So yea we all of have seen the wealthy towns that swung to Hillary but.....
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  So yea we all of have seen the wealthy towns that swung to Hillary but.....
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Author Topic: So yea we all of have seen the wealthy towns that swung to Hillary but.....  (Read 5024 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2018, 08:42:42 PM »

Keep in mind that "wealthiest counties" often means highest median HH income, which often means homogeneous prosperous outer suburbs or exurbs almost completely made up of SFHs with 2 earners, often with a nouveau riche bent.  Includes a lot of middle management types and so on.  It's generally not where the real "elites" live.  They tend to live in more "inner" areas where you'll find more apartments, seniors and so on.

For instance, Loudoun County may have a higher median HH income than Montgomery or Fairfax counties, but you'll find more wealth in Montgomery and Fairfax (and NW DC).  These are where you'll find the elite professionals, Ivy League grads and so on.

Similarly, Suffolk, Putnam and Monmouth come out "ahead" of Westchester and Fairfield, but they're obviously less "elite."

This.  The county level can be deceiving as the "wealthiest" counties tend to be uniformly 2 earner couples at 2-4X the median household income.  While they're clearly better off than average, they don't run the show.  They tend to just be higher paid employees, not business owners or professional investors.  It would be a big mistake to think of them as the country's cultural elite, which is a mistake half this site seems to make.

I think the likeliest candidate for an elite area that swung hard to Trump would be something like a giant ranch that brings in $5-10M in an average year, is physically big enough to have it's own precinct, and a majority of the voters are in the landowning family. 
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #26 on: March 20, 2018, 07:29:04 PM »

The "high income, medium education" counties that swung to Trump:  Suffolk NY, Gloucester, NJ, Calvert MD etc.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/education-not-income-predicted-who-would-vote-for-trump/
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #27 on: March 21, 2018, 02:22:31 AM »

Here are some wealthy cities in California that swung towards Trump:

Oakley (Contra Costa County)
MHI: $78,102 (This may not be considered wealthy in Contra Costa County, however…)
2012: Obama 60.44-36.80 = D+ 23.64
2016: Clinton 56.34-37.25 = D+ 19.09
Swing: R+ 4.55 

Canyon Lake (Riverside County)
MHI: $80,145
2012: Romney 72.88-25.32 = R+ 47.56
2016: Trump 74.76-21.68 = R+ 53.08
Swing: R+ 5.52

Norco (Riverside County)
MHI: $84,812
2012: Romney 66.79-31.32 = R+ 35.47
2016: Trump 65.72-29.33 = R+ 36.39
Swing: R+ 0.92
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #28 on: March 21, 2018, 09:29:20 AM »

Keep in mind that "wealthiest counties" often means highest median HH income, which often means homogeneous prosperous outer suburbs or exurbs almost completely made up of SFHs with 2 earners, often with a nouveau riche bent.  Includes a lot of middle management types and so on.  It's generally not where the real "elites" live.  They tend to live in more "inner" areas where you'll find more apartments, seniors and so on.

For instance, Loudoun County may have a higher median HH income than Montgomery or Fairfax counties, but you'll find more wealth in Montgomery and Fairfax (and NW DC).  These are where you'll find the elite professionals, Ivy League grads and so on.

Similarly, Suffolk, Putnam and Monmouth come out "ahead" of Westchester and Fairfield, but they're obviously less "elite."

The truly elite areas also probably trended significantly towards Hillary in 2016 (especially in the South and Midwest) but definitely already had a higher Democratic floor prior to 2016.  The nominal swing in those areas was probably bigger in 2016, but the swing in the more monolithic, nouveau riche areas was bigger in real terms.   
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AN63093
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« Reply #29 on: May 07, 2019, 10:22:04 AM »


So unfortunately AN63093 hasn't posted since 11/21/17 on Atlas, who helped provide some perspectives and analysis on what is a generally considered a minor footnote to the "Conventional Wisdom" regarding the 2016 Presidential Election.


Forgive the ancient thread bump- I'm back.  Circumstances were such that I didn't have time to post much through 2018 so I went back to lurking, but hopefully I'll have some more time to post now- particularly on issues of demographic trends, which is my favorite topic on this forum and why I started coming here in the first place.

If I have some time I may take this back up again, mainly to satisfy my own curiosity, but it appears the current winner of wealthiest location to swing R are areas in Stafford County, VA (between Quantico and Fredericksburg along I-95, DC exurbs), with median household incomes in the $120k range and swings of about R +1 to +6.  Some of these areas still, nonetheless, trended D.

Second place, at least so far, would appear to be some interior areas of Long Island, with incomes in the low 100s.

As I discussed on the last page, I do have a theory about the demographics of these areas, but that would tend to only be true for large metros in the Mid-Atlantic... when it comes to some of the western counties you posted NOVA G, I'm not sure the same thing is going on.  Especially with the pacific NW areas (this is my least knowledgeable area of the country, honestly).

King/Skill-Chance's point is also well taken.. yes, obviously none of these areas would be considered the "wealthy elite" of the country.  For example, in Stafford VA, you may have a single family household with two higher level GS federal employees doing the long commute into DC.. their combined income at the DC locality area could easily be over 200k/yr- well off, and certainly very comfortable by the American average.  But no one would be confusing them for Mitt Romney either.

By the way- Skill and Chance may be right about what the likeliest candidate for a truly "elite" area to swing R would be... I would suggest that perhaps this candidate would be somewhere in the plains states.  I wouldn't know where to start looking though.. could be Oklahoma, one of the Dakotas maybe?  Texas?  We're talking about a needle in a haystack here, and it'd be at the precinct level that we'd have to look.
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