Who wins Iowa? Who wins NH? Who drops out by then?
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  Who wins Iowa? Who wins NH? Who drops out by then?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Who wins Iowa? Who wins NH? Who drops out by then?  (Read 1600 times)
Blue3
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« on: May 12, 2018, 01:12:26 AM »
Who wins Iowa?

Who wins New Hampshire?

After those two, who is still in, and who has dropped out?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2018, 03:23:37 AM »
Biden both if he runs. If he doesn't (what I think).

Iowa: Klobuchar

New Hampshire: Harris (the nominee) (Bernard if he runs, but doubt it)
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2018, 06:04:25 AM »
Assuming Biden and Sanders don't run...

Iowa: Elizabeth Warren

New Hampshire: Kirsten Gillibrand

And for fun...

South Carolina and Nevada: Kamala Harris
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2018, 02:26:08 PM »
I'd bet that John Delaney will drop out after NH.
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Sestak
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2018, 04:58:53 PM »
IA: Jon Tester

NH: Jon Tester
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2018, 09:43:52 PM »
Iowa: Amy Klobuchar (she's got the neighboring state bonus, which should help her here)

New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders if he runs, otherwise Elizabeth Warren (both have a neighboring state bonus, and both will likely be in top three in Iowa)

Nevada: Kamala Harris (Neighboring State and all)

South Carolina: Cory Booker (I can see Harris winning here, but I think Booker has stronger ties to the Black community. As such he'll be tougher to beat in South Carolina, as well as other Southern States).
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JG
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2018, 12:09:47 PM »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on May 12, 2018, 09:43:52 PM
Iowa: Amy Klobuchar (she's got the neighboring state bonus, which should help her here)

New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders if he runs, otherwise Elizabeth Warren (both have a neighboring state bonus, and both will likely be in top three in Iowa)

Nevada: Kamala Harris (Neighboring State and all)

South Carolina: Cory Booker (I can see Harris winning here, but I think Booker has stronger ties to the Black community. As such he'll be tougher to beat in South Carolina, as well as other Southern States).

Is the neighboring state effect an actual thing?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2018, 01:36:24 PM »
Quote from: JG on May 13, 2018, 12:09:47 PM
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on May 12, 2018, 09:43:52 PM
Iowa: Amy Klobuchar (she's got the neighboring state bonus, which should help her here)

New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders if he runs, otherwise Elizabeth Warren (both have a neighboring state bonus, and both will likely be in top three in Iowa)

Nevada: Kamala Harris (Neighboring State and all)

South Carolina: Cory Booker (I can see Harris winning here, but I think Booker has stronger ties to the Black community. As such he'll be tougher to beat in South Carolina, as well as other Southern States).

Is the neighboring state effect an actual thing?

Sanders wouldn't have won New Hampshire by as much as he did without being from Vermont.
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Pollster
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« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2018, 11:49:31 AM »
Quote from: JG on May 13, 2018, 12:09:47 PM
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on May 12, 2018, 09:43:52 PM
Iowa: Amy Klobuchar (she's got the neighboring state bonus, which should help her here)

New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders if he runs, otherwise Elizabeth Warren (both have a neighboring state bonus, and both will likely be in top three in Iowa)

Nevada: Kamala Harris (Neighboring State and all)

South Carolina: Cory Booker (I can see Harris winning here, but I think Booker has stronger ties to the Black community. As such he'll be tougher to beat in South Carolina, as well as other Southern States).

Is the neighboring state effect an actual thing?

Voters are usually more familiar with candidates from neighboring states due to overlapping media markets. It's not necessarily a strong bond voters feel to the states next to them, but rather just a name recognition advantage. Also a lot easier for candidates to travel to/campaign in neighboring states rather than to have to fly/drive hours to get to events.
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YE
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2018, 11:54:59 AM »
IA - Sanders or Biden (Do people really expect Klobuchar to be relevant enough to win Iowa?)

NH- Warren or Sanders (should be obvious unless both run and I'm not sure why people still think neither would run)

NV - Harris (depends on Reid machine though)

SC - Booker or Harris (could see loser dropping out
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2018, 10:38:35 PM »
Quote from: YE on May 14, 2018, 11:54:59 AM
IA - Sanders or Biden (Do people really expect Klobuchar to be relevant enough to win Iowa?)

NH- Warren or Sanders (should be obvious unless both run and I'm not sure why people still think neither would run)

NV - Harris (depends on Reid machine though)

SC - Booker or Harris (could see loser dropping out



Klobuchar is the kind of candidate that probably wins Iowa and Iowa only.

Also, I can't see Reid actually backing Harris. She might get endorsements from a Democratic Governor should one be elected in 2018, Cortez Masto or Rosen (should she win her Senate race), but I think Reid realizes his time has more or less passed. He'll leave everyone to their own devices this time.

In South Carolina, Booker has the advantage, unless Harris wins Nevada and one of Iowa and New Hampshire.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2018, 10:50:52 PM »
Different candidates winning each of the first four contests is something that's quite unlikely.  I guess it happened in 1992, but usually even in a crowded contest you're not going to get more than 3 candidates who get anywhere.
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Sherrod Brown Shill
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2018, 06:35:32 AM »
Brown wins both (lol).

After the New Hampshire Primary I assume these people will have dropped out:

Merkley, Holder, Garcetti, Gutierrez, McAullife, Cuomo, Delaney, Steyer, Klobuchar, Patrick, and O'Malley.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2018, 08:01:54 AM »
Bernie wins both if he runs.
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2018, 08:51:52 AM »
this probably
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2018, 02:09:35 PM »
Not sure about Iowa, Sanders or Warren if one of them runs

Biden’s wins New Hampshire.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2018, 06:27:01 PM »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on May 14, 2018, 10:38:35 PM
Quote from: YE on May 14, 2018, 11:54:59 AM
IA - Sanders or Biden (Do people really expect Klobuchar to be relevant enough to win Iowa?)

NH- Warren or Sanders (should be obvious unless both run and I'm not sure why people still think neither would run)

NV - Harris (depends on Reid machine though)

SC - Booker or Harris (could see loser dropping out



Klobuchar is the kind of candidate that probably wins Iowa and Iowa only.

Also, I can't see Reid actually backing Harris. She might get endorsements from a Democratic Governor should one be elected in 2018, Cortez Masto or Rosen (should she win her Senate race), but I think Reid realizes his time has more or less passed. He'll leave everyone to their own devices this time.

In South Carolina, Booker has the advantage, unless Harris wins Nevada and one of Iowa and New Hampshire.

It sounds like, by your analysis, that Klobuchar could end up being a female Tom Harkin from back in 1992.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2018, 06:28:13 PM »
I still think Klobuchar is more likely to be a female Gephardt from 2004: Bet everything on Iowa, but only come in 4th place, and then drop out.
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2018, 12:00:19 PM »
Klobuchar would only win states like Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.
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