If Bernie Sanders is the nominee, will he win Orange County, CA?

[Politician]

I'd say he wouldn't, but Trump is toxic there, so it would be within 5 points.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

No, I don't think that Bernie would have won Orange County, CA.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

No but Bernie wouldn’t do as badly in Orange County then many would expect him to. I would say Trump wins OC 47-43-10 in a Sanders-Trump election.

[AtorBoltox]

Yes

[cvparty]

lol orange would not go for trump he really isn’t popular there

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Of course he would win Orange County. Orange County is now a democratic county, at least in the age of Trump. 2022 would likely be a different story. It's also one of the fastest diversifying counties in America.

Bernie probably does even better in Orange County than Hillary, actually.

[I’m not Stu]

Would a Biden/Harris ticket do better in Orange County than a Sanders/Warren ticket?

[I’m not Stu]

Would a ticket with Harris be stronger in Orange County than a ticket with Warren?

[Thunder98]

It would be a toss up, OC would be decided by less than 1%. But If Harris, Garcetti, or Jerry Brown is on the ticket, then he should easily beat Trump in OC in those scenarios.

[TDAS04]

Probably against Trump. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Only if Larry Agran is his running-mate.

[Skill and Chance]

Quite possibly.  Jeremy Corbyn was proposing to nationalize entire industries over in the UK, and he won some suburban constituencies the left had never won since before WWII.  I think it would be very close either way and decided without a majority.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Would a ticket with Harris be stronger in Orange County than a ticket with Warren?

I don't know if it would make much of a difference.

In response to the thread question, I'd say that while Orange County isn't the most fitting constituency for Bernie, he'd win it against Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

There would be a lot of Third Party support in this instance. But I could still see either Sanders or Trump winning it with a small plurality.

[MT Treasurer]

Sanders, and it wouldn’t even be close.

[DrScholl]

Trump would carry it with a plurality.

[Xing]

No, unelectable socialist/communist/mens rights activist Sanders would lose just about every county in a landslide. Honestly, even D.C. would be a Toss-Up at best for him.

[I’m not Stu]

No, unelectable socialist/communist/mens rights activist Sanders would lose just about every county in a landslide. Honestly, even D.C. would be a Toss-Up at best for him.

I know you’re obviously kidding but at this point I can’t tell if people in this thread have a total misunderstanding of Orange County’s political trends or if they’re so Hellbent that Bernie Sanders would lose badly that he’d lose counties that were trending Dem before 2016 and that Hillary carried by nearly double digits.

This isn’t your grandfather’s Orange County that voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964 folks. Hillary Clinton got 102,000 more votes than Donald Trump here. Gary Johnson only recieved 46,000 and 14,000 of those voted for him in 2012 over Saint Mitt Romney who was supposedly a great fit for the county. So let’s say every one of those 32,000 Gary Johnson voters (not including the ones that’ll vote for him anyways like they did in 2012) return to Trump.

Ok so Trump’s deficit would now be 70,000 short of Hillary’s coalition. Assuming demographics won’t help the Republicans at all from 2016-2020 (and they won’t given the transition map above), where exactly is Trump suppose to win at all against Sanders here? What 70,000 voters are there that voted for Hillary Clinton and won’t vote for Sanders or even crossover to Trump?

The Democratic base in Orange County are generic liberals who’ll circle the wagons behind any Democrat even the evil socialist variety. Sanders recieved 47% of the vote in Orange County against Hillary Clinton’s 52%. The current crop of Democratic Party congressional contenders trying to oust Republicans Rohrabacher and Walters are all solid liberals - a good number of whom support programs such as Medicare for all (even Kasich primary supporter Harley Rouda supports M4A).

I’m trying to wrap my head around where Sanders loses or Trump gains enough votes in this kind of county to make it a win for Trump.

Which hypothetical celebrity Democratic ticket would do better in Orange County; the establishment Katy Perry/Christina Aguilera ticket, or the progressive insurgent Nick Hexum/Liz Phair ticket?

[RINO Tom]

Guys, Whites in OC VOTED FOR TRUMP, haha ... after four more years of demographic change, Sanders absolutely wins.

[NOVA Green]

Guys, Whites in OC VOTED FOR TRUMP, haha ... after four more years of demographic change, Sanders absolutely wins.

Well, although Demographics aren't destiny, and perhaps the 2016 Presidential General Election might have been an exception to norm, it's difficult to imagine a hypothetical 2020 Presidential General Election scenario where Trump beats Bernie in OC....

Contrary to many mainstream Media stereotypes of OC, there's a hell of alot more to the County than just heavily Anglo Beach Towns, and White folks living up in their Mansions in the Canyons....

Bernie Sanders 2020 would absolutely slaughter Trump 2020 in OC, although the exact margins might be slightly closer or significant greater than HRC > Trump Margins in '16....

Tons of folks seem to forget how well Bernie performed in the California Dem Primaries in SoCal, including heavily Latino and Asian-American communities, which account for a significant chunk of Millennial Voters not just the Anglo Millennials in OC....

Just sayin'

[I’m not Stu]

Is Orange County a more mainstream Democratic county that would vote for Feinstein/Villaraigosa, or a staunch progressive one that would vote for de Leon/Eastin?

[Politician]

Is Orange County a more mainstream Democratic county that would vote for Feinstein/Villaraigosa, or a staunch progressive one that would vote for de Leon/Eastin?

Feinstein but it'd be closer than the average county.