Will Asians (as well as half-asians) stay in the Democratic Party?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I've thought for a while that the most fragile component of the "majority of minorities" coalition is the Asian demographic. Muslims aside, as these groups mix more with suburbs and lose their ID as "immigrants", what will separate them really from the voting habits of whites?

[Frodo]

I'll worry about it once the Republican Party fully separates itself from the white nationalists and neo-Nazis who came along for the ride with Trump's victory in the 2016 primary and general election.  

[cvparty]

yes

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

In the foreseeable future, yes.

The GOP needs to remove the hard edges of their platform and to start shedding their southern strategy offensive. This will take time but will likely become mandatory for them to win as the electorate in 2040 will be significantly more college educated and nonwhite.

[TDAS04]

As long as the Republicans maintain their hard-edged cultural conservatism and anti-intellualism.

Asian-Americans—especially the older ones—do have some socially conservative tendencies, but the current GOP is pretty repugnant to minorities.  Younger Asians aren’t going to forget the Trump era and Trump movement’s hostility towards cultural diversity anytime soon.  Some in the GOP may try to say “oh, Asians are so successful and family-oriented, they should be Republican”, but it’s not that simple.

[Bismarck]

Yes for now. Long term they may shift back depending on what direction the GOP moves, but they have no place in Trump’s party. I did have a Vietnamese immigrant woman tell me recently that Democrats were “beta males” though. So that was an enjoyable moment.

[mvd10]

At one point the GOP has to broaden its base beyond (non college grad) whites, and I imagine Asians will be the first group they court. Maybe it already happens in 2028/2032 if a very left-wing Democrat wins 2020 and 2024 (and maybe even 2028) and fatigue is a thing.

[Ogre Mage]

I am Asian-American.  Asian voters have been trending toward the Democrats since the 1990s.  From 2000 on, no Republican Presidential candidate has come anywhere close to winning the Asian vote.

So even before President Aryan Nation, the trend lines were clear.  But I think he has handed the Asian vote to the Democrats for a generation.  Asian voters support science and evidence, the GOP and President Pee Brain live in a science and evidence free zone.  Asian voters support the Affordable Care Act, the GOP is trying to destroy it.  Asian voters support immigrant rights, President KKK and the GOP are rabidly anti-immigrant.  I could go on and on.

A so-called President who praises neo-Nazi marchers and claims that global warming is a hoax created by the Chinese is not going to find support among Asian voters.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think I'm interested in situations like Canada, where the Conservatives (even with people compared to Trump and his ilk like the Fords) are able to rise quite healthy (even domineering) margins in Asian demographics.

Perhaps one wedge could be economic populism? In New Zealand, Chinese voters are staunchly National as the Labour/Green/Maori parties have become increasingly focused on the effect foreign capital (mostly Chinese) is having on urban housing. Same deal in areas of Canada as well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the really crucial question is whether the Asian voters will go the way of the white ethnic blocs or whether they will remain distinct from whites.

[Spark]

They will remain D for now but things may change in the next half century if the GOP can become more culturally diverse. They can appeal to them if they become more socially moderate and adopt more of the suburban coalition. If I were the GOP I'd start trying to bring the AAs into their fold and maybe the rest of the minorities will follow so we can see a drastic shift in electoral politics which would constitute a realignment. Still very unlikely though at this point since it's still well too early but it is more prudent for the GOP to start instituting these changes sooner rather than later.

[Mr. Morden]

I think the really crucial question is whether the Asian voters will go the way of the white ethnic blocs or whether they will remain distinct from whites.

There's also more interracial marrying (especially white-Hispanic and white-Asian) now as compared to a generation ago.  So what happens with the interracial kids?  How many of them will actually end up identifying as white?  My nephew, for example, has a comparatively dark skinned Cuban father, but he looks as white as I do.  So what will his racial identity be when he grows up?

[RINO Tom]

It's the "obvious" answer, but I think it's true: Asian Americans will remain solidly Democratic during the Trump Era and probably for 1-2 cycles afterward.  However, I think - by far - the most realistic outcome of the next 30-40 years is that Democrats DO eventually achieve a huge Electoral College advantage and start actually getting some serious governing power, leading to a bit of liberal overreach, specifically on economics.  This is inevitably going to cause at least a few economically moderate and/or affluent Democratic leaners to defect, just as overreach of economic conservatism caused defections from the GOP in the 1930s among some of their more working class supporters.  When will this happen?  Honestly, I defer to Technocratic Timmy, as I think his theories about such a realignment are very plausible.  I would make this total guess as to how Asians vote (actual votes in bold):

2012: 73% DEM, 26% GOP in a Democratic win
2016: 65% DEM, 29% GOP in a GOP win
2020: 76% DEM, 23% GOP in a Democratic win over Trump
2024: 78% DEM, 21% GOP in a Democratic re-election
2028: 69% DEM, 29% GOP in a Democratic successor's win (ala 1988 in reverse)
2032: 61% DEM, 37% GOP in a GOP win
2036: 55% DEM, 44% GOP in a GOP re-election

2032 would kind of represent the "my parents hated the GOP, but it seems to have really changed" type election, as the GOP would run a less culturally divisive, "check on the out-of-control liberal economic policies of the Democrats" type campaign and benefit from fatigue over one-party rule, and 2036 would represent a younger generation of Asian Americans (who are also more assimilated) being very open to a more culturally and socially moderate GOP that is also handily winning its re-election bid.

[TDAS04]

As long as the Republicans maintain their hard-edged cultural conservatism and anti-intellualism.

Asian-Americans—especially the older ones—do have some socially conservative tendencies, but the current GOP is pretty repugnant to minorities.  Younger Asians aren’t going to forget the Trump era and Trump movement’s hostility towards cultural diversity anytime soon.  Some in the GOP may try to say “oh, Asians are so successful and family-oriented, they should be Republican”, but it’s not that simple.

That kind of GOP thought is silly, but so is the "minorities will grow and continue to vote Democrat, forever and ever amen" that a lot of centre lefties like to posit.

The GOP is in a bad spot. At some point the Dems will have a significant advantage in the electoral college and Congress. Eventually their coalition will be too large and unwieldy. Some part of the majority coalition will feel they're not getting a fair shake, the issues will change, and that group will start to drift. We saw this with Southerners in the 1970's and upper middle class suburban whites in the 2000's and 2010's.

To me, it doesn't really matter how *insert bad thing here* the GOP is. We're talking change over a generation here. What matters is that Asians seem like the worst fit for the Dem coalition and therefore are the best candidate for the GOP to pick off eventually.

I didn’t say that minorities will always vote Democratic.  What I said was the the current GOP is a very bad fit for minorities.  The party appears very hostile towards immigrants, especially Hispanics and Muslims.  Many minorities see what’s going and and hear the rhetoric from the Trump wing of the party, such as downplaying of unarmed blacks getting shot and Trump’s “Pocohontas” crap.  Not all Republicans are racist, not even all Trump voters are, but many people see the GOP as an exclusively white Christian nationalistic group.  Trump has not been much help in dousing that perception, as seen with his reaction to Charlottesville.

Asians, especially successful ones, may not seem like the greatest fit for Democrats.  I wouldn’t be surprised if there is widespread support for the Conservative Party in Canada in the Chinese community, but I’m not sure the Conservatives have the anti-intellectual, xenophobic reputation that the GOP has.  I have read some conservative commentators wonder why the Indian-American community wasn’t more Republican (successful, religious, family-oriented).  A long time ago, they wondered the same about Jews (a very old joke went “Jews earn like Espiscopalians but vote like Puerto Ricans”).  The GOP was not the quite the same back then, but maybe there are parallels.  Identity politics matter.

Again, I didn’t say the GOP will be a certain way forever, but there are reasons why David Duke likes Trump so much.

[cvparty]

you guys might wanna look at educational attainment as a factor

[TML]

I think the only way the Republicans will be able to make significant inroads among Asian voters is if they back off their anti-immigration policies.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I alluded to this question in a NationStates forum discussion once.

I think Asians and urban/liberal mixed-Asians will remain Democratic-leaning overall but think there will be sharper divides along class lines and between foreign-born vs native-born. I can see more recently immigrated, relatively affluent Chinese and Indians swinging GOP on affirmative action like in 2016 but don't know what effect that will have on the overall Asian-American vote or if that can become a long-term trend.

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

Yes, but not in the levels they are in presently.

[RFayette]

I think that whatever happens, the Asian vote will go in the same direction as college-educated whites.  Because it seems difficult for the GOP to win in the future without college-educated whites, I think Asians will eventually trend toward the Republicans as the party moderates.

[Skill and Chance]

I think that whatever happens, the Asian vote will go in the same direction as college-educated whites.  Because it seems difficult for the GOP to win in the future without college-educated whites, I think Asians will eventually trend toward the Republicans as the party moderates.

This is the key.  As immigration declines, I would expect racial/ethnic categories to become broadly less significant as voting demographics with time.  This will really accelerate once Trump is out of office.  Think of what happened with the 1890-1920 wave of European immigrants after 1940 or so. 

Currently, the next strongest divide is education.  If we are in a long period without a major economic crisis, like 1939-1979 or 1894-1929 or 1826-1857, I think the education divide will just keep building until college grads are the Democrats' single strongest demographic. However, with the broad consensus on the value of a college degree now starting to erode, the share of the population with college degrees will quickly level off and could even start declining into midcentury.  

Of course, you will eventually run up against BYU, Hillsdale, Liberty, and Texas A&M, but it wouldn't shock me at all if the college grad vote as a whole is ~80D/20R (college whites specifically being ~2:1 Dem) in a tied 2040 election, with non-college being about ~67R/33D.  At least until the next economic crisis scrambles things, I expect GOP gains to be first among the remaining non-college white Dems and then heavily among black and Hispanic voters without college degrees, probably to the point that the Hispanic vote is a toss up and they are getting 35%+ of the black vote in 2040.  

[RFayette]

^I don't think a political party that is strongly left-wing on economic issues could win 80% of college grads, even with a college education having not as strong of a connection with income as it did in the past.  Do you think the economic left flank of the Democratic Party will be significantly weakened? 

[pppolitics]

Asians are an educated bunch.

As long the Republican Party is an anti-education, anti-science party, it would keep the Asians away.

[Skill and Chance]

^I don't think a political party that is strongly left-wing on economic issues could win 80% of college grads, even with a college education having not as strong of a connection with income as it did in the past.  Do you think the economic left flank of the Democratic Party will be significantly weakened? 

If the economy generally goes on meeting most people's needs most of the time into the 2030's-40's without a major crash?  Yes.  Also, I think it will be politically impossible to raise taxes on people making <$200K for the foreseeable future unless there is an economic depression.  And some of the major economic left proposals out there right now, like paid family leave, are actually quite popular with high income professionals.  I think you would need something like 50% federal income tax over $75K single/$125K married (Scandinavia basically has this today) to really push college grads back toward Republicans.  Do you think that will eventually happen here?

[RFayette]

^I don't think a political party that is strongly left-wing on economic issues could win 80% of college grads, even with a college education having not as strong of a connection with income as it did in the past.  Do you think the economic left flank of the Democratic Party will be significantly weakened?  

If the economy generally goes on meeting most people's needs most of the time into the 2030's-40's without a major crash?  Yes.  Also, I think it will be politically impossible to raise taxes on people making <$200K for the foreseeable future unless there is an economic depression.  And some of the major economic left proposals out there right now, like paid family leave, are actually quite popular with high income professionals.  I think you would need something like 50% federal income tax over $75K single/$125K married (Scandinavia basically has this today) to really push college grads back toward Republicans.  Do you think that will eventually happen here?

I am not saying that will eventually happen here, just that such a scenario could be seen as plausible by voters.  Especially if Democrats do come in power and enact things like UHC and paid family leave, the next step for those on the left edge of the party would be for tax rates approaching that level.  If those ideas are seen as within the universe of possibilities of electing Democrats, I think that would cause a rightward shift among those with higher incomes.  

[mvd10]

I don't think any party can win 80% of the college-educated, so I'm inclined to agree with RFayette. I do think the Democrats will have a strong advantage with postgraduates (people with 'just' a 4-year college degree actually usually vote Republican), I guess postgraduates will be 55/60% Dem while college graduates are pretty much tied. But winning 80% of college graduates implies a huge victory among wealthy voters, and I can't think of many elections where the wealthy voted to the left of the national average (Italy 2018? But the left there reduced taxes and deregulated the labour market). Class voting in the US is much less strong than in other countries (I believe class voting is strongest in Scandinavia and weakest in the US and Canada), so I guess if it happens anywhere it would be in the US. But the economically left-wing party has never overperformed with wealthy voters and I doubt it would happen in the future, especially if the Democrats follow the Bernie route (which is entirely possible now people like Gillibrand endorse all kind of leftist proposals). Even Trump won voters earning over $250k, and what possible Republican nominee could do worse than Trump among those voters in a non-landslide (and do Democrats have someone who can do better than Hillary Clinton)?

Wealthy voters and educated voters are 2 entirely different groups though. Plenty of people go to university and study something they really love, but which doesn't have good job prospects (or they'll go into teaching or whatever). Since almost everyone goes to college now there will be even less of a correlation between wealth and having a college degree, and college grads might take over jobs that usually are done by non-college grads. Postgraduate-educated people with socially liberal values and no money vote for the Democrats en masse. So maybe the Dems winning massive majorities with college-educated voters is possible is the majority of these college-educated voters end up in sh**tty service jobs (with the GOP winning wealthier college-educated voters and rural non-college grads).
 
We shouldn't forget that college grads voted to the right of the nation in 2012 btw, so the Republicans don't even have to abandon all of their principles to win those voters back. If the GOP is to expand its coalition the lowest-hanging fruit probably will be wealthy voters who abandoned the GOP for the Democrats in 2016/2020. What else could the GOP do? Try to win lower income inner city minorities? Getting to 85% with non college grad whites (who are shrinking as a group)? Good luck lol.