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| | |-+  Could Democrats have won the 1952 presidential election?
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Author Topic: Could Democrats have won the 1952 presidential election?  (Read 1260 times)
Virginiá
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« on: May 20, 2018, 11:26:07 pm »

If so, with who?
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2018, 11:31:16 pm »

Not unless Ike ran as a Democrat. Kefauver likely makes it closer but while the GOP had little long term credibility due to the depression people were sick and tired of Dem rule after 20 years.  
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2018, 12:43:46 pm »

With Eisenhower as their nominee, it would be possible. Especially if he was against Taft. Otherwise, I can't envision a candidate who would've won it.

An Eisenhower-MacArthur election would've been interesting as well. I assume Eisenhower running as a Democrat would have left many of his Republican supporters in the MacArthur campaign.
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2018, 07:50:52 pm »

Eisenhower was going to win regardless of which party he ran under.
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2018, 09:57:08 pm »

Just going to throw out my obligatory reminder that Ike never even considered the possibility of ever running as a Democrat, per his own quotes in the book, The Presidents Club. Smiley
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2018, 08:41:34 am »

Eisenhower was going to win regardless of which party he ran under.


Not unless Ike ran as a Democrat. Kefauver likely makes it closer but while the GOP had little long term credibility due to the depression people were sick and tired of Dem rule after 20 years. 
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2018, 12:26:00 pm »

Only if Taft defeated Ike at the Convention, and even then the baggage of Truman and party fatigue would probably set in.
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2018, 04:48:29 pm »

Eisenhower was going to win regardless of which party he ran under.


Not unless Ike ran as a Democrat. Kefauver likely makes it closer but while the GOP had little long term credibility due to the depression people were sick and tired of Dem rule after 20 years. 

If Ike ran as a Dem, then the 1950's would probably be another Era of Good Feelings and Hoover the last GOP president.  Northern Dems would eventually split off as their own party.  IDK if they would call themselves progressives, but the platform would be similar to that.
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2018, 07:41:38 pm »

Is the question, "Could the Democrats have won the 1952 Presidential Election?"  Or is the question, "Could the Democrats have defeated Dwight Eisenhower in 1952?".

I don't believe that any Democrat could have beaten Eisenhower, especially after Nixon dodged the issue of his slush fund.  Had a Democrat like Sen. John Sparkman (D-AL) or even Sen Estes Kefauver (D-TN) led the ticket, they MIGHT have carried the entire South, but that didn't happen.  Adlai Stevenson was a candidate the Democratic Establishment came up with, and I'm not convinced he was the strongest candidate the Democrats could have come up with.

But what if Eisenhower had not been nominated?  What if the GOP nominated a Taft-Warren ticket?  After all, Eisenhower did NOT hava a majority after the votes were counted on the 1st ballot; it was a number of ballot switches at the end of the 1st ballot that swung it to Eisenhower.

Sen. Robert Taft (R-OH) had a LOT of support in the GOP, and there was, even then, a strong number of Republicans that believed that a small government conservative like Taft was what much of America wanted.  Warren was a favorite son, and the California delegation was kept in line by Nixon for Warren solely for the purpose of swinging the convention to Eisenhower, but Warren had been the VP pick in 1948 and had Presidential ambitions.  The GOP would have gotten behind a Taft-Warren ticket.  California's liberal and moderate Republicans would have swung to Taft for Warren, and California's conservative Republicans would have swung to Taft to be rid of Warren as Governor.

Let's consider this race:  Taft/Warren vs. Barkley/Johnson (LBJ).  How would THAT map have played out?



Barkley/Johnson (277) beats Taft-Warren (254) in the EC if EVERYTHING went right.
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2018, 01:10:58 am »

If Ike stayed on the sidelines, I don't think the Dems would've beaten Taft, but it would've at least been competitive. Ike's popularity was utterly impossible to overcome, and Adlai Stevenson knew it.
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2018, 02:28:36 am »

Eisenhower was going to win regardless of party affilation. Without Eisenhower, a Barkley/Stevenson ticket may have prevailed over Bob Taft if there was no Korean War. With the war, I predict a narrow Taft win.
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