Lebanese general election (May 6th 2018)

[palandio]

Next Sunday Lebanon will elect a new parliament. The election would regularly have been held in 2013, but the Syrian civil war and internal Lebanese gridlock which left Lebanon without a President for several years caused a delay of five years.

The electoral law has been changed. In the past Lebanon was divided into multi-member constituencies. Each constituency was assigned a number of seats, distributed by religious denomination. For example the consituency of Akkar was assigned 7 seats (3 Sunni, 2 Greek Orthodox, 1 Maronite, 1 Alawite). Every voter registered in Akkar (regardless of denomination) had 7 votes (3 for Sunni candidates, 2 for Greek Orthodox candidates, 1 for Maronite candidates and 1 for Alawite candidates). The 3 Sunni candidates with the most votes were elected, and so on. This led to two alliances being formed which would then field 3 Sunni candidates each, and so on.

Now the number of consituencies has been reduced. But the major change is that seats are not assigned by majority, but vaguely proportionally (within each of the new constituencies). (In fact the new electoral law is a super-complex abomination.) The result is that there is in most consituencies a much more crowded field and much more competition, even in former strongholds.

This should be fun to watch. Feel free to contribute insights, analyses and opinions!

[DC Al Fine]

Can someone explain the major differences between the alliances and parties? It seems confusing that parties of the same sect would wind up in different denominations. Also is this election actually going to happen? Things have been delayed several times already.

[palandio]

[...] It seems confusing that parties of the same sect would wind up in different denominations. [...]

What do you mean by that?

Regarding the parties, they can be divided into those that were part of the anti-Hezbollah March 14 alliance (Future Movement, Lebanese Forces [LF], Kataeb,...), those that were part of the pro-Hezbollah March 8 alliance (Free Patriotic Movement [FPM], Amal, Hezbollah, Marada, SSNP...) and new alternative protest parties like "We are all National" whose support is difficult to predict before the election. Some parties (particularly the Progressive Socialist Party [PSP]) are notoriously opportunistic. The FPM, formerly led by current President Michel Aoun, seems to have triangulated between Future Movement and Amal/Hezbollah.

Until now the majority Sunni constituencies were dominated by the Future Movement, the majority Shia consituencies by Amal/Hezbollah, majoritiy Druze constituencies by the PSP, while the majority Maronite constituencies were a battleground between FPM(+Marada in the North) on the one side and LF/Kataeb on the other side.

The traditional parties not only have a heavy sectarian bias, but they are mostly dominated by warlords from the Civil War and their family dynasties. The notable exception (regarding "warlord, not regarding "dynasty") is Saudi-funded real-estate moghul Hariri with his Future Movement. Also Aoun was leading the official Lebanese army, so he cannot be counted as a complete feudal warlord like Geagea, Frangieh, etc.

The election is definitely going to happen.

The Wikipedia entry is very detailed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2018

[DC Al Fine]

Sorry, need more coffee. What I mean is that I am surprised that the Alliances are so religiously diverse. E.g. The Maronite FPM is in an alliance with Hezbollah. I would have figured that the alliances would tend more towards Christian v Muslim.

[palandio]

During the civil war the main cleavage was "Left" (pro-PLO) vs. "Right" (mostly Maronite), so quite close to Muslim vs. Christian. (Of course there was a lot of internal strife, too.)

Nowadays the main cleavage is Sunni vs. Shia and the Christians can only play the third fiddle which clearly shows you how their importance has diminished, due to both demographic trends and Saudi/Iranian influence.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Elections are currently underway!

[palandio]

Polls have closed, turnout seems to be very low.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Interesting article about election.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/05/lebanon-elections-parliament-five-trends.html

[Lechasseur]

Polls have closed, turnout seems to be very low.

Any reason for the low turnout?

[Aboa]

Polls have closed, turnout seems to be very low.

Any reason for the low turnout?

I don't think anyone believes elections will change anything.

[oddfellowslocal151]

Turnout is lowest in Beirut, higher in rural areas like Akkar. Beirut I (Ashrafieh + other places) is the place where independent candidates should have the best shot (Koullouna Watani is probably the most likely to get in), who knows with the turnout tho.

Other places of interest: the Metn, where the newly woke Kata'ib should be strongest; Tripoli, where Ashraf Rifi is looking to challenge Hariri; and Bsharri-Zghorta-Batroun-Koura, where a bunch of big political dynasties are running.

the essential blog Moulahazat has a good explainer to the new elections law

@Susannahwalden on twitter has the thresholds per district

[oddfellowslocal151]

Should also mention what the voting system is: (massively simplified) You vote for one candidate in one list. The total number of votes for the list determine seats, and the votes per candidate determine which gets elected. For the last few seats, sect comes into account - if a seat has say, 2 sunni seats and 1 shia seat, and the first two to get in are sunni, then the next seat goes to the highest performing shia (so they jump above other, more popular candidates if the candidates are sunni).

Joumana Haddad from Koulluna Watani is claiming that she's won a seat (Beirut I, minorities).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It looks like neither alliance will get a majority.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Should also mention what the voting system is: (massively simplified) You vote for one candidate in one list. The total number of votes for the list determine seats, and the votes per candidate determine which gets elected. For the last few seats, sect comes into account - if a seat has say, 2 sunni seats and 1 shia seat, and the first two to get in are sunni, then the next seat goes to the highest performing shia (so they jump above other, more popular candidates if the candidates are sunni).

Way to encourage voter participation!
Also, I know the election probably won't change much, but I'm holding out hope that the people who want to destroy my home and kill my family and their supporters perform disappointingly. Because, you know, I like my home and my family

[oddfellowslocal151]

One more thing that should be mentioned- you vote not from where you live, but from where your ancestral hometown is. So, a ton of people in the southern suburbs of Beirut drive down to villages in the south, and a lot of people in East Beirut drive to Mount Lebanon. Meanwhile, a lot of voters in Beirut actually live out in the suburbs now, and drive back in today to vote (this is also the case, incredibly, in municipal elections. so, there are lots of villages with year-round populations in the double or single digits who swell every election day).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Looks like Hezbollah and the Amal alliance won this election now.

[Lechasseur]

One more thing that should be mentioned- you vote not from where you live, but from where your ancestral hometown is. So, a ton of people in the southern suburbs of Beirut drive down to villages in the south, and a lot of people in East Beirut drive to Mount Lebanon. Meanwhile, a lot of voters in Beirut actually live out in the suburbs now, and drive back in today to vote (this is also the case, incredibly, in municipal elections. so, there are lots of villages with year-round populations in the double or single digits who swell every election day).

That's interesting

[Lechasseur]

Looks like Hezbollah and the Amal alliance won this election now.

How's that possible? Aren't the shia only like 27% of the population or so? Doesn't the Maronite-Sunni alliance (Free Patriotic Movement-Future Movement) have a lot more potential votes?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Looks like Hezbollah and the Amal alliance won this election now.

How's that possible? Aren't the shia only like 27% of the population or so? Doesn't the Maronite-Sunni alliance (Free Patriotic Movement-Future Movement) have a lot more potential votes?

There's a lot of anti-Hariri sentiment that is negatively impacting the coalition, it's still early so it can change.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's being reported on Lebanese sites that Hezbollah-Amal have won all the seats in South Lebanon's 2nd and 3rd districts

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like Hezbollah and the Amal alliance won this election now.

How's that possible? Aren't the shia only like 27% of the population or so? Doesn't the Maronite-Sunni alliance (Free Patriotic Movement-Future Movement) have a lot more potential votes?

There are Maronites and other Christians on both sides, and in the past some Sunnis have sided with the Shias, though not so much anymore given that the main political cleavage is now being pro- or anti-Assad. It's really only the Shias who consolidate on just one side of the political divide.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/jostejougar1/status/993259407034241024

Fireworks going off when it appeared as if Hezbollah and Amal have pulled it off.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Tripoli numbers coming in—here's the seat distribution according to three campaigns:
Future Movement: 4-5
Azm (Mikati): 3-4
Karami: 2-3
Rifi: 0

[America Needs R'hllor]

Looks like Hezbollah and the Amal alliance won this election now.

Oh no. Well, no peace soon then- Lebanon will remain an enemy as long as it's controlled by the bloody-handed terrorists that involve it in wars abroad.

[rob in cal]

   In general how do Maronite political figures feel about Assad.  Wouldn't they kind of like him as being better, at least in theory, toward the Syrian Christians than most of his opponents?