Turkish snap election, June 2018

[palandio]

CHP nominates presidential candidate Muharrem İnce, parlamentarian from Yalova.

[palandio]

Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.

Unsurprising - she's barely received any attention from the mainstream news networks. Erdogan probably believes that she would be a more threatening challenger in the runoff. I just hope that both HDP and Iyi stay above the 10% threshold.

Aren't İYİ and the Felicity Party in an alliance with the CHP, so that they would benefit from the new law as well, in the same way the MHP would?

In any case case İnce seems to be a strong candidate who can attract many voters, mainly from İYİ of course.

[palandio]

Yes, HDP is at risk. MHP, İYİ and SP are at risk, too, because they will find it difficult to reach the d'Hondt quota in many electoral districts.

I think that the DP isn't running with their own lists, but has candidates on the İYİ lists. This makes sense because as far as I understand (I'm really not sure), the different lists in one alliance are still treated separately when the seats in each electoral district are distributed according to the d'Hondt method. Therefore the same number of votes going to one list is often better than the same number of votes going to several lists running as one alliance. Considering this running with three lists (CHP, İYİ[incl. DP], SP) against two lists (AKP, MHP) already puts you in a disadvantage, but the idea is probably that an SP that is given prominent presence could draw discontent Islamist voters from AKP who would otherwise not vote CHP or İYİ.

[palandio]

[...]
It seems SP's alliance with CHP-IYI did not help since at 1.4% they were not able to qualify in any seats anywhere, even in Istanbul.  So we can view 1.4% of the 33.3% of CHP-IYI-SP as wasted.
[...]

Looking at the preliminary seat distributions in each province they only make sense when applying d'Hondt to the alliances and not to the single parties. Therefore the 1.4% of SP still count for CHP and IYI.

I'm surprised about this myself because before the election I already wondered about this, but wasn't able to retrieve any confirmation and therefore assumed that d'Hondt would not be applied to the alliances as a whole.