2020 Dems: Who will be Scott Walkered?

[Progressive]

Which candidates will appear to have a strong presence in the field and ultimately drop out due to declining support before Iowa?

[Theodore]

Kamala Harris comes to mind

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

- Merkley, if there any other progressive populists running then he has absolutely no base.

- Holder, but I could see him getting Gilmored.

- Garcetti, he has no natural base.

Maybe not "big presence in the field" type guys though.

[Politician]

John Delaney will be the Martin O'Malley of 2020. Kirsten Gillibrand seems like the most likely candidate here.

[henster]

Kamala Harris comes to mind

I doubt Harris campaigns much in IA/NH she will bet big on SC/NV and other diverse states. I think a lot of Dems will actually put off dropping out before Iowa because they'd think waiting for more diverse states would be better for them.

[PoliticalShelter]

Well Scott Walker whole selling point in the primary was that he could act as a bridge between the establishment wing and the grassroots. So the democratic equivalent would be someone like Gillibrand or Warren.

[Peanut]

Gillibrand was the first I thought of.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Gillibrand or Harris

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Biden fits the criteria most closely, quite honestly.

His base is basically the Obama base, which will be divided among several other candidates, and he's gaffe prone. I think he either wins a bunch of early primaries/caucuses or he drops out well before Iowa.

[LabourJersey]

Joe Biden.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think there's a non-zero chance it's Warren if Sanders, Gillibrand, and Harris all run. She's in a weird space where she might be a favorite of many, but her base is thoroughly cannibalized.

[twenty42]

Obama seems pretty sure that this will happen to Biden if he runs.

[gerritcole]

booker

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I honestly could see it being Booker. He is not the political talent President Obama is. If I could see anyone making a dumb gaffe early and dropping out, it's probably him.

[dw93]

Booker or Gillibrand, lean more toward the later as she's taken more seriously than Booker is.

[Sestak]

Probably Booker, except expectations are already shifting away from him and have been for like a year.

[Blair]

Walkers biggest floor was that once he started talking about policies, he fell apart. Building the wall in Canada, the PATCO strike ending the Cold War etc.

The one advantage that the Senators (Harris/Booker/Gillibrand) have is that they've been talking about a lot of issues, and have been on the national stage. Beyond his 2012 recall, Walker never faced the scrutiny of a national campaign.

The person who comes closest to mind is Biden (But I think he's likely to be the Jeb! of 2020)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cuomo, if he is stupid enough to run.

[Rhenna]

Biden seems more like a Lieberman-esque flop. I have to go with Gillibrand but nobody will exactly fall into the mold of a Walker sized flop.

[Lord Admirale]

Biden seems more like a Lieberman-esque flop. I have to go with Gillibrand but nobody will exactly fall into the mold of a Walker sized flop.

Biden has been polling well in every poll, I don't Lieberman was even taken seriously in 2004.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden seems more like a Lieberman-esque flop. I have to go with Gillibrand but nobody will exactly fall into the mold of a Walker sized flop.

Biden has been polling well in every poll, I don't Lieberman was even taken seriously in 2004.

Lieberman was leading the early primary polls in the first few months of 2003:

http://news.gallup.com/poll/8302/lieberman-leads-field-nine.aspx



But that was because he had the highest name recognition.  And even at that time, there was plenty of skepticism that his lead would endure (since he was regarded as too much of a centrist squish to actually win the nomination), and many considered Kerry the "real" frontrunner (who was then eventually overtaken by Dean, only to be re-overtaken by Kerry in Jan. 2004).

[courts]

christ now i'm nostalgic for 2003