Young people in Europe and the centre-right's existential crisis

[palandio]

[...]

@Hifly: Your claims are not completely supported by the representative electoral statistics which for 2017 give:

Party: share of total vote; share of age 18-24 vote; share of 25-34 vote;
CDU: 26.8; 19.9; 21,4;
SPD: 20.5; 18.4; 17.1;
Linke: 9.2; 10.5; 10.9;
Greens: 8.9; 14.6; 11.1;
CSU: 6.2; 5.1; 5.4;
FDP: 10.7; 13.2; 11.4;
AfD: 12.6; 8.0; 12.8;
Others: 5.0; 10.4; 9.8.

So yes, the SPD has problems with the youth vote, but less than CDU/CSU. The Linke on the other hand, is now stronger among the youngest voters than on average, differently from past elections.

[...]

Palandio is that an exit poll?
[...]

No. Instead in ca. 3% of precincts the real ballots are marked with information regarding gender and age.

For more informations see:
https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2017/informationen-waehler/rws.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the really important data to look at (not that I have it) would take into account abstention levels amongst young people. I get the feeling (especially in the ex-communist countries) looking at the youth votes without looking at those people who aren't voting for whatever reason is misleading.

[mvd10]

I don't really think this shows an existential crisis for the centre-right (unless the abstaining youth suddenly start voting in the future, which is a possibility). In France, Spain and Anglosaxon countries the main conservative party does terrible with young voters, but in France and Spain they are being replaced by liberal parties with a relatively young voter base that are becoming more rightist by the day (LREM, C's). I think the continental European centre-right isn't in a lot of trouble at this moment, but the Anglosaxon right seems to be in an extremely dire situation.

[Hifly]

We can't say the centre-right is in existential crisis, when in half the countries we have gone through in this thread the centre-left no longer exists as a relevant political force! Wait till the centre-right starts polling below 10/15% in any country before we start talking about existential crises.
This thread is bizarre.

[Lord Halifax]

We can't say the centre-right is in existential crisis, when in half the countries we have gone through in this thread the centre-left no longer exists as a relevant political force! Wait till the centre-right starts polling below 10/15% in any country before we start talking about existential crises.
This thread is bizarre.

The centre-left being in crisis doesn't mean that the centre-right can't be as well. You are much too focused on "the left", which isn't the subject of this thread.

[Lechasseur]

I don't really think this shows an existential crisis for the centre-right (unless the abstaining youth suddenly start voting in the future, which is a possibility). In France, Spain and Anglosaxon countries the main conservative party does terrible with young voters, but in France and Spain they are being replaced by liberal parties with a relatively young voter base that are becoming more rightist by the day (LREM, C's). I think the continental European centre-right isn't in a lot of trouble at this moment, but the Anglosaxon right seems to be in an extremely dire situation.

Agreed

[Annatar]

The difference between how young people vote in the Anglo-sphere vs Continental Europe, with the former voting more left and the latter voting more right is something I have thought about myself, does anybody have any idea as to why this gap exists, is it more that left wing parties in the UK, US, Australia etc. are better at appealing to young voters then those in continental Europe or is it that right wing parties in continental Europe are better at appealing to voters then right wing parties in the Anglo-Sphere.

[EPG]

The current mainstream centre-right is chasing its pensioner demographic who remember the USSR. There is usually an alternative centrist or CR party without hang-ups about gay marriage etc., and of course an alternative CR or right party that is anti-immigrant.

Young people also have less money. 18-25 is also a really small voter demographic in most of Europe, and many are still in education or wandering around Europe in basic jobs.

Generally once people have kids, they become much less interested in grand risky ideas to remake society as a whole, and more interested in threats to their children and family right now. It's clear how this helps mainstream CR to close the youth gap (including versus anti-immigrant parties). Not so much the PS.

[EPG]

The difference between how young people vote in the Anglo-sphere vs Continental Europe, with the former voting more left and the latter voting more right is something I have thought about myself, does anybody have any idea as to why this gap exists, is it more that left wing parties in the UK, US, Australia etc. are better at appealing to young voters then those in continental Europe or is it that right wing parties in continental Europe are better at appealing to voters then right wing parties in the Anglo-Sphere.

Just to throw out some ideas about UK/USA/Aus. Above all it's hard to ignore the forced-choice electoral system, as it encourages pursuit of big broad vote blocs who are spread across the country. It also seems to force centre-left parties closer to the centre, most of the time. The economic importance of housing equity in wealth. Immigration, making the labour supply of young people very competitive, may have economic impacts too.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[mvd10]

Big win for KorWIN, the saviour of the European Right.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Big win for KorWIN, the saviour of the European Right.

Well, I don't know if European Right deserve such saviour. I guess they are not that bad after all.

[mvd10]

Big win for KorWIN, the saviour of the European Right.

Well, I don't know if European Right deserve such saviour. I guess they are not that bad after all.

We once were blind, but now we see,
We were held in chains, but now we're free,
KorWIN 2018. 2022. 2026. 2030. 2034. 2038. KorWIN forever.

[mileslunn]

I think a more accurate statement is in Europe, the young are not voting for traditional centre-right parties, but many are voting for parties on the right that are populists and non-traditional.  In Anglosphere countries, its true the young lean heavily to the left, but seems much less the case in Continental Europe.  In fact in Eastern Europe its the opposite, younger voters tend to be more right wing than older voters.  Also for the right it depends on type too as the mainstream right wing parties in many English speaking countries are more ideological than they are in continental Europe.

[parochial boy]

Incidentally, one of the things that inspired me to start this thread was the fact that Macron did surprisingly averagely with younger voters in France - and you would have thought his "modern" image + the mass desertion of Fillon by younger voters would have benefitted him more. Instead, Mélenchon over performed massively, and Macron barely beat Le Pen.

I would be careful of generalising "Anglosphere" countries too, the UK's political environment is still more "European" in nature than it is American.

As for the "younger voters move to establishment parties as they get jobs/houses", that hasn't necessarily always been the case (see Germany), and the counter argument could run that as more and more people become "stuck" in precarious jobs and excluded from home ownership might mean they keep choosing radical options. But that is pure speculation.

Does anyone know if there has ever been much research into how people who abstain in their youth vote later on in life? Youth turnout has almost always been lower, so there are a lot of people to whom this would apply. In Switzerland, the "didn't vote last time" demographic went strongly UDC (38%), and the traditional Centre-right parties (PLR and PDC) underperformed the most, which seems reasonable as an assumption.

[EPG]

As for the "younger voters move to establishment parties as they get jobs/houses", that hasn't necessarily always been the case (see Germany), and the counter argument could run that as more and more people become "stuck" in precarious jobs and excluded from home ownership might mean they keep choosing radical options. But that is pure speculation.

etc. I quote the most interesting part to me. It's a good question about Macron. I think we have to accept that the under-25 demographic in most of continental Europe finds anti-foreigner politics very appealing.

Nothing in comparative politics is necessarily always the case, but mostly people with families and property become less radical, and older people become less radical, radical political positions are usually under-served by parties, and the parties that do serve those positions are less able to mobilise votes nationally. I wonder if any of these is particularly controversial, 90% of the time. IOW, you would expect to see radical parties and non-voters with a lot of inter-movement, if you could really observe it (Which is hard).

So, Germany is quite exceptional because they added a Communist dictatorship to their country in the middle of all these time series. I don't know if quite the same secular decline in CDU votes happened in the West.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if the young people without secure jobs or housing tenures remained radical for the duration of that period.

Double however, is that, the last phenomenon is not going to continue until they're, like, 50. This job precarity phenomenon has been going way down in European countries where the economy improved. The main problem with housing is what young person under 30 wants to live 5km outside a minor city, or 15km outside major cities, yet that's where the post-war housing is (often 1 old person with 2-3 bedrooms).

[TheSaint250]

That's so interesting: PiS + Kukiz '15 + Korwin = 64% alone.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

That's so interesting: PiS + Kukiz '15 + Korwin = 64% alone.

Their electorates do not sum up. Korwinists are equally against PiS as they are against PO, European Union and pretty much everything which is not Korwin.

[TheSaint250]

That's so interesting: PiS + Kukiz '15 + Korwin = 64% alone.

Their electorates do not sum up. Korwinists are equally against PiS as they are against PO, European Union and pretty much everything which is not Korwin.

Huh.

I assume the divide with PiS centers on intervention in economy? Is Korwin more socially libertarian?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

That's so interesting: PiS + Kukiz '15 + Korwin = 64% alone.

Their electorates do not sum up. Korwinists are equally against PiS as they are against PO, European Union and pretty much everything which is not Korwin.

Huh.

I assume the divide with PiS centers on intervention in economy? Is Korwin more socially libertarian?

No, but for them economic and European issues are more important than social issues, although they are conservative. But you must know that in Poland non-PiS (but not necessarily Korwin politicians, but ordinary members) right think that PiS are traitors of conservatism and they are the same as PO because they killed parliamentary works on citizens initiative project changing abortion law to more restrictive. To be honest story is not new because in 2007 they similar one. They are party of power so they do not want to do many controversial things at once.