Australian by-elections, 2018

[adma]

Also, the NDP won St. Paul's with less share than Labour earned in their 2017 Cities of London & Westminster loss.  And University-Rosedale is not comparable because of the Annex et al tail wagging the Rosedale dog.


If Wentworth fell, it'd be in the event of a centrist force a la the Canadian Liberals taking command.  Or in the unlikelihood of a Green surge at the expense of Labor...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Also, the NDP won St. Paul's with less share than Labour earned in their 2017 Cities of London & Westminster loss.  And University-Rosedale is not comparable because of the Annex et al tail wagging the Rosedale dog.


If Wentworth fell, it'd be in the event of a centrist force a la the Canadian Liberals taking command.  Or in the unlikelihood of a Green surge at the expense of Labor...

Wentworth is probably falling at the by-election. Just to the Independent Kerryn Phelps. Not to Labor and most certainly not to the Greens.

[DL]

We have been discussing Wentworth for a while now. Could someone give a more detailed description of the demographics and the makeup of Wentworth as in what neighborhoods it consists of which parts are very rich and which ones are not so rich etc... Austrialan electorates are bugger than Canadian ridings so they tend to be pretty diverse.

[adma]

Wentworth is probably falling at the by-election. Just to the Independent Kerryn Phelps. Not to Labor and most certainly not to the Greens.

It almost seems to me that wherever it's viable, Independents are the closest Australian equivalent to a hypothetical "Canadian Liberal" force.  (Aside from South Australia's Centre Alliance, which is a bit too "radical middle" as opposed to "establishment middle".)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Wentworth is probably falling at the by-election. Just to the Independent Kerryn Phelps. Not to Labor and most certainly not to the Greens.

It almost seems to me that wherever it's viable, Independents are the closest Australian equivalent to a hypothetical "Canadian Liberal" force.  (Aside from South Australia's Centre Alliance, which is a bit too "radical middle" as opposed to "establishment middle".)

No. Independents, you might notice, almost solely win safe seats. Independents are elected by safe seats, particularly rural safe seats, to send a message to the party that holds the seat that they can't be taken for granted. The Independent serves a term or two and brings home a lot of pork. Then the party who naturally holds the seat gains it back and holds onto it for a while until the electorate once again feels that they're being taken for granted and the whole cycle starts again.
The Australian Liberals serve as the "Canadian Liberal" force. Why we are such a deeply divided party, is that our moderate wing is full on Classical Liberals. Contrast this with, say Britain, where the Tories moderates are only Liberal Conservatives.
Remember, Centre Alliance takes the position once occupied by the Democrats and before them by the Liberal Movement. South Australia had the most left-wing liberals in the country. Tom Playford was called a bolshevik by his colleagues, and not without warrant. He nationalised the electricity board, for gods sake. After Don Dunstan came around the good old Liberal County League split, with the moderates forming the Movement, and then moving over to the Democrats. The Democrats then managed to keep the Liberals out of power for all but 3 terms up to 2018.
In every other state the small-l liberals stayed within the party, and controlled the Victorian branch until the Evangelicals took it over a couple of years ago and we still (barely) control the NSW branch.

In short, the Liberal party caters to what you describe as the '"Canadian Liberal" force', not Independents. Independents are about bringing home the pork.

[Tintrlvr]

We have been discussing Wentworth for a while now. Could someone give a more detailed description of the demographics and the makeup of Wentworth as in what neighborhoods it consists of which parts are very rich and which ones are not so rich etc... Austrialan electorates are bugger than Canadian ridings so they tend to be pretty diverse.

Map: https://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/files/2016/2016-aec-nsw-a4-map-wentworth.pdf

To my understanding, the Vaucluse peninsula is very, very old money while the rest of the district is mostly upper-middle class, though generally the Harbour coast is wealthier than inland or the Pacific coast.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We have been discussing Wentworth for a while now. Could someone give a more detailed description of the demographics and the makeup of Wentworth as in what neighborhoods it consists of which parts are very rich and which ones are not so rich etc... Austrialan electorates are bugger than Canadian ridings so they tend to be pretty diverse.

Map: https://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/files/2016/2016-aec-nsw-a4-map-wentworth.pdf

To my understanding, the Vaucluse peninsula is very, very old money while the rest of the district is mostly upper-middle class, though generally the Harbour coast is wealthier than inland or the Pacific coast.

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/wentworthby2018 The Tally Room as always has a fantastic map of the booth results (scroll down). The Liberal vote is closely correlated with income.

[DL]

I notice that Wentworth includes Paddington which is the “gay ghetto” of Sydney

[DL]

I notice that Wentworth includes Paddington which is the “gay ghetto” of Sydney

[King of Kensington]

The better Canadian comparison would be Vancouver-Langara and Vancouver-Quilchena, within the more authentically binary provincial realm of British Columbia.

In his book on Canada's political culture, Nelson Wiseman refers to BC as "Canada's Australia."

It would be interesting to see what would happen if the BC Liberals were led by a Stockwell Day type.  So far they've been led by a suit (Gordon Campbell), an erratic narcissist who is hard to classify ideologically (Christy Clark) and a patrician (Andrew Wilkinson).  Over the last decade the BC NDP has made signficant gains with culturally liberal professionals (i.e. Point Grey).

Australian elites don't seem to mind as much because I guess they find the "workers' party" too icky, so they stick with the likes of Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I notice that Wentworth includes Paddington which is the “gay ghetto” of Sydney

No. The Sydney LGBT community is focused on Taylor Square, Kings Cross and Darlinghurst, which are both over the border Division of Sydney.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

WENTWORTH

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Katter's	Robert Callanan	−	−	−
Greens	Dominic Wy Kanak	−	−	−
Voluntary Euthanasia	Shayne Higson	−	−	−
People	Steven Georgantis	−	−	−
Labor	Tim Murray	−	−	−
Justice	Ben Forsyth	−	−	−
Liberty Alliance	Tony Robinson	−	−	−
Liberal Democrats	Sam Gunning	−	−	−
Liberal	Dave Sharma	−	−	−
Independent	Angela Vithoulkas	−	−	−
Animal Justice	Deb Doyle	−	−	−
Science	Andrea Leong	−	−	−
Independent	Licia Heath	−	−	−
Arts	Barry Keldoulis	−	−	−
Independent	Kerryn Phelps	−	−	−
Sustainable	Kay Dunne	−	−	−
	Total formal votes	−	−	−
	Informal votes	−	−	−
	Turnout	−	−	−
Liberal	Dave Sharma	−	−	−
Independent	Kerryn Phelps	−	−	−
Liberal retain		Swing	−

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The AEC, meanwhile, continues to exhibit their incredible geographical competency with some rather inventively counterintuitive booth names!
https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1052514129951354880

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Half an hour till polls close in Wentworth.
Follow the count live on the ABC

[AustralianSwingVoter]

5 minutes to poll closing.
If you want to watch election night live on the ABC with Antony Green, then the ABC's youtube live stream is the best bet. They usually open it up on election night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSTH5sBWcVQ

[AustralianSwingVoter]

POLLS ARE CLOSED IN WENTWORTH

[AustralianSwingVoter]

AEC confirms preference count will be between Sharma and Phelps.
You can follow the official AEC results here.

[Intell]

Endorsing Phelps. I mean if I want was a Wentworth voter, I would make the decision on who to preference first in the ballot box and be undecided throughout the campaign (as I was). Eventually would prefrence Phelps (1) over Labor's Tim Murray due to how this loss would made them lose their majority and Phelps would fare better against Sharma than Tim Murray.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

First booth in, Double Bay East. Liberals down 27.1% on First Preferences. Phelps on 29.5%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSTH5sBWcVQ

Abc coverage.

I already posted the link above.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1053551605902000128

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sharma only got 63.5% primary in Vaucluse booth. You might not think that means anything but Vaucluse was literally the strongest Liberal booth in the country in the last few elections. 86.3% primary and 91.2% TPP last time for Turnbull.

[Intell]

95% chance that Phelps win this. The wealthier polling booths of the electorates have a swing about 25% to Phelp as do the less wealthier and more hipster parts of the electorates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And we have the first TPP from Double Bay East. 27.3% swing to Phelps.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sharma only got 63.5% primary in Vaucluse booth. You might not think that means anything but Vaucluse was literally the strongest Liberal booth in the country in the last few elections. 86.3% primary and 91.2% TPP last time for Turnbull.

And a 20% TPP swing in Vaucluse to 71.7%. Just a reminder, this is the strongest Liberal booth in the entirety of Australia.