(MAP) 2018 Primary Electorate by County (COMPLETE*) (user search)
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  (MAP) 2018 Primary Electorate by County (COMPLETE*) (search mode)
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Author Topic: (MAP) 2018 Primary Electorate by County (COMPLETE*)  (Read 12359 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,191
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: September 14, 2018, 02:34:10 PM »

Fantastic map Griff! Great work.

Does anyone have a convenient map showing which states have open, closed and semi-closed primaries? It'd help a lot in interpreting these patterns (like, it's pretty obvious given the results that WV and OK are closed, for example).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,191
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2018, 10:15:13 PM »

Fantastic map Griff! Great work.

Does anyone have a convenient map showing which states have open, closed and semi-closed primaries? It'd help a lot in interpreting these patterns (like, it's pretty obvious given the results that WV and OK are closed, for example).

More or less:



What's the difference between "partially open", "open to unaffiliated" and "partially closed"?

Also wait, since when does Nebraska have top-two?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,191
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2018, 01:59:10 PM »

Another way of looking at it is to assume that primaries are effectively "open" if the only restriction is that members of a party must pull their primary's ballot, and then compare those to states where unaffiliated voters are restricted in some way (or not permitted to vote at all). Obviously a few notable states (like NC) stick out in this comparison, but it does simplify the analysis.

Red states are where you absolutely have to be registered with that party in order to vote in its primary; yellow states have exceptions (listed below) and green states are either entirely open or only restrict party members from voting in other parties' primaries (AK is a unique partial exception):



That's really helpful, yeah! Thanks.

So, basically, the results in green states, as well as Alaska, can be taken as some indication for voting patterns going forward (although obviously some are still skewed by the lack of competitive primaries). The ones with "+" (including, apparently, NJ) can be taken as a very rough indication, and the other yellow ones and the red ones can be disregarded entirely.

I'm shocked about WV, given that the primary map still looks like something out of the 1960s.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,191
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2018, 03:13:00 PM »

Right, that makes sense.

So since that might be happening in other states like this, I guess only States in the two darkest shades of green on your map should be taken with any degree of seriousness.
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