Turkish snap election, June 2018

[Former President tack50]

Any chance, even if it's a remote one, that Erdogan and AKP lose their majority?

They apparently lost it in June 2015 (regained it in November though) and Erdogan himself only got 52% of the vote in 2014 so I guess it's not that far fetched?

[Former President tack50]

I assume AKP will run in an alliance with MHP.  If so as long as İYİ  cannot run I cannot see how AKP-MHP does not get a majority.  Both CHP and HDP have their caps in terms of support.

Has MHP become an Erdogan/AKP puppet by now? If so then yeah, Turkey is ed (though I guess maybe they can still miss a 2/3 supermajority?)

If not, I guess maybe there's a slim chance if it becomes "everyone against Erdogan".

[Former President tack50]

What's worrying is that Erdogan is clearly ahead even in Istanbul and Ankara at this point. And there's also 25% counted already.

He's going to be ahead in most places, because the opposition vote is split in the first round. What matters if he's going to get over 50% of the vote.

Still worrying though, Erdogan is at 57.9% in Ankara and at 54% in Istanbul. He probably has to go below 50% in both to go to a 2nd round, particularly Istanbul

[Former President tack50]

Now that I think about it, if AKP-MHP does get a majority, could the opposition at least deprove them of a supermajority?

How much do you need to change the Turkish constitution?

[Former President tack50]

Now that I think about it, if AKP-MHP does get a majority, could the opposition at least deprove them of a supermajority?

How much do you need to change the Turkish constitution?

Either referendum or 2/3 in parliament

Wait, so Erdogan could change the constitution just with 50%+1 and a referendum? (That he would probably win). That sucks

[Former President tack50]

My guess is that the alliances are tallied up and the seats allocated to each alliance through D'Hondt. Then inside each alliance the seats corresponding to each alliance are allocated again through D'Hondt according to the proportion of votes each party got inside the alliance.

So for example, in Istanbul's 1st district:

AKP+MHP: 49.6% (17)
CHP+IYI+SP: 38.8 (14)
HDP (4)

Then inside Erdogan's coalition:

AKP: 41.4% (15)
MHP: 8,2% (2)

And inside the CHP coalition:

CHP: 29% (11)
IYI: 8,2% (3)
SP: 1,6% (0)

So votes for SP aren't wasted, but instead give more seats if necessary to that alliance.

It seems to me that it would benefit alliances (so HDP loses as you say) and inside each alliance benefits large parties.

IMO it's a very elegant system. Though this is only a guess.