Wazza [INACTIVE]
Wazza1901
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,927
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« on: March 07, 2019, 10:20:50 PM » |
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1988 was the peak of GOP suburban dominance. Though NJ didn't trend massively D, the nation as a whole from 88 to 92 just swung D rather heavily.
88: 13.64+R --> 5.91+R PVI
92: 2.37+D --> 3.91+R PVI
2 point D trend.
What caused NJ to remain a blue state was largely demographic in nature. NJ in 1990 was 74% non-hispanic white and now is only 58% non-hispanic white. NJ whites still broke for Trump 54-42 in 2016 according to CNN's exit polls. Another factor is the loss of GOP support in the North-East during the 90s, probably due to the transition from HW's Country Club conservatism to a party dominated more by evangelicons, from 92 to 96 the D trend was much more profound.
92: 2.37+D --> 3.91+R PVI
96: 17.86+D --> 9.34+D PVI
13.25 point D trend.
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