryxslayer]

I was also more referring to this rather then the old empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-Ottomanism

[jaichind]

Turkey central bank did an emergency rate hike which stemmed the TRY rout .  Most likely will not last long with US Fed more likely to raise rates in the future.  Another big reason is the market has pretty much priced in an Erdogan victory both in Pres and Legislative elections which implies more policy uncertainty with an  Erdogan bias toward  lower interest rates.

[windjammer]

So now it's more likely than not there would be a run off?

[BBD]

This is a really great article. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/05/29/does-turkeys-opposition-have-a-chance-at-beating-erdogans-akp-in-june/

[jaichind]

Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.

[BBD]

Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.

Unsurprising - she's barely received any attention from the mainstream news networks. Erdogan probably believes that she would be a more threatening challenger in the runoff. I just hope that both HDP and Iyi stay above the 10% threshold.

[jaichind]

I think a major risk to Erdoğan-AKP would be the AKP alliance with MHP would turn off Kurdish voters.  If Erdoğan-AKP have an below average election night this factor could make the difference between victory and defeat for Erdoğan-AKP.

[palandio]

Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.

Unsurprising - she's barely received any attention from the mainstream news networks. Erdogan probably believes that she would be a more threatening challenger in the runoff. I just hope that both HDP and Iyi stay above the 10% threshold.

Aren't İYİ and the Felicity Party in an alliance with the CHP, so that they would benefit from the new law as well, in the same way the MHP would?

In any case case İnce seems to be a strong candidate who can attract many voters, mainly from İYİ of course.

[BBD]

Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.

Unsurprising - she's barely received any attention from the mainstream news networks. Erdogan probably believes that she would be a more threatening challenger in the runoff. I just hope that both HDP and Iyi stay above the 10% threshold.

Aren't İYİ and the Felicity Party in an alliance with the CHP, so that they would benefit from the new law as well, in the same way the MHP would?

In any case case İnce seems to be a strong candidate who can attract many voters, mainly from İYİ of course.

Yep. The CHP loaned 15 MPs to Iyi to allow them to run in the elections.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-05-02/turkish-opposition-parties-to-sign-four-way-election-alliance-on-thursday-ntv

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/iyi-party-joined-15-mps-approved-run-turkey-polls-180422145859636.html


Ince really does have the capability to hold down both nationalist-secularist voters and Kurdish voters in the runoff. He has a long reputation of being a staunch Kemalist, but he was one of the few CHP MPs who voted against removing immunity for HDP MPs. He just had a pretty large rally in Diyarbakir. Tayyip might not be quaking in his boots yet, but he underestimates Ince at his own peril.