Ted Cruz - Biggest Loser of 2016

[Fuzzy Bear]

In thinking of Ted Cruz, it dawned on me that no one, not even Jeb!, lost the amount of star power that Ted Cruz lost in 2016.  Maybe it's just my perception, but Cruz seemed to go from the predominant political face of "Movement Conservatives" and "Religious Conservatives", as well as the intellectual leader of those folks on the political front, to a mere backbencher from Texas who's facing a likely re-election that's not quite in the bag. 

How'd that happen?  That didn't happen when Bob Taft lost to Eisenhower in 1952 (although Taft died soon afterward).  That didn't happen to Goldwater.  That didn't happen to Bob Dole or Howard Baker in 1980.  That didn't happen to Al Gore or Dick Gephardt in 1988 or to Bob Dole in 1988.  But it sure happened to Cruz, did it not?

Most of the time, I think the worst thing a pol can do is not support his party's national ticket.  Even if all you say in public is "I'm going to vote for the national ticket.", qualifying that with a statement that you won't campaign for the ticket, that'll get you by.  But Ted Cruz's case was different.  Not only did Trump go Full Bore Donnie on Cruz (the "Lyin' Ted moniker can still be heard), he went out and suggested that the man's father was linked to the Kennedy Assassination!  Such a thing would normally allow someone a pass on this issue.  Cruz speaking at the RNC telling folks to "vote their consciences" was certainly an ambushed non-endorsement of Trump from the podium.  Yet, in the end, Cruz endorsed Trump and even campaigned a bit for him, before fading out.

I'm convinced that Ted Cruz's loss of stature is due to becoming the ultimate cuck and campaigning for a man who implicated his father in the Kennedy Assassination.  Would you campaign for someone who did that to YOUR Dad or YOUR Mom?  I wouldn't, and you wouldn't, either, but Ted Cruz did, and that has always been a head-scratcher for me.

Am I right in this assessment?  DIscuss.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Not really, people need to remember where Cruz polled back in early 2015, he polled in the bottom rung, the fact that he was able to rise to second place is a testament to his ability. The biggest losers were the establishment candidates Jeb/Rubio/Walker, this category under-performed expectations, Cruz and his Conservative wing over-performed.  By the way, Kasich and his moderate wing, also over-performed.

At the beginning of the 2015 cycle, I viewed Kasich as the most electable Republican, moreso than Jeb or Rubio, and there was polling data to back that up, but no one seemed to see this. 

Kasich really turned out to be a bust.  He was the runner-up only because he didn't drop out.  Marco Rubio got more delegates than Kasich.

[Fuzzy Bear]

One problem Cruz will have in 2024 is that he will have to run AND run for his Senate seat at the same time.  Cruz may tire of the Senate; he's not popular with his peers and his eyes are set on bigger things.

Beto almost beat Cruz, and while Beto had a lot of money, some of this is due to the fact that lots of folks don't like Ted Cruz as a person.  That includes a chunk of folks who vote for him because they agree with him for the most part.

[Fuzzy Bear]

One problem Cruz will have in 2024 is that he will have to run AND run for his Senate seat at the same time.  Cruz may tire of the Senate; he's not popular with his peers and his eyes are set on bigger things.

Beto almost beat Cruz, and while Beto had a lot of money, some of this is due to the fact that lots of folks don't like Ted Cruz as a person.  That includes a chunk of folks who vote for him because they agree with him for the most part.

Cruz will probably only run for President and he is likely to win the nomination because he did historically well in 2016. We have to remember McCain got crushed in 2000 and 8 years later won the nomination. Cruz didn't even do that bad. He was the most competitive runner up since Reagan in 1976 and he got more votes than Kasich and Rubio combined. At the beginning he had virtually no support but he was able to build from the ground up to what he eventually got at the end which was around 8 million votes and almost as many votes as Romney got in 2012. This time in 2024 Cruz is going in with all the name recognition and as the runner up in 2016 and he'll probably start out as the top three in polling in Iowa and South Carolina and he'll likely end up winning one of those two states. In terms of Cruz almost losing to O'Rourke, O'Rouker was flooding with Hollywood money and had twice as much money as Cruz. Studies have shown that 91 percent of the time the candidate with the most money ends up winning and let's not forget which side the media was on. Point is Cruz is highly underestimated on this website.

His star seems to be dimming.  He's not a leader in the Senate; he's an outsider whom McConnell can't stand, yet the way the 2016 campaign unfolded, with Cruz actually being the ESTABLISHMENT candidate at the very end vs. Trump diminished his "outsider" star.  The 2016 campaign didn't go well for Cruz; he would have been better off had he folded early.  Going on to the bitter end reinforced the image of Cruz underperforming and falling short.  Cruz was a brash newcomer and a coming star going into 2016; now, he's almost a backbencher, overshadowed by Trump and McConnell who both hate him and are hated by him.

[Fuzzy Bear]

One problem Cruz will have in 2024 is that he will have to run AND run for his Senate seat at the same time.  Cruz may tire of the Senate; he's not popular with his peers and his eyes are set on bigger things.

Beto almost beat Cruz, and while Beto had a lot of money, some of this is due to the fact that lots of folks don't like Ted Cruz as a person.  That includes a chunk of folks who vote for him because they agree with him for the most part.

Cruz will probably only run for President and he is likely to win the nomination because he did historically well in 2016. We have to remember McCain got crushed in 2000 and 8 years later won the nomination. Cruz didn't even do that bad. He was the most competitive runner up since Reagan in 1976 and he got more votes than Kasich and Rubio combined. At the beginning he had virtually no support but he was able to build from the ground up to what he eventually got at the end which was around 8 million votes and almost as many votes as Romney got in 2012. This time in 2024 Cruz is going in with all the name recognition and as the runner up in 2016 and he'll probably start out as the top three in polling in Iowa and South Carolina and he'll likely end up winning one of those two states. In terms of Cruz almost losing to O'Rourke, O'Rouker was flooding with Hollywood money and had twice as much money as Cruz. Studies have shown that 91 percent of the time the candidate with the most money ends up winning and let's not forget which side the media was on. Point is Cruz is highly underestimated on this website.

His star seems to be dimming.  He's not a leader in the Senate; he's an outsider whom McConnell can't stand, yet the way the 2016 campaign unfolded, with Cruz actually being the ESTABLISHMENT candidate at the very end vs. Trump diminished his "outsider" star.  The 2016 campaign didn't go well for Cruz; he would have been better off had he folded early.  Going on to the bitter end reinforced the image of Cruz underperforming and falling short.  Cruz was a brash newcomer and a coming star going into 2016; now, he's almost a backbencher, overshadowed by Trump and McConnell who both hate him and are hated by him.

Cruz was not the establishment candidate. In fact the establishment was behind the scenes planning on snubbing both Trump and Cruz at the convention by giving the nomination to a Paul Ryan or a Mitt Romney. The fact that McConnell is against Cruz actually helped him in the primaries because the fact is conservatives and republicans can't stand McConnell or the establishment. Hence why Rubio and Kasich won only 1 state in the primaries. The truth is the biggest loser was probably Rubio because he was supposed to sweep the map and many considered him to be the GOP's barack obama. Instead he won one state that wasn't even his own. There also a good chance Rubio will lose his re election in 2022.

Cruz became the "Establishment Candidate" when the GOP Establishment ran out of viable candidates to mount an opposition to Trump.  He was the candidate who had the best chance of blocking Trump at the convention, when it became clear that the only way to stop Trump was to tie up the convention to force a second ballot.  I believe that the GOP Establishment, along with most "Movement Conservatives" very much wanted to do this, but they lost their nerve.  Trump was not going to go gently into that good night; if he was going to be blocked at the convention, Trump would ensure that it was done in full view of the voters on TV and in the media.  By this time, the hour was late, the odds not great, and the bulk of the GOP were resigned to making the best of a Clinton victory. 

Cruz did realize that while the "Establishment" turned to him after Jeb! and Rubio fizzled and Kasich seemed to be a non-starter that was unacceptable to Movement Conservatives, he was not really their choice and he knew that, on a second ballot, they may have used the rules to nominate Jeb! or Rubio or some other Establishment candidate.  Cruz isn't an idiot and he knew what time it was, politically.  He wasn't going to fight Trump to the bitter end because he knew that Trump was in it to win it (unlike so many others who thought the campaign was a publicity stunt.  Cruz wasn't a Trump Denier.  I suppose few are today.