Since polls will change I will give a prediction as we get closer, but thoughts on the ridings mentioned below. Note under Election predictions we already have a section for Ontario so you may want to merge this with
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250768.0 .
Popular vote:
Liberals:
PC:
NDP:
Greens:
Other/Independents:
Seats:
Liberals:
PC:
NDP:
Greens:
Other/Independents:
Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.
Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- Lib/PC battleground slight edge for PCs now but could change
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC's favoured but OLP win still possible
Kingston and the Islands- OLP favoured, NDP win possible if they gain momentum, PC only in a perfect three way split.
Peterborough- Usually goes for the winner so probably PCs, OLP and NDP only if either gains a lot of momentum.
905 Belt
Ajax- Leans PC but slight uptick and OLP could hold
Oshawa- NDP/PC battleground so too close to call at the moment.
Vaughan-Woodbridge- Notwithstanding other predictions, tends to be more swingy than most ridings and has demographics in line with Ford Nation so leans PC, but OLP hold still possible.
King-Vaughan- Likely PCs unless they screw up badly.
Brampton-East- Solid NDP
Brampton-North- PCs if strong splits, NDP or OLP if progressives coalesce behind one of them.
Mississauga-lake shore- Likely PCs, but choice of Ford who is a bad fit might save Sousa. Had Elliott been chosen, would have been solid PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- Leans PCs
GTA:
Scarborough Centre- PC/OLP battleground, but could go NDP if they get some momentum.
Scarborough Agincourt- Likely PC, OLP hold only if PCs screw up
Scarborough Southwest- Likely OLP, NDP possible if they get some momentum, PCs only if they win big and see perfect splits.
Eglinton-Lawrence- OLP/PC battleground, Ford bad fit, but PC base strong here.
Willowdale- Slight edge for PCs but still competitive.
York Centre- Likely PC (probably one of the first to fall in 416), only stays OLP if they rebound strongly and PCs mess up
Beaches-East York- Leans NDP, but could stay OLP if progressive vote unites behind them.
Davenport- Likely NDP, OLP hold only if NDP messed up badly.
Toronto-centre - Safe Liberal, only goes NDP if Liberals win 0 seats or close to.
University-Rosedale- Likely Liberal, but NDP win still possible. PCs won't win but could play kingmaker in terms of whom do they take more support from.
Etobicoke North- Normally a fairly Liberal riding, but heart of Ford Nation, so likely PC, but Ford has more chance of losing his own riding than the election. OLP could win and NDP if they surge above 30% provincewide.
Etobicoke Lakeshore- Slight edge for PCs but OLP still competitive here
Etobicoke Center- Likely PC, only stays OLP if gap closes.
York South Weston- Too close to call, slight edge NDP but still could stay OLP. PCs won't win, but will likely do better than normal so which party they gain votes from will be key.
Humber River Black Creek- OLP/NDP battleground, PCs being kingmaker as they gain a lot of votes but still stay in third but which party they gain most from will lose.
Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- Fairly easy PC pick up. Would be guaranteed with Elliott is leader as Ford is a bad fit, but still 80-90% chance they win this.
Oakville- Also likely PC pickup but choice of Ford gives OLP a slight chance at holding whereas under Elliott it would have been zero.
St Catherine’s- Likely PC, but Jim Bradley's personal popularity might save OLP. NDP only if they manage to win outright, but the better they do the more likely a PC pickup.
Brantford-Brant- Likely PC, but NDP win possible if above 30% provincewide and PCs fall below 40%. OLP is toast here and will come in third.
Guelph- If Greens win any seats this will be it. OLP win still possible, PCs if you get strong enough splits (they have a ceiling of around 30%), NDP if they win provincewide.
Waterloo- Lean NDP, but PCs if you get strong splits
London North-Centre- PC/NDP battleground primarily, OLP win possible but least likely of the three.
Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- Likely NDP pickup, PCs only if perfect splits and NDP bombs election
Sault Ste Marie- Likely PC, NDP if PCs mess up, OLP toast here.
Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed:
There are lots of others that could change hands. Actually Liberal polling numbers are bad enough just about all of theirs are somewhat vulnerable. PCs asides from Scarborough North and Sault Ste. Marie which they won in by-elections aren't likely to lose anything unless NDP surges to first place and even then only Sarnia-Lambton and Chatham-Kent-Leamington could I see flipping if that happened.
For NDP, they will face challenges from PCs in Niagara Falls, Niagara Centre (less so, but Rust belt so prime territory for Ford to overperform), London West, and Kenora-Rainy River
