Last time a Democrat won the white vote in a state/county while still losing it?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

When was the last time that a Democratic candidate for statewide office won the white vote in a county or state but still lost the overall vote?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

When was the last time that a Democratic candidate for statewide office won the white vote in a county or state but still lost the overall vote?

My guess would be Miami-Dade County in the 2004 Florida Senate race.

When do you think the last time that this happened in a Presidential election was?

[GMantis]

I think it would be Maryland in 1908 which the Republicans won by barely 0.25%, at a time when many blacks voted in Maryland and did so for the Republicans.

Later possibilities, which are less likely, would be Indiana in 1916 and New York in 1928.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

When was the last time that a Democratic candidate for statewide office won the white vote in a county or state but still lost the overall vote?

My guess would be Miami-Dade County in the 2004 Florida Senate race.

When do you think the last time that this happened in a Presidential election was?

In Miami-Dade in the 1980s, the Cuban precincts were going for the Republicans by 6:1 margins, so maybe it happened then. Not sure though.

Otherwise, I think you'd have to go back to 1932 to have any certainty.

It probably happened somewhere in 1956.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

When was the last time that a Democratic candidate for statewide office won the white vote in a county or state but still lost the overall vote?

My guess would be Miami-Dade County in the 2004 Florida Senate race.

When do you think the last time that this happened in a Presidential election was?

In Miami-Dade in the 1980s, the Cuban precincts were going for the Republicans by 6:1 margins, so maybe it happened then. Not sure though.

Otherwise, I think you'd have to go back to 1932 to have any certainty.

Yeah, Miami-Dade was going for Republicans by large margins in the 80's so I doubt that Carter, Mondale, or Dukakis won whites there.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think it would be Maryland in 1908 which the Republicans won by barely 0.25%, at a time when many blacks voted in Maryland and did so for the Republicans.

Later possibilities, which are less likely, would be Indiana in 1916 and New York in 1928.

It almost certainly happened somewhere in 1932 since Hoover still won the black vote pretty overwhelmingly.

[GMantis]

I think it would be Maryland in 1908 which the Republicans won by barely 0.25%, at a time when many blacks voted in Maryland and did so for the Republicans.

Later possibilities, which are less likely, would be Indiana in 1916 and New York in 1928.

It almost certainly happened somewhere in 1932 since Hoover still won the black vote pretty overwhelmingly.

It could have happened in only two states: Connecticut and Delaware. Both are unlikely, the former because they weren't that many blacks and the later because black turnout was likely much lower than the white one.

When was the last time that a Democratic candidate for statewide office won the white vote in a county or state but still lost the overall vote?

My guess would be Miami-Dade County in the 2004 Florida Senate race.

When do you think the last time that this happened in a Presidential election was?

In Miami-Dade in the 1980s, the Cuban precincts were going for the Republicans by 6:1 margins, so maybe it happened then. Not sure though.

Otherwise, I think you'd have to go back to 1932 to have any certainty.

It probably happened somewhere in 1956.

By 1956 the great majority of blacks were voting for the Democrats.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think it would be Maryland in 1908 which the Republicans won by barely 0.25%, at a time when many blacks voted in Maryland and did so for the Republicans.

Later possibilities, which are less likely, would be Indiana in 1916 and New York in 1928.

It almost certainly happened somewhere in 1932 since Hoover still won the black vote pretty overwhelmingly.

It could have happened in only two states: Connecticut and Delaware. Both are unlikely, the former because they weren't that many blacks and the later because black turnout was likely much lower than the white one.

When was the last time that a Democratic candidate for statewide office won the white vote in a county or state but still lost the overall vote?

My guess would be Miami-Dade County in the 2004 Florida Senate race.

When do you think the last time that this happened in a Presidential election was?

In Miami-Dade in the 1980s, the Cuban precincts were going for the Republicans by 6:1 margins, so maybe it happened then. Not sure though.

Otherwise, I think you'd have to go back to 1932 to have any certainty.

It probably happened somewhere in 1956.

By 1956 the great majority of blacks were voting for the Democrats.

With regards to 1932, I imagine that on the county level there must have been at least a small number of counties where FDR won the white vote but Hoover still won due to blacks. I imagine these would all be in the Northeast or maybe out west.

[GMantis]

I think it would be Maryland in 1908 which the Republicans won by barely 0.25%, at a time when many blacks voted in Maryland and did so for the Republicans.

Later possibilities, which are less likely, would be Indiana in 1916 and New York in 1928.

It almost certainly happened somewhere in 1932 since Hoover still won the black vote pretty overwhelmingly.

It could have happened in only two states: Connecticut and Delaware. Both are unlikely, the former because they weren't that many blacks and the later because black turnout was likely much lower than the white one.

When was the last time that a Democratic candidate for statewide office won the white vote in a county or state but still lost the overall vote?

My guess would be Miami-Dade County in the 2004 Florida Senate race.

When do you think the last time that this happened in a Presidential election was?

In Miami-Dade in the 1980s, the Cuban precincts were going for the Republicans by 6:1 margins, so maybe it happened then. Not sure though.

Otherwise, I think you'd have to go back to 1932 to have any certainty.

It probably happened somewhere in 1956.

By 1956 the great majority of blacks were voting for the Democrats.

With regards to 1932, I imagine that on the county level there must have been at least a small number of counties where FDR won the white vote but Hoover still won due to blacks. I imagine these would all be in the Northeast or maybe out west.

Almost certainly there are such counties. I've checked only the two northern states with the highest black population (New Jersey and Ohio) and there are two very likely counties. Atlantic county, NJ which had 15% black population was won by Hoover by 9% and Greene, OH which had 9% black population and was won by Hoover by 4%.

[Adam Griffin]

Tennessee in 1956 is a possible statewide contender, but I'm at minimum skeptical.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, there's a small sampling's worth of evidence throughout pockets of the Deep South that some black communities were still supporting Republicans over Democrats, but this was almost exclusively in some of the blackest counties in the country where sheer numbers allowed for a non-negligible number of black voters to break into the political process pre-VRA. During the 1956 election, the best example is Alabama's Black Belt (specifically Macon County; the electorate was already majority-black there before the 1964 election; so much so that the black civic orgs in the county were effectively threatening white Democrats in 1964 by saying in effect "either you support our candidates now, or we're about to nuke your representation entirely in the coming years"). 

I'm also not sure if Tennessee would be Southern enough for these examples to apply in the same sense, as cultural differences from region to region could have a huge impact.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Tennessee in 1956 is a possible statewide contender, but I'm at minimum skeptical.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, there's a small sampling's worth of evidence throughout pockets of the Deep South that some black communities were still supporting Republicans over Democrats, but this was almost exclusively in some of the blackest counties in the country where sheer numbers allowed for a non-negligible number of black voters to break into the political process pre-VRA. During the 1956 election, the best example is Alabama's Black Belt (specifically Macon County; the electorate was already majority-black there before the 1964 election; so much so that the black civic orgs in the county were effectively threatening white Democrats in 1964 by saying in effect "either you support our candidates now, or we're about to nuke your representation entirely in the coming years"). 

I'm also not sure if Tennessee would be Southern enough for these examples to apply in the same sense, as cultural differences from region to region could have a huge impact.

Was voter suppression really so much less of a thing in Tennessee in 1956 than it was in other Southern States?

[darklordoftech]

Tennessee in 1956 is a possible statewide contender, but I'm at minimum skeptical.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, there's a small sampling's worth of evidence throughout pockets of the Deep South that some black communities were still supporting Republicans over Democrats, but this was almost exclusively in some of the blackest counties in the country where sheer numbers allowed for a non-negligible number of black voters to break into the political process pre-VRA. During the 1956 election, the best example is Alabama's Black Belt (specifically Macon County; the electorate was already majority-black there before the 1964 election; so much so that the black civic orgs in the county were effectively threatening white Democrats in 1964 by saying in effect "either you support our candidates now, or we're about to nuke your representation entirely in the coming years"). 

I'm also not sure if Tennessee would be Southern enough for these examples to apply in the same sense, as cultural differences from region to region could have a huge impact.

Was voter suppression really so much less of a thing in Tennessee in 1956 than it was in other Southern States?

Voter suppression varied from state to state. It was far worse in South Carolina and Mississipi than it was in Alabama.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Tennessee in 1956 is a possible statewide contender, but I'm at minimum skeptical.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, there's a small sampling's worth of evidence throughout pockets of the Deep South that some black communities were still supporting Republicans over Democrats, but this was almost exclusively in some of the blackest counties in the country where sheer numbers allowed for a non-negligible number of black voters to break into the political process pre-VRA. During the 1956 election, the best example is Alabama's Black Belt (specifically Macon County; the electorate was already majority-black there before the 1964 election; so much so that the black civic orgs in the county were effectively threatening white Democrats in 1964 by saying in effect "either you support our candidates now, or we're about to nuke your representation entirely in the coming years"). 

I'm also not sure if Tennessee would be Southern enough for these examples to apply in the same sense, as cultural differences from region to region could have a huge impact.

Was voter suppression really so much less of a thing in Tennessee in 1956 than it was in other Southern States?

Voter suppression varied from state to state. It was far worse in South Carolina and Mississipi than it was in Alabama.

So were there enough black voters in TN in '56 for Eisenhower to have narrowly won it while losing the white vote?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does FL-SEN 2004 count?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Does FL-SEN 2004 count?

Absolutely, any statewide race counts whether it's Senate, Gubernatorial, Attorney General, Presidential, etc.

[RINO Tom]

Tennessee in 1956 is a possible statewide contender, but I'm at minimum skeptical.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, there's a small sampling's worth of evidence throughout pockets of the Deep South that some black communities were still supporting Republicans over Democrats, but this was almost exclusively in some of the blackest counties in the country where sheer numbers allowed for a non-negligible number of black voters to break into the political process pre-VRA. During the 1956 election, the best example is Alabama's Black Belt (specifically Macon County; the electorate was already majority-black there before the 1964 election; so much so that the black civic orgs in the county were effectively threatening white Democrats in 1964 by saying in effect "either you support our candidates now, or we're about to nuke your representation entirely in the coming years"). 

I'm also not sure if Tennessee would be Southern enough for these examples to apply in the same sense, as cultural differences from region to region could have a huge impact.

Was voter suppression really so much less of a thing in Tennessee in 1956 than it was in other Southern States?

Voter suppression varied from state to state. It was far worse in South Carolina and Mississipi than it was in Alabama.

So were there enough black voters in TN in '56 for Eisenhower to have narrowly won it while losing the white vote?

I'd guess not, plus you have the ancestrally Republican areas in East Tennessee (which were also, to my knowledge, heavily White) to provide a high floor for White support.

[Adam Griffin]

Tennessee in 1956 is a possible statewide contender, but I'm at minimum skeptical.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, there's a small sampling's worth of evidence throughout pockets of the Deep South that some black communities were still supporting Republicans over Democrats, but this was almost exclusively in some of the blackest counties in the country where sheer numbers allowed for a non-negligible number of black voters to break into the political process pre-VRA. During the 1956 election, the best example is Alabama's Black Belt (specifically Macon County; the electorate was already majority-black there before the 1964 election; so much so that the black civic orgs in the county were effectively threatening white Democrats in 1964 by saying in effect "either you support our candidates now, or we're about to nuke your representation entirely in the coming years"). 

I'm also not sure if Tennessee would be Southern enough for these examples to apply in the same sense, as cultural differences from region to region could have a huge impact.

Was voter suppression really so much less of a thing in Tennessee in 1956 than it was in other Southern States?

It would take relatively few black voters to tip the scales in a race that close. Something like:

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[Skill and Chance]

How about New Mexico in 1924?

[SingingAnalyst]

Possibly Duval County, FL in 1956, which voted 49.83% Stevenson / 50.17% Eisenhower. Given its location in northern FL, I'm guessing most of its Blacks, even if only a few voted, voted Eisenhower.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Maryland 1924?