Turkish snap election, June 2018

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incidentally, this is why those Turkish citizens in the diaspora who vote in Turkish elections vote solidly AKP unless Kurdish: they are themselves (or their families are) overwhelmingly from the Anatolian interior. I also have to take issue with the assertion that a member of the diaspora who bothers to fill out a ballot for the AKP is necessarily 'poorly integrated' or hostile to European liberal norms: it's rather telling that attempts to create AKP Abroad type parties in the relevant countries have fallen flat, except for the Netherlands. I think the situation is more like that with British Hindus, who at present overwhelmingly support the BJP for reasons of sentiment and group identity.

[DavidB.]

I also have to take issue with the assertion that a member of the diaspora who bothers to fill out a ballot for the AKP is necessarily 'poorly integrated' or hostile to European liberal norms: it's rather telling that attempts to create AKP Abroad type parties in the relevant countries have fallen flat, except for the Netherlands.

The only other Western European countries with a sufficiently significant Turkish population are Germany, Austria and Belgium. The former two have an electoral threshold of 5% and 4% respectively, making it much more difficult for such a party to break through (and deterring voters in the first place); in Belgium such a party would have to reach 5% on a district level.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, those big bad Turks are so unforgivable for supporting Erdogan. Now tell me again how Orban is the lesser evil or whatever bullsh*t rationalization you used to excuse his acting exactly like Erdogan.

Surely you see that in my view, the survival of Europe as we know it depends on maintaining our identities and on maintaining native majorities in our countries.

Hungary is the main EU member state pushing for an end to mass immigration and calling for renewed appreciation for our national heritage. Turkey, on the other hand, is a non-European country with a regime fundamentally hostile to European civilization, as it is Islamist (and therefore expansive) in nature. Ankara actively incites its diaspora to side with Turkey and not with the countries they immigrated to.

Put differently, a Hungarian in the Netherlands voting for Orbán does a great service to the Dutch people, as a vote for Hungary to maintain its identity is also a vote for the Netherlands to maintain its identity. Meanwhile, a Turk in the Netherlands voting for AK does a great disservice to the Dutch people, as the Turkish regime is hostile to the Dutch people, to the Netherlands, and to European civilization.

So this has nothing to do about holding leaders to a universal standard of moral behavior, and everything to do with Schmittian friend/enemy distinctions. Thanks for spelling that out, but if it's truly just a matter of "us versus them" then please spare us the moral outrage.

[DavidB.]

So this has nothing to do about holding leaders to a universal standard of moral behavior, and everything to do with Schmittian friend/enemy distinctions. Thanks for spelling that out, but if it's truly just a matter of "us versus them" then please spare us the moral outrage.

I'm not in the business of "moral outrage". We brought this disaster on ourselves. I don't blame unintegrated Turkish voters for voting for AK. Their behavior is indefensible but the consequence of our own failure: I blame ourselves for taking them in and granting them European citizenship. They are being hypocritical for voting for Erdogan and living in our free countries, but we are facilitating this hypocrisy by making it more attractive for them to live here than there.

[jaichind]

A regression of the 2015 vote and 2018 vote with the 2017 referendum results seems to indicate that most of the 2018 MHP vote came from 2015 AKP voters.  Most of the 2017 MHP No voters on the referendum went over to IYI while the 2017 MHP Yes voters stayed in MHP.   Some of the 2017 Kurdish HDP Yes voters also went over to AKP.

Erdoğan's victory was one of Turkish nationalism.   In regions outside of the heavy Kurdish areas, Erdoğan ran 2%-3% ahead of the 2017 Yes vote, even in the coastal areas areas where CHP is strong.  In areas where Kurdish population is significant Erdoğan ran 4%-8% behind the 2017 Yes vote which means some HDP/Kurdish voters voted Yes in 2017 but did not vote Erdoğan.  If Erdoğan did not run 2%-3% ahead of the 2017 Yes vote in non-Kurdish areas he most likely would have failed to cross 50%.

[jaichind]

Turkey: CHP’s election data matches Anadolu Agency’s

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/turkey-chp-s-election-data-matches-anadolu-agency-s/1189373

This is AA saying this of course.  Still it seems to me that the data implied there was no mass vote count manipulation.  The vote share in different provinces seems highly correlated to previous election results.

Also in Kurdish areas Erdoğan's vote share ran 4%-8% behind the 2017 Yes vote.  If there were logical areas to do ballot stuffing this would be it since after the fact Erdoğan can correctly say "see, there was not cheating, I merely got the same votes that voted Yes on the 2017 referendum."  But instead Erdoğan ran behind the 2017 Yes vote here and won anyway.

[Velasco]

So this has nothing to do about holding leaders to a universal standard of moral behavior, and everything to do with Schmittian friend/enemy distinctions. Thanks for spelling that out, but if it's truly just a matter of "us versus them" then please spare us the moral outrage.

I'm not in the business of "moral outrage". We brought this disaster on ourselves. I don't blame unintegrated Turkish voters for voting for AK. Their behavior is indefensible but the consequence of our own failure: I blame ourselves for taking them in and granting them European citizenship. They are being hypocritical for voting for Erdogan and living in our free countries, but we are facilitating this hypocrisy by making it more attractive for them to live here than there.

 

It's very hypocritical blaming "unintegrated Turks" for voting AKP, while hailing the indefensible behaviour of some European counterparts. Yes, indeed, we must blame ourselves but not for the reasons you say. We must blame ourselves because we are losing the moral values attached to our condition of civilized European citizens. Those values that we used to take for granted. Democracy is a very fragile flower.

[Lord Halifax]

Turkey: CHP’s election data matches Anadolu Agency’s

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/turkey-chp-s-election-data-matches-anadolu-agency-s/1189373

This is AA saying this of course.  Still it seems to me that the data implied there was no mass vote count manipulation.  The vote share in different provinces seems highly correlated to previous election results.

Also in Kurdish areas Erdoğan's vote share ran 4%-8% behind the 2017 Yes vote.  If there were logical areas to do ballot stuffing this would be it since after the fact Erdoğan can correctly say "see, there was not cheating, I merely got the same votes that voted Yes on the 2017 referendum."  But instead Erdoğan ran behind the 2017 Yes vote here and won anyway.

That doesn't rule out rigging as Erdoğan was likely to lose a lot of Kurdish support and various episodes indicate rigging did take place. They likely wanted to make the result look credible. If they had gone for the referendum result it would have looked more suspicious, better to aim for something a bit lower.

[jaichind]

Erdogan puts his son-in-law in charge of a new combined ministry of treasury and finance which will most likely begin an era of fiscal activism.   I am sure his new pick for central bank governor will promote loose monetary policy.  Most likely foreign investments will dry up and Erdogan  will now have to fund economic growth with mostly domestic capital.  Most likely inflation will surge in the coming years.

[BBD]

When the economy crashes, it's all on him. That's one of the few positives of the AKP-MHP alliance holding the majority - he has no way to shift the blame to the opposition. He will be done for, once and for all.

[Zaybay]

When the economy crashes, it's all on him. That's one of the few positives of the AKP-MHP alliance holding the majority - he has no way to shift the blame to the opposition. He will be done for, once and for all.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How much noticed were the Turkish elections in the US?
Are the Americans aware how many Turk there are living in Germany and that there are heavy integration and democracy problems among them?

[Donerail]

How much noticed were the Turkish elections in the US?
Are the Americans aware how many Turk there are living in Germany and that there are heavy integration and democracy problems among them?

Not at all, to both questions. If Americans are aware of Germany's Turkish population, it is only through right-wing media, though they seem to mostly focus on Sweden for whatever reason
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/833681539997253636

And the election probably got one short news article relegated to the inside pages.

[jaichind]

The TRY crisis hitting meltdown point which is made worse by US-Turkey standoff.    Again shows the wisdom of  Erdoğan  calling the election early and getting it out of the way.  Of course the US-Turkey standoff is most likely made worse by a  Erdoğan  strategy of shifting the blame of economic woes to come on US sanctions when it fact it is a result of policies of his own making.  Again well played by  Erdoğan.

[jaichind]

It seems there is going to be a very significant economic downturn in Turkey soon.   That does not seem avoidable.