Israel Strikes Iran targets in Syria after rocket barrage, Iran vows retaliation
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  Israel Strikes Iran targets in Syria after rocket barrage, Iran vows retaliation
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Author Topic: Israel Strikes Iran targets in Syria after rocket barrage, Iran vows retaliation  (Read 1309 times)
Torie
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« on: May 10, 2018, 05:55:06 AM »
« edited: May 10, 2018, 06:01:43 AM by Torie »

Iran launches a rocket barrage (which appears to have been almost totally "ineffectual") against Israel in the Golan Heights (not sure why or what precipitated that), Israel apparently does an extensive bombing of Iranian targets in Syria, and Iran vows to lash back.

Where might all of this lead to? Under what circumstances might it have any impact on the EU decision to just say no to the Trump reimposition of sanctions against Iran? I am puzzled as to just why Iran at this point in time decided to ramp things up with Israel, so far with seemingly unpleasant results for it as Iran gets the short end of the stick for its initiation of this round of hostilities. Did they dislike Netanyahu's speech praising Trump's US pullout from the Iranian deal or something?
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dead0man
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2018, 06:15:39 AM »

How can it be "retaliation" if THEY struck first?

As for your question....they probably thought the missiles would work...I mean, why else launch them.  Unless Persians are as dumb as Gazans.....that would be amazing, but I'm not buying it.  So they thought the missiles would work and this would be a good way to show Trump/the West/the US/Israel/whomever that Iranians mean business.  Of course their sh**t failed and Israel's sh**t didn't, now they must "retaliate" to save face.  They can't be dumb enough to try something else militarily, could they?


So they'll do the only thing the Iranian govt is good at, they'll blow something up where a lot of civilian Jews are in some third country 2 years from now.  Ya know, like the cowards that they are.  And their allies in the west will drag their feet and say....you can't PROVE it was the Iranians, and then when you can prove it they'll say, well yeah, but it's not like they didn't provoke them, and on and on.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2018, 06:19:15 AM »

Potentially it was someone lower down the chain of command who authorized the rocket barrage. If so, while I don't expect Iran to ever admit that, it sucks to be him right now. As for why, probably whoever authorized the barrage wanted to ensure Iran was locked in to a hardline position and Israel happened to be the easiest way to achieve it.
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2018, 06:26:47 AM »

TF's theory is interesting. It is one way to make some sense of what seems to make no sense from the Iranian perspective. As for Iran lashing back, if it does what Dead0 muses about, then does that not run the risk for Iran that the EU will revert to sanctions over all of this, as opposed to following Trump's moves?
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dead0man
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2018, 06:31:51 AM »

If they blow something up and have plausible deniability long enough for the story to cycle off the front page, then the EU won't do anything.  Especially if they wait a year or two before they do it.

TF's theory is interesting and would make some sense, but there is no proof of it.  Israel's neighbors shoot missiles at them all the time, including Iran's allies.  This isn't unusual.
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2018, 06:34:27 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2018, 06:41:13 AM by Torie »

If they blow something up and have plausible deniability long enough for the story to cycle off the front page, then the EU won't do anything.  Especially if they wait a year or two before they do it.

TF's theory is interesting and would make some sense, but there is no proof of it.  Israel's neighbors shoot missiles at them all the time, including Iran's allies.  This isn't unusual.

Waiting a year or two, would be a "retaliation" attended by a lot of patience. In the meantime, there will be a huge disconnect between Iran's rhetoric and what they do. That kinds of reminds me of Trump (in his case thank heavens). And if Iran denies that it was the perp, then how can it ever claim that it retaliated at all?

As to a lack of evidence, well yeah. At the moment, we are in the idle speculation mode. But I find this more interesting (and perhaps important), than speculation and flame wars about how many seats the Pubs will lose in Congress, based on stuff that to me, lacks statistical robustness this far out, but that is just me.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2018, 06:52:39 AM »

TF's theory methinks probably holds some grains of truth. Like most Middle East national armies, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is kinda its own institution free of oversight. This fact is what brought down a few Middle East regimes (then brought them back) during the Arab Spring. The guard has already been very vocal about Iran abandoning the deal and projecting strength, even as the 'moderate' govt is more trying to play the victim. So yeah, I suspect the military ordered the strike over domestic politics, and to ensure their view was forced upon the leadership.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2018, 07:06:01 AM »

The Iranian regime is going to run out of support if they try and match their military capability against Israel.

It's a disgraceful outcome for a country and people that has a long and wealthy history.

The stupidest possible thing for Iran today is to attack Israel.

Trump has essentially given them a free license to knock the piss out of them.







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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2018, 07:43:21 AM »

That Iran launched a (pointless and ineffective) rocket attack against Israeli positions at this particular moment is very convenient for Iran hawks in the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Not so much for Iran and it's allies.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2018, 10:48:43 AM »

Is anyone thinking as well that Assad is pretty stupid to step into the Israeli trap by destracting the Syrian army and Iranians from cleaning the remaining "rebel" areas in the country ?

Either this, or Assad doesn't have the Iranians under control there and they already do what they want ...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2018, 12:19:49 PM »

Is anyone thinking as well that Assad is pretty stupid to step into the Israeli trap by destracting the Syrian army and Iranians from cleaning the remaining "rebel" areas in the country ?

Either this, or Assad doesn't have the Iranians under control there and they already do what they want ...
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palandio
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2018, 01:08:14 PM »

Is anyone thinking as well that Assad is pretty stupid to step into the Israeli trap by destracting the Syrian army and Iranians from cleaning the remaining "rebel" areas in the country ?

Either this, or Assad doesn't have the Iranians under control there and they already do what they want ...
Iran was always pursuing its own agenda in Syria, it just happens that stabilizing Assad and sending him some auxiliaries was a strategically necessary step in the plan.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2018, 01:25:45 PM »

Let me give you my own experience of the events, though I think it might make explaining the recent events even tougher.

Basically, at about the same time Trump made his speech, we started getting panicked notifications from our media that the IDF is "preparing" for something and that an Iranian attack is imminent. It seems like the Israeli bion detected the intentions of the Iranians, and around that time, we got first reports of explosions near Damascus. When the fog cleared, we've discovered that the Israeli airforce destroyed a bunch of missiles aimed directly at Israel. If I recall it correctly, there was another bunch of missiles destroyed before they could be fired later on, and then a barrage they actually managed to fire at the Golan Heights, but it fell entirely flat- some hit open plains, others were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system. Israel retaliated, as you wrote in the OP. Overall, this seemed to have been a massive military embarrassment for Iran, failure after failure as Israel was a step ahead every time.

As to why they did that... TF's explanation is interesting, but I believe it's incorrect. The missiles weren't fired by the Iranian army directly, but by the Quds Force, an Iranian force operating in the levant. Their commander, Qasem Soleimani, got some attention from our media and was apparently "in command of the Iranian efforts to retaliate against Israel". So, in light of this wording used by our media and of the fact he's still very much fine, my belief is that this is not Soleimani's personal decision, but orders from above. The reason? Might be an attempt to soil Trump's announcement, perceived as a victory for Israel. Think about it- Bibi receives his wishes, the President of the United States withdraws from the agreement and imposes new sanctions... and then dozens of missiles fall on Israeli territory, potentially killing civilians or military personnel. This could've sent a powerful message- we're here, we're powerful, and we don't fear you. Israel is the only logical target for it, given that attacking the U.S. would have disastrous consequences for the regime. Fourtunately, it fell heavily flat, and was instead a success for Israel.
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swl
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2018, 03:43:45 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2018, 04:08:46 PM by swl »

I am puzzled as to just why Iran at this point in time decided to ramp things up with Israel, so far with seemingly unpleasant results for it as Iran gets the short end of the stick for its initiation of this round of hostilities. Did they dislike Netanyahu's speech praising Trump's US pullout from the Iranian deal or something?

Israel has been bombing Iranian targets in Syria for a while, Iran had warned they would react the next time.

For example, see this article posted the day before the Iranian attack:
Quote
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http://time.com/5270362/israel-attacked-syria-trump-iran-deal/

It seems that Israel struck a new Iranian target on May 8th, to which Iran retaliated with rockets, and Israel retaliated to the retaliation.

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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2018, 04:28:10 PM »

I am puzzled as to just why Iran at this point in time decided to ramp things up with Israel, so far with seemingly unpleasant results for it as Iran gets the short end of the stick for its initiation of this round of hostilities. Did they dislike Netanyahu's speech praising Trump's US pullout from the Iranian deal or something?

Israel has been bombing Iranian targets in Syria for a while, Iran had warned they would react the next time.

For example, see this article posted the day before the Iranian attack:
Quote
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http://time.com/5270362/israel-attacked-syria-trump-iran-deal/

It seems that Israel struck a new Iranian target on May 8th, to which Iran retaliated with rockets, and Israel retaliated to the retaliation.

The targets struck before are, indeed, Iranian outposts. But specifically in that day, it was a preemptive strike on missiles targeting Israel.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2018, 06:54:46 AM »

Thanks guys for sharing your knowledge and insight with those like myself who are relatively ignorant on this matter. I appreciate it.
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