TIPP Has Bush +4 (or not..?

[The Vorlon]

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=2602

Not sure if this is a new poll or not (?)

The date says March 29 -April 3rd, but that TIPP Poll had Kerry +2

The article sounds like it is new, but the date and results don't match...?

Anyway... these guys are a DAMN good firm BTW...

There "early warning" of trends coming up this year has been absolutely dead on.

(CPOD) May 4, 2004 – George W. Bush remains the top presidential candidate in the United States, according to a poll by Investor’s Business Daily. 44 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, a four per cent lead over prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Kerry debuted a new batch of television advertisements on May 2, which focus on his platform and biography. The spots—at an estimated cost of $25 million U.S.—will run until May 27.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of four per cent of respondents. The election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2004 U.S. presidential election?
George W. Bush (R)
 44%
 
John Kerry (D)
 40%
 
Ralph Nader (I)
 4%
 
Undecided
 13%
 
Source: Investor’s Business Daily
Methodology: Interviews to 818 registered American voters, conducted from Mar. 29 to Apr. 3, 2004. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.

NOTE - Results and date do not match - On this date TIPP had Kerry +2 (?)

[muon2]

Finally a poll that makes some sense. At least the battleground states are consistent with the overall national numbers.

[agcatter]

Vorlon, why do you give a lot of credibility to this outfit as opposed to some of the other polling organizations?

[agcatter]

Yeah, that didn't make sense with the Bush drop in Rasmussen the last two nights.  No way Bush is where he was two weeks ago.  Well, it was nice while it lasted - for a minute and a half anyway.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, why do you give a lot of credibility to this outfit as opposed to some of the other polling organizations?

Their track record is excellent.

They turn this thing into a daily tracking poll for the last 8 weeks or so of the race BTW.

In 2000 they caught and tracked almost perfectly the last week Gore Surge to dead even at the end. (Final call - Gore +1 vs +.51% actual)

Their methodology is very dull, bland, boring and utterly by the book. (all good things)  No kinky weighting to compensate for methodological flaws, no constraints, no assumptions.  

They buy a good sample (From Survey Sample Inc - same folks Gallup buys their samples from), make all their call backs, weight for age, gender, etc based on latest census estimates, add it up and publish the result...

Sounds simple don't it..? (cost a ton of money to do it right which is why so many folks "cheat")

They basically took Gallup's methodology and cloned it.

Almost Gallup quality methodologically speaking, and thats about as high a compliment as you can pay a firm

[agcatter]

That's good enough for me.  I'll be keeping an eye on this one over the next 6 months.

[The Vorlon]

That's good enough for me.  I'll be keeping an eye on this one over the next 6 months.

Gallup
TIPP
Teeter/Hart (Wall Street Journal)
Terrance Group(Battleground)
Harris
Fox
Mason-Dixon
AP/Ipsos-Reed

Look at these, burn the rest.... IMHO

[agcatter]

I use the Newsweek poll to carpet the bottom of my birdcage - along with the latest CBS poll.

[© tweed]

Gallup
TIPP
Teeter/Hart (Wall Street Journal)
Terrance Group(Battleground)
Harris
Fox
Mason-Dixon
AP/Ipsos-Reed

Look at these, burn the rest.... IMHO

I thought you said Democracy Corps was in the first tier also?

[The Vorlon]

Gallup
TIPP
Teeter/Hart (Wall Street Journal)
Terrance Group(Battleground)
Harris
Fox
Mason-Dixon
AP/Ipsos-Reed

Look at these, burn the rest.... IMHO

I thought you said Democracy Corps was in the first tier also?

They are, but they do very few polls... look at the odd one they do do..

The full list:

The Top Tier... Pretty darn good, most of the time...

Gallup (the real one, not the CNN/USAToday/Tracking version)
Battleground (Goaes/Lake/Perry) (mild GOP bias, maybe 1-2 points)
Tetter/Hart (Wall Street Journal/NBC News) (maybe a marginal GOP bias)
Mason Dixon - Damn good firm...
Fox News (Yes, liberals, check their historic record...)
Democracy Corps (Yes Republicans, James Carville's firm knows what they are doing.. marginal Dem bias)
TIPP/Infometrica (Investors Business Daily)
Snell/Perry/Lake
Yerxa/DDC
AP/Ipsos Reed
Harris

Addition to Original List:

POA (Public Opinion Strategies) - Very Good firm - with the HUGE caution that they will also, if required, produce a poll that says anything you want that poll to say...  They are "campaign pollsters" not media pollsters.  Rarely "officially" release polls anyway so likely will not see to many from these guys anyhow.

The Second Tier - Interesting, not worthless, but don't bet the farm....

Rasmussen (Misses the top tier, but not by much...still on "probation" after their 2000 presidential call)
ABC News (Strange weighting, but knocking on the top tier door)
Survey USA
ARG
Research 2000
PEW - very consistent, but has a structural 4 point Democratic bias.
Quinnipiac - Only University poll (I am familiar with) that's NOT totally $%$ing useless...

Third Rate...

CBS/NYTimes..

ok..they got LUCKY in 2000, but from 1980 to 1996 they AVERAGED missing the actually result by 2 and a half times the margin of error of their poll! - If they do ok this year, I might believe them.... maybe...

Newsweek..

(Historically waaaaay off the mark)

Time

(see Newsweek)

All off on his Own..

Zogby gets his own Category.  He is brilliant, and erratic.  

You would be crazy to ignore him, you would be just as crazy to take him at face value,

For the record, in 2002, he polled 17 races, he got 12 right, 5 wrong...  

Zogby is the "Drudge Report" of pollsters... he's often utterly wrong, but right just enough to keep you reading...