Ohio and Iowa 2016 redux?

[President Johnson]

Both used to be swing states, but in 2016 they went for Trump by 8 and 10 points. Which state(s) could be a Democratic version in 2020? In such a scenario, the Democrat at least wins a modest victory.

I'd say Florida could go Democratic by at least five points, something like 51-45%. And if Virginia still counts as some swing state, I predict the Democrat wins at least 54% of the vote while Trump ends up in the low 40s. Same in Colorado. Michigan could also go back to Obama 2012 levels.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Colorado.

[UncleSam]

If you mean states Trump won, he won’t lose any by 8 unless he’s losing nationally in a landslide. No place else is that swingy.

If you mean more traditional swing states than I could see Colorado or Virginia giving a dem a double digit win in 2020. I could also see New Hampshire swinging massively against Trump if Sanders is the nominee and potentially being a blowout. Florida is extremely unlikely to go six points for the Dems due to how polarized it is and how big it is.

[cvparty]

I don’t think Florida’s going to become lean D lul

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I agree with NH & AZ, disagree on FL. If dems are winning FL by 5+, they are probably winning in a victory like Obama 2008.

[Peanut]

CO and maybe AZ. NH maybe, and an itty-bitty chance at MI.

[libertpaulian]

AZ, GA, NC, or some combination of these.

To those who mention CO, NH, NV, and VA...the OP was referring to IA and OH, swing states which went for a Democrat in 2012, considered competitive in 2016, and ultimately went for a Republican.  These four states were competitive in 2016, went for a Democrat previously, but stayed with the Democrat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Virginia and Colorado will probably swing further left and start to resemble Iowa and Ohio in 2016. Florida will probably always be a swing state with the winner succeeding by less than 3% almost consistently.

[Politician]

Among Trump states: Arizona and Iowa itself
Among Clinton states: New Hampshire and Nevada

[Burke Bro]

Michigan: There seems to be a consensus on Atlas that Michigan is the most likely Obama -> Trump state to flip. If the Democrats nominate a strong midwestern candidate, I think they could win Michigan by >5%.

Iowa: I doubt the Democratic candidate could win >5% in Iowa, but I think Iowa is one of the likelier states to flip in 2020.

Nebraska 2nd: Maybe?

[Ben Trump]

NONE will move this way for DemocRats!
VA will be closer and maybe red this time!
NH will be red  and MN too and NV probably too
MI will be slightly blue this time 50/50

[Xing]

I can't believe no one's mentioned a certain Democratic-leaning "battleground", but I guess that UTDH will have mega coattails that transcend time and prevent NV from ever moving leftward.

[UncleSam]

NONE will move this way for DemocRats!
VA will be closer and maybe red this time!
NH will be red  and MN too and NV probably too
MI will be slightly blue this time 50/50

I lol'd

Though I could see MN / NH / NV flipping if Trump is doing really well I guess, though none would be surprises and all would be to the left of the nation in such a scenario. MI I think will still be to the right of the nation in 2020, though not by much. VA is blue now and is not going to be winnable for Republicans until another realignment hits - same with Colorado.

[twenty42]

Michigan: There seems to be a consensus on Atlas that Michigan is the most likely Obama -> Trump state to flip. If the Democrats nominate a strong midwestern candidate, I think they could win Michigan by >5%.

Iowa: I doubt the Democratic candidate could win >5% in Iowa, but I think Iowa is one of the likelier states to flip in 2020.

Nebraska 2nd: Maybe?

In what world does this give a conjecture any sort of credibility?

And LOL at these D+5 predictions for Florida. Obama only won it by 3 in 2008.

[pbrower2a]

NONE will move this way for DemocRats!
VA will be closer and maybe red this time!
NH will be red  and MN too and NV probably too
MI will be slightly blue this time 50/50

Paradoxically Minnesota could be slight R (R+2 or so)... but only in a landslide win for the Democratic nominee. Minnesota swings very little, so should the Democrat win nationally 57-41, Minnesota might go 55-43.  

You otherwise fail to recognize the weaknesses of Trump as President. He does not have to lose much as a national percentage in an even shift of the votes to barely lose the 2020 election.

At the least, Michigan will be to Trump in 2020 what Indiana was to Obama in 2012 -- a state that few could see going for Trump except locals, and for reasons not applicable the next time. (The RV industry that is a big part of the Indiana economy got hit for a triple-whammy of tight credit/high interest rates, the highest gas prices ever, and an ominous recession).  Those problems took care of themselves, but people could go back to voting Republican.

For me to be as crazy as you, I would have to say that Texas will go to any Democratic nominee in 2020. I can see the state trending D, but far from enough to go that way in a 50-50 election.

Many scenarios are possible, but none of them is a Trump landslide in 2020. His policies have hurt too many people.