(MAP) 2018 Primary Electorate by County (COMPLETE*)

[Adam Griffin]

And just for fun, a swing map between 2016's primary electorate and 2018's. Granted, it's not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison in several states (primary versus caucus, for example), but not completely futile for a large number of states:

[henster]

Dems definitely lost ME-02, bodes poorly for Golden.

[OneJ]

Dems definitely lost ME-02, bodes poorly for Golden.

Dems lost Ohio, but look at Cordray being statistically tied with DeWine.

[Adam Griffin]

Dems definitely lost ME-02, bodes poorly for Golden.

Eh, it's a lot closer than you might think. Adding together all the votes from all the whole counties in ME-2 gets you to around 45k votes for each party (well, at least in the GOP-GOV and DEM-HOUSE contests; haven't done an apples-to-apples comparison).

Several of those ME-2 counties that leaned in favor of the GOP were tiny victories. I still don't think the final numbers are available by county yet (from the looks of ME's crappy website)

And why can't they publish the raw turnout figures for CDs where incumbents are uncontested? This is so weird to me...not having candidates on the ballot when there are party primaries, just because those candidates are not being challenged.

[Adam Griffin]

With ~99% of California's votes finally counted, I've added the results to the county map (+ updated the statewide figures, which shifted considerably).

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

With ~99% of California's votes finally counted, I've added the results to the county map (+ updated the statewide figures, which shifted considerably).

Orange county even voted for the Democrats in the primary. Crazy!

[I’m not Stu]

How did Democrats get a large share of the primary vote in Oklahoma?

[Adam Griffin]

How did Democrats get a large share of the primary vote in Oklahoma?

Same reason as states like WV/KY/NC (closed primary systems; lots of ancestral Democrats in rural areas - in this case, Little Dixie - remaining local dominance of Democrats and a general laziness to update voter registration).

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure why I didn't add MD yesterday, but it's added now.

[Adam Griffin]

Bumping; partial results of TN now available.

[Adam Griffin]

MO & KS mostly complete; added.

[Adam Griffin]

Washington's tentative results added (along with all other counties reporting thus far from all of tonight's contests).

[Adam Griffin]

All current results added (HI/MN/WI/CT/VT).

[Dr. Arch]

Those western WI results are a thing of beauty. Bonus points for Iron County going D.

[Adam Griffin]

AK/WY figures added.

[Adam Griffin]

Went ahead and did AK's breakdowns by HD: can find it in the OP and here.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Went ahead and did AK's breakdowns by HD: can find it in the OP and here.

Dems in 11/40? Ouch

[Adam Griffin]

Went ahead and did AK's breakdowns by HD: can find it in the OP and here.

Dems in 11/40? Ouch

FWIW, AK's primary electorate was 65% GOP, 35% DEM in 2014 (63/37 this year); I haven't looked at the HD figures for that. A majority of voters are unaffiliated, which may create a psychological impact on primary participation (even though DEM primary is fully-open & GOP primary is semi-closed) since a good share of any winning Democratic coalition in AK will be independents & unaffiliateds.

[Adam Griffin]

Went ahead and did AK's breakdowns by HD: can find it in the OP and here.

Dems in 11/40? Ouch

FWIW, AK's primary electorate was 65% GOP, 35% DEM in 2014 (63/37 this year); I haven't looked at the HD figures for that. A majority of voters are unaffiliated, which may create a psychological impact on primary participation (even though DEM primary is fully-open & GOP primary is semi-closed) since a good share of any winning Democratic coalition in AK will be independents & unaffiliateds.

FTR, I went and looked at primary totals by HD for 2014. I probably need to see if I can find actual turnout totals for '14 by HD; all I saw at first glance on AK's website was the results by HD for each party's legislative primary. In that, 13 HDs went uncontested (3 w/ no ADL candidate & 10 w/ no GOP candidate; these are the ones with darkest red/blue shades).

Assuming that each uncontested district reflects a district where the unopposed party was the majority electorate, then Dems won 11/40 in the 2014 primary as well - but Democrats in 2018 swapped 2 district wins in Anchorage (HDs 17 & 23) for 1 in the panhandle (HD 34) and 1 near Fairbanks (HD 4).

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hey Griff. I was wondering if you're using the Senate or Gubernatorial Primary results to make this? Or is there a ballot count you're using?

[Adam Griffin]

Hey Griff. I was wondering if you're using the Senate or Gubernatorial Primary results to make this? Or is there a ballot count you're using?

Some states publish the actual turnout for each party's primary/ballot by county: where these are available, I use them.

Otherwise, I use the top contest on the ballot where both parties have available results. Some states don't have senatorial races this year; some don't have gubernatorial races. In a few states, the top contest is only on the ballot for one party (i.e. the state literally doesn't even put an uncontested race on the ballot), meaning you have to go to the next contest or project the outcome, as in the case of VA.

[Adam Griffin]

FL added.

[Adam Griffin]

AZ (sans Maricopa for the time being) added.

[Adam Griffin]

KY finally added its turnout figures by party and county - 3 months later. KY has been added to the map.

[Adam Griffin]

MA added. Since it was the only election that day, I also did a township map of the state: