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| | |-+  Why did George H.W. Bush lose in 1992?
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Author Topic: Why did George H.W. Bush lose in 1992?  (Read 2788 times)
m4567
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« Reply #25 on: April 21, 2018, 02:09:46 am »

He wasn't bad, but just enough things went against ihim:

1. Two strong oponents
2. Weak economy
3. Lack of charisma/clear vision
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« Reply #26 on: April 21, 2018, 03:28:15 am »

Obviously, he was seen as quite out-of-touch with the public in general. Arguably he only got the nod (both in the primary and general) due to Reagan's blessing and association.

I think there's also something to be said about the 1980s. While plenty would classify it as a huge boom-time economically (as it was, at least on paper; that of course excludes the structural debt created to prop up said boom), it was arguably the first full decade where a significant segment of Americans began to see their standards of living decline markedly. You can in some ways compare Reagan's second term and GHWB's term to that of Obama's two terms: relatively large economic gains compared to the starting point, but a lot of blue-collar people left to wither on the vine.

I think some of the same underlying sentiments that defeated Hillary also defeated GHWB - though they were of course much less hostile in terms of how they expressed themselves in the case of the latter.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #27 on: April 21, 2018, 11:25:19 am »

I think there's also something to be said about the 1980s. While plenty would classify it as a huge boom-time economically (as it was, at least on paper; that of course excludes the structural debt created to prop up said boom), it was arguably the first full decade where a significant segment of Americans began to see their standards of living decline markedly. You can in some ways compare Reagan's second term and GHWB's term to that of Obama's two terms: relatively large economic gains compared to the starting point, but a lot of blue-collar people left to wither on the vine.

I think some of the same underlying sentiments that defeated Hillary also defeated GHWB - though they were of course much less hostile in terms of how they expressed themselves in the case of the latter.
It's no coincidence that Pat Buchanan, a proto-Trump, ran in 1992.
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twenty42
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« Reply #28 on: April 25, 2018, 04:10:09 am »

Irrespective of candidates and campaigns, HW was fighting an extremely uphill battle against historical trends alone. Republicans were not only running for their fourth consecutive term in the White House, but also doing so in the wake of a 10-point Dem swing in 1988 and decisive Dem victories in the 1990 midterms. I know we like to think of 1992 as a masterful, against-the-odds victory for Clinton, but realistically the dam had been getting ready to break for a while.

To me, the most interesting thing about 1992 was the rampant distaste for both major political parties that ignited the surge for Perot. Despite the bad economy and Republican fatigue, there were still millions of Democrats who rejected Clinton due to his scandals and then-Bohemian centrism. This is unimaginable in today’s polarized political atmosphere, where the two most unpopular presidential candidates in history still both managed to score at least 46% of the PV.
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gottsu
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« Reply #29 on: April 25, 2018, 06:21:31 am »

Clinton was simply younger and more charismatic and had a very keen campaign staff, composed of young peoples, too. Bush was nothing more than a stable, old-line Republican uncle from Texas with his large approval ratings (First Gulf War). I guess, every presidential candidate would love to have such staff like Clinton in '92.
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« Reply #30 on: April 25, 2018, 08:32:54 am »

The economy.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2018, 08:43:27 am »

I know we like to think of 1992 as a masterful, against-the-odds victory for Clinton, but realistically the dam had been getting ready to break for a while.
I think what people say was surprising was that Clinton got nominated.
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dw93
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« Reply #32 on: April 26, 2018, 01:05:29 pm »

I know we like to think of 1992 as a masterful, against-the-odds victory for Clinton, but realistically the dam had been getting ready to break for a while.
I think what people say was surprising was that Clinton got nominated.

Clinton getting nominated wasn't really a surprise at all. The field was weak as a lot of top tear, big name Democrats (Cuomo, Gore, Gephardt, Bentson, Bradley, etc...) sat the race out fearing Bush would be unbeatable due to the success of the Gulf War and the fall of the Soviet Union. 
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twenty42
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« Reply #33 on: April 29, 2018, 02:54:47 pm »

I know we like to think of 1992 as a masterful, against-the-odds victory for Clinton, but realistically the dam had been getting ready to break for a while.
I think what people say was surprising was that Clinton got nominated.

If you watch the Election Night returns on YouTube, you'll hear the commentators over and over again talk about how shocking the D wave was that night after R's were doing so well a year ago. This stood in stark contrast to 2008, where it seemed like the media was just going through the motions to get to the big moment at 11:00.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #34 on: April 29, 2018, 07:55:05 pm »

The main reason Bush lost was because of the recession and his indifferent response to it.

The second reason was the realignment that came to fruition in the Northeast.  The Northeast became the Democratic base in response to the rise to prominence of Evangelicals in the GOP and Northeasterners' distaste for this.

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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2018, 08:44:25 am »

It's the economy, stupid.
/thread; after the success of the gulf war, it would had been a landslide if the economy didn't go to sh@t
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