This is the big one. We have got plenty of polls in the past where Trump is down big in Texas, in fact we can probably expect this is normal. However, the gap between voteing behavior and approval tends to stem from the fact that Hispanics heavily dissaprove of Trump but undervote in TX because of a variety of historical and geographic factors. Therefore, the Likely voter base that could have shown up in Noverber can easily approve of Trump/match the national median of dissaproval even as the state is way in the negatives because of the undervote. However, it looks like that voting base is still anti-Trump, which means Hispanics may turn out larger then previously. This is key to Texas potentially being a race.
