Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, I'll play

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
......
Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines.......

Abuja or Lagos?

I fixed a lot of the OP's typos when I copied and pasted, but I missed that one!

[Linus Van Pelt]

Ok, I'll play

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton East- NDP
Brampton North- NDP
Mississauga-Lakeshore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- PC
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- PC
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto Centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Centre - PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines - NDP
Brantford-Brant- NDP
Guelph- Green
Waterloo- NDP
London North Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed:
Spadina-Fort York -> NDP
Don Valley North -> PC
Scarborough-Guildwood -> PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park -> PC
All of York Region -> PC
All of Mississauga -> PC
Brampton Centre -> NDP
Brampton West -> PC
Brampton South -> PC
All of Halton -> PC
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas -> NDP
Durham -> NDP
Both Barrie ridings: --> PC
Orleans -> PC
Ottawa Centre -> NDP
Northumberland-Peterborough South -> PC
Cambridge -> PC
Kitchener Centre -> NDP
Kenora-Rainy River -> PC

Unless I'm adding wrongly, this is a PC majority. Are you thinking that the popular vote will not actually be close to tied, or do you think the current distribution gets this result even with both PC's and NDP around 36-37?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, I'll play

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton East- NDP
Brampton North- NDP
Mississauga-Lakeshore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- PC
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- PC
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto Centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Centre - PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines - NDP
Brantford-Brant- NDP
Guelph- Green
Waterloo- NDP
London North Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed:
Spadina-Fort York -> NDP
Don Valley North -> PC
Scarborough-Guildwood -> PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park -> PC
All of York Region -> PC
All of Mississauga -> PC
Brampton Centre -> NDP
Brampton West -> PC
Brampton South -> PC
All of Halton -> PC
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas -> NDP
Durham -> NDP
Both Barrie ridings: --> PC
Orleans -> PC
Ottawa Centre -> NDP
Northumberland-Peterborough South -> PC
Cambridge -> PC
Kitchener Centre -> NDP
Kenora-Rainy River -> PC

Unless I'm adding wrongly, this is a PC majority. Are you thinking that the popular vote will not actually be close to tied, or do you think the current distribution gets this result even with both PC's and NDP around 36-37?

I think at this stage the PCs will win by a few points, and thus will get a majority. If the PV is tied, then I still think the PCs have a structural advantage on paper, but not necessarily.  From what I've seen in or regional polling over the last few days, the NDP isn't doing as well in the areas it needs to in order to win a majority, even if the topline suggests a tie.

[PeteB]

For the record, going into the debate, I see this spread:

NDP - 35%
PC- 34%
Liberal - 21%
Green - 4%

Seats:
NDP - 49
PC - 61
Liberal - 13
Green -1

Result : who the h..l knows

[adma]

One thing I'm wondering: why does "favourable distribution" favour the PCs in Ontario, while it favours Labour in the UK?  Or is it the built-in flaw of Ontario's projection models...

[mileslunn]

One thing I'm wondering: why does "favourable distribution" favour the PCs in Ontario, while it favours Labour in the UK?  Or is it the built-in flaw of Ontario's projection models...

Actually in UK, distribution favours the Tories now.  In the 90s it favoured Labour but that was when you had a lot more strategic voting so in areas where Liberal Democrats were the main opponent, Labour often got in the teens or single digits, whereas now they pretty much get over 25% in just about every constituency.  Also in the 90s, Scotland was largely Labour unlike now.  In addition, Tony Blair never ran up the margins in urban areas the way Corbyn did.  In 2005 there were very few constituencies Labour got over 60% whereas in 2017, there were several and some they even got over 80%.

As for Ontario, NDP tends to run up the margins in their strongholds.  In the 905 belt and other suburbs, they will get a lot of votes, but they need to rise higher before they start flipping those seats.  In rural Ontario, Liberals have more or less imploded so NDP probably over 1/3 in most rural ridings and even over 40% in many whereas PCs are probably still in the 45-50% range in most rural ridings.  That being said if NDP pulls into a 4-5 point lead, they will win so won't matter.

[ON Progressive]

One thing I'm wondering: why does "favourable distribution" favour the PCs in Ontario, while it favours Labour in the UK?  Or is it the built-in flaw of Ontario's projection models...

Actually in UK, distribution favours the Tories now.  In the 90s it favoured Labour but that was when you had a lot more strategic voting so in areas where Liberal Democrats were the main opponent, Labour often got in the teens or single digits, whereas now they pretty much get over 25% in just about every constituency.  Also in the 90s, Scotland was largely Labour unlike now.  In addition, Tony Blair never ran up the margins in urban areas the way Corbyn did.  In 2005 there were very few constituencies Labour got over 60% whereas in 2017, there were several and some they even got over 80%.

As for Ontario, NDP tends to run up the margins in their strongholds.  In the 905 belt and other suburbs, they will get a lot of votes, but they need to rise higher before they start flipping those seats.  In rural Ontario, Liberals have more or less imploded so NDP probably over 1/3 in most rural ridings and even over 40% in many whereas PCs are probably still in the 45-50% range in most rural ridings.  That being said if NDP pulls into a 4-5 point lead, they will win so won't matter.

100% agreed. The NDP have really solid strongholds which is helpful when you're in the low 20s like the NDP normally are, but it hurts you when you're tied or marginally ahead like the NDP are.

[adma]

100% agreed. The NDP have really solid strongholds which is helpful when you're in the low 20s like the NDP normally are, but it hurts you when you're tied or marginally ahead like the NDP are.

Except that in "wave elections" like the present, the gains can be more emphatic in the less-than-strongholds than in the status-quo strongholds--something which conventional projection models may have difficulty picking up.

To take an extreme case, the Mainstreet poll for St. Paul's showing the NDP nudging the Libs for 1st with a third of the vote; last time, they barely crossed the 10% threshold there with what was basically a paper candidacy.  By comparison, I can see the share remaining relatively stable or possibly even declining in "2014 overperformance" seats like Essex...

[Hatman 🍁]

What does "running up the margins" even mean for the NDP? I doubt they will be getting over 70% in many seats (if at all.. maybe Nickel Belt?), and very few over 60% margins. Again, in 'NDP strongholds' most who would potentially vote NDP already did so last time. NDP gains will be made mostly in non-NDP seats.  

[adma]

What does "running up the margins" even mean for the NDP?

I don't know; Taras Natyshak 2014 vs 2011?  Certainly wasn't Rosario Marchese in those respective years.

And besides, we've already debunked running-up-the-margins logic relative to the 2015 Alberta election (i.e. the presumption of an inflated NDP vote all wasted in Edmonton and Lethbridge, because 2012 tallies suggested the same)

[lilTommy]

What does "running up the margins" even mean for the NDP? I doubt they will be getting over 70% in many seats (if at all.. maybe Nickel Belt?), and very few over 60% margins. Again, in 'NDP strongholds' most who would potentially vote NDP already did so last time. NDP gains will be made mostly in non-NDP seats.  

I agree; I could see the NDP at +60 in say Toronto-Danforth, maybe Parkdale-High Park, Hamilton Centre, Essex and both Windsor seats, the North, basically the seats they currently hold. But I can see the NDP winning +50 in those pickups like Davenport, Toronto Centre... maybe even University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York.

[mileslunn]

Agreed the NDP will probably gain more in areas they don't hold than do, but that is sort of the problem with simulators when predicting outcomes.  They are good with normal shifts but not massive ones.  Otherwise those showing NDP winning popular vote but losing seatwise is using a uniform swing which rarely occur at least in Canada.

[PeteB]

So, after the debate, I am ready to predict this (I just used the OPs breakdown):

Popular vote: 
Liberals: 23%
PC: 34%
NDP:35%
Greens: 3%
Other/Independents:5%

Seats:
Liberals:19 seats
PC:56 seats
NDP:48 seats
Greens: 1 seat
Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- Liberal
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough- PC

905 Belt
Ajax-PC
Oshawa-NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- Liberal
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- NDP
Brampton-North- NDP
Mississauga-lake shore- Liberal
Mississauga-Streetsville- Liberal

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-PC
Scarborough Agincourt-PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- Liberal
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto-centre - Liberal
University-Rosedale- Liberal
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- Liberal
Etobicoke Center- PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Niagara region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St Catherine’s-Liberal
Brantford-Brant-NDP
Guelph-Green
Waterloo-NDP
London North-Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

[lilTommy]

Popular vote: 
Liberals: 21%
PC: 33%
NDP: 40%
Greens: 3%
Other/Independents:3%

Seats:
Liberals:12 seats
PC:50 seats
NDP:62 seats
Greens: 0 seat
Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- Liberal
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough- NDP

905 Belt
Ajax-PC
Oshawa-NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- NDP
Brampton-North- NDP
Mississauga-lake shore- Liberal
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-PC
Scarborough Agincourt-PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- Liberal
Willowdale- Liberal
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto-centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- NDP (yup, I think Ford might just lose)
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Center- PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Niagara region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St Catherine’s-NDP
Brantford-Brant-NDP
Guelph-NDP
Waterloo-NDP
London North-Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- NDP

[DC Al Fine]

Time to make my (likely terribly wrong) guess

Popular vote: 
Liberals: 21%
PC: 34%
NDP: 39%
Greens: 4%
Other/Independents:2%

Seats:
Liberals:8 seats
PC:56 seats
NDP: 60 seats
Greens: 0 seat
Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough- NDP

905 Belt
Ajax-PC
Oshawa-NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- NDP
Brampton-North- NDP
Mississauga-Lake shore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-PC
Scarborough Agincourt-PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- Liberal
Willowdale- Liberal
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto-centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Center- PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Niagara region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St Catherine’s-NDP
Brantford-Brant-NDP
Guelph- Liberal (my only bold prediction)
Waterloo-NDP
London North-Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty sound, DC. I disagree with Willowdale and the Soo, and obviously Guelph. The Liberals will likely finish fourth there (MS has them at 12%!) Most Liberals will just vote Green.

[DC Al Fine]

Pretty sound, DC. I disagree with Willowdale and the Soo, and obviously Guelph. The Liberals will likely finish fourth there (MS has them at 12%!) Most Liberals will just vote Green.

I've been burned too many times thinking Guelph will get picked off. Now watch it get picked off

[ON Progressive]

Popular vote:  
Liberals: 20%
PC: 36%
NDP: 38%
Greens: 4%
Other/Independents: 2%

Seats:
Liberals: 4
PC: 65
NDP: 54
Greens: 1
Other/Independents: 0

Battle Ground riding predictions:

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean - NDP
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP
Peterborough - NDP

905 Belt
Ajax - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge - PC
King-Vaughan - PC
Brampton-East - NDP
Brampton-North - NDP
Mississauga-lake shore - PC
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre - PC
Scarborough Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Southwest - NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Toronto-centre - NDP
University-Rosedale - NDP
Etobicoke North - PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore - PC
Etobicoke Center - PC
York South Weston - PC
Humber River Black Creek - NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington - PC
Oakville - PC
St Catherine’s - NDP
Brantford-Brant - NDP
Guelph - Green
Waterloo - NDP
London North-Centre - NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury - NDP
Sault Ste Marie - NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Beaches-East York - PC

wut?

[ON Progressive]

Beaches-East York - PC

wut?

Oops. Gonna change that to NDP.

[DabbingSanta]

Conservative 38%
NDP 36%
Liberal 20%
Green 4%
other 2%

Conservative 65
NDP 53
Liberal 5
Green 1

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

NDP 43%
PC's 38%
OLP 17%
Greens 5%

Seats
NDP 70
PC's 54

I'd do riding predictions but that strikes me as a profound waste of time because this election will be an earthquake. My only prediction is that the NDP will do much better in the Toronto suburbs than anyone currently expects, that Ford will lose Etobicoke North (tough riding, the NDP consolidating helps a great deal, his personal popularity notwithstanding), the NDP wins a number of affluent Toronto ridings, including Don Valley West (this is a very unhinged prediction but I'll stick with it).

Now that voters have no choice but to see this as a NDP-PC race and with Ford being a very unpopular politician with 0 credibility, in contrast with Horwath who is well-liked, I don't think the PC's will pull this off. The polls that show the PC's ahead and the breathtaking ignorance of pundits, who continue to insist that a NDP popular vote win will translate to a substantial PC majority, will help push undecided voters (largely Lib/NDP fencesitters) and Libs to the NDP. Maybe I'll be wrong - I hope not! Doug Ford is a terrible person.

[Wisconsin+17]

I have it at 37/37/19.

Looks like the liberals are sinking quickly. Could be a very interesting election, or it could be over quite early.

I have 30 seats right now at TCTC. Will depend on how the Liberal vote holds up. I want to wait a bit more before making final prediction.

Seat count, I have the PCs at 62. My last count had them at 59, but with a larger lead due to the liberal collapse.

[adma]

the NDP wins a number of affluent Toronto ridings, including Don Valley West (this is a very unhinged prediction but I'll stick with it).

I think the NDP winning DVW would require the Libs sinking to single digits provincewide.

[Wisconsin+17]

Actually their strongest riding is St. Paul, where they are +10. At 15%, they could lose every riding.