What effect will Orman have on the KS Gov race?

[PoliticalShelter]

Whenever Kansas pops up I keep hearing about how Orman is going to act as a spoiler for the Dems. But how much effect will he actually have on the race?

[Canis]

Grab about 12-15% of the vote make it come down to the wire giving the dems a real chance

[NewYorkExpress]

Given how unpopular Brownback is, Republicans probably will defect en masse to him, especially if Colyer is the nominee, thus leading to a second place finish (and possible victory) for him.

If Kobach is the nominee, Orman probably finishes third, but he's not going to finish too far behind the Democratic nominee/Kobach.

[Pandaguineapig]

The red avatars whovthink Orman will draw from the republicans are adorable, the guy ran hard to the left in 2014. Reminds me of the type of people who thought that Crist and Pressler were going to help the democrats win senate seats

[VPH]

He definitely will draw more from Democrats by pulling votes from disaffected Republicans and right-leaning independents who could be convinced to vote Democratic. Orman's 2014 run, where he was the de facto Democrat, solidifies this.

[Theodore]

The red avatars whovthink Orman will draw from the republicans are adorable, the guy ran hard to the left in 2014. Reminds me of the type of people who thought that Crist and Pressler were going to help the democrats win senate seats

[IceSpear]

The red avatars whovthink Orman will draw from the republicans are adorable, the guy ran hard to the left in 2014. Reminds me of the type of people who thought that Crist and Pressler were going to help the democrats win senate seats

[ON Progressive]

The red avatars whovthink Orman will draw from the republicans are adorable, the guy ran hard to the left in 2014. Reminds me of the type of people who thought that Crist and Pressler were going to help the democrats win senate seats

[Skunk]

Probably will end up being a spoiler.

[Mr. Smith]

I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up being a nothing. But my gut says he plays the Eliot Cutler and allows Colyer to win.

[Young Conservative]

my gut says he plays the Eliot Cutler and allows Colyer to win.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

He definitely will draw more from Democrats by pulling votes from disaffected Republicans and right-leaning independents who could be convinced to vote Democratic. Orman's 2014 run, where he was the de facto Democrat, solidifies this.

This is correct.

[tmthforu94]

The majority of Orman's support is coming from Democrats, and considering how small their margin of error is in statewide elections, it's going to make it very difficult for the Democrat to win. I'm still waiting to see if a deal is struck because I just can't see either Kobach or Colyer losing in a 3-person race.

As I'm sure other Kansans would agree with, the race is still incredibly up in the air and I could see a multitude of scenarios playing out. If I had to predict the result right now, I'd pick something like this:
Colyer - 44%
Kelly - 36%
Orman - 19%

Two-Way Race:
Colyer - 50%
Kelly - 48%

[TheSaint250]

He's gonna win, duh.

Seriously though, I could see him even getting less than 10% of the vote depending on the Democrat, though Colyer's term before the election will certainly reveal if there will be somewhat of an exodus of Republicans, too.