Why do NJ whites lean Republican?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I realize Democrats do badly with whites in Presidential races almost everywhere, but it seems they never win the NJ white vote. Both Menendez in 2006 and even longtime Senator Lautenberg in 2008 lost the white vote in Democratic waves. Despite Christie's historic unpopularity, Guadagno won the white vote pretty handily.

Is it still taxes and crime like in the 80s or are NJ whites more socially conservative than I assumed?

[TDAS04]

Remove NYC from New York, and I'm guessing New York's whites would vote similar to New Jersey whites.  NJ could be like NY minus NYC (though more suburban and less rural).

Also, parts of South Jersey might have a few Southern-ish tendencies, maybe somewhat like lower portions of of Delaware.  (Not that I think either is a Southern state overall.)

[HAnnA MArin County]

I think New Jersey has its fair share of Italian Americans and those folks tend to lean right (see Staten Island), but I'm not a Jersey expert so I'll yield the floor to any of our Garden State avatars on my theory.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because they're white. Okay for a more detailed explanation, New Jersey is one of the most diverse states in the nation yet it is also somewhat segregated. The Republican bastions of the northwest and Jersey shore are much whiter than the rest of the state. Though why that is might not be so universal. The more wealthy, mostly white suburbs are Republican friendly due to fiscal reasons in particular, especially given the state's high taxes. However, in contrast, there do exist those upper-class suburbs that are less white such as Montclair or Ridgewood which favor Democrats (Montclair in particular is among the most Democratic municipalities in the state). Education may also be part of those differences as the suburbs tend to be very well-educated which may explain the suburban shift away from Drumpf that was prevalent here as well especially in Somerset County which has abandoned its former consistently GOP roots in most elections in the 2010's. As for the more rural parts of the state, north and south, like Sussex County, well they're more rural and still very white. So that one is easier enough to explain. It's the same situation as it is in other states. Although, ironically, for a state nicknamed "The Garden State" it is probably one of the least rural states overall. The US census even designates all 21 counties as "urban" since their populations are all over 50,000 people.

Also, perhaps more controversially from a historical perspective, the New Jersey suburbs in general, like many other states' suburbs, are the product of white flight as white former urban dwellers in places such as Camden, Paterson, and Newark; left for the suburbs. If I recall, in the aftermath of the Martin Luther King assassination, Newark and Camden were the settings of race riots in response which startled those cities' white denizens. This was part of what caused a chain of events that caused those cities' fall into urban decay and the large decrease in population we still, relatively, see today.

 For South Jersey, the shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May, in particular; I am not a native to that part of the state, I've visited many times, but I can't exactly say why they tend to be so conservative. I guess it is due to a combination of having less diversity and an older population. As a contrast here, Atlantic County is the only shore county that votes Democratic somewhat consistently but is home to the more diverse Atlantic City, which pretty much accounts for that exception. But some parts of the south still aren't as wealthy as the consistently Republican Morris or Hunterdon counties for example, so I'm not certain if fiscal reasons are the main motivator or not. They can also be somewhat swingy too under the right circumstances though, McGreevey won all of south Jersey except Cape May; and Gore won Monmouth county. Especially swingy is Salem County which has actually started to vote more consistently GOP. Additionally, the usually Democratic Gloucester surprisingly (albeit narrowly) voted for Drumpf. So South Jersey is a bit more complicated to me.

[King of Kensington]

Lots of Italians, a lot of McMansion type housing by NE standards and fewer professional class "establishment liberals" than say, Westchester or Connecticut. 

[NOVA Green]

Perhaps the bigger question, is why do "Whites" even outside of the former States of the Confederacy, tend to lean Republican?

I seem to recall a map someone made after the '08 Presidential Election showing that Obama only won the "White Vote" in maybe 12 States....

Another from '16 indicated that HRC won "Whites" in maybe half a dozen States....

Don't want to hijack the Joisey thread.... so will say that the major reason that New Jersey has become heavily Democratic in recent years, is because of the massive swings among White Voters in NE Jersey (Think Bergen County as the classic example) as well as various other Suburban/Exurban parts of Metro NYC....

Progressive Pessimist seems to have a pretty decent handle on NJ Politics, so I'll defer to his angles on this....

Although I was born in Joisey (Hunterdon County) where both my parents are well acquainted, they were definitely Liberals and Dovish in the late '60s at the time of 'Nam, Civil Rights Movements, and riots in Newark, etc....

I do believe that the politics of race does have a disproportionate historical impact here, perhaps slightly more so than many other parts of the Northeast, since my Mother grew up in a smaller factory Town in Pennsylvania not too far from the New Jersey border, and part of the reason she moved out West in the Mid '70s had to do with disillusionment with the lack of changed attitudes towards racial progress once the Civil Rights movement shifted North....

[TML]

Older & less educated white voters tend to vote Republican, while younger and more educated whites may be more likely to vote Democratic, albeit by narrower margins. Exit polls in 2016 and 2017 indicated that Democrats won white voters with higher education in both elections, while Republicans won white voters without higher education.

Census data indicates that just under 40% of NJ residents have college degrees, so it shouldn't be surprising that NJ whites voted Republican overall in both 2016 (presidential) and 2017 (gubernatorial).