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Author Topic: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7  (Read 2277 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: May 22, 2018, 10:40:17 am »

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Texas-Executive-Summary.pdf

Cruz 47
O'Rourke 40
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yeah_93
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2018, 10:41:12 am »

Shocking.

I expect O'Rourke to perform very well.
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2018, 10:41:19 am »

As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2018, 10:44:57 am »

Robert “Beta” O’Rourke will lose. Final prediction:

Rafaél Eduardo: 54
Beta Bob: 42
Some Dudes: 4
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2018, 10:46:52 am »

Not bad, still very competitive for a slightly right-leaning polling company.
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2018, 10:50:42 am »

Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2018, 10:57:41 am »

A final result like this is in line with my expectations, but it is slightly worrisome for him to see this coming from his personal pollster. Seems like the race should be moderately competitive.
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2018, 11:02:44 am »

Not bad, O'Rourke clearly has a good chance. Besides, this is a Cruz internal so it might be even closer.
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2018, 11:04:44 am »

JMC is not Cruz’s pollster, that’s WPA.

Still - suggests the CV is right on this race. Competitive, but Cruz is plainly the favorite.
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2018, 11:05:05 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2018, 11:05:53 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2018, 11:10:29 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2018, 11:13:22 am »

Cruz is likely not in any trouble, but it's interesting that a seven-point lead for Cruz means he's safe, but a four-point lead for McCaskill doesn't even mean that she's got 50/50 chances of holding her seat. Hmmm...
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2018, 11:19:22 am »

So why the delay in releasing this, particularly if this is Cruz's internal pollster?

Were they originally getting numbers showing it closer, so they had to poll a bit more until they got numbers showing Cruz with a somewhat decent lead?

Is that what "more fieldwork" means?

I am referring to this from a few days ago, where they said they were going to release a poll but then said, oops, need more fieldwork first...:

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« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2018, 11:40:55 am »

There’s some really goofy crosstabs - Cruz doing counterintuitively well with black people and young people, Beto doing oddly well with whites.
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2018, 11:50:24 am »

The cross tabs look weird
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« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2018, 11:53:28 am »

There’s some really goofy crosstabs - Cruz doing counterintuitively well with black people and young people, Beto doing oddly well with whites.

My thoughts as well.
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2018, 11:54:39 am »

Tossup.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2018, 11:54:45 am »

Cruz is at 58% amongst 18-35 year olds???!!!!
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2018, 11:55:49 am »

As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.
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Mondale
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« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2018, 11:56:31 am »

Who TF is Jenkins?! No way he's getting 6% of the vote
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« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2018, 11:59:24 am »

As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

46% of people barely know who Beto is and Cruz is only leading by 7. He's far from "secure", especially when his favorable ratings are 42-44.

If democrats can win in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri Montana, Indiana, etc (all places where Trump did significantly better in than in TX), it's not hard to see why an unpopular & far-right dysfunctional senator like Ted Cruz can lose if conditions get a bit worse for Republicans.

Not that I think Texas is purple or anything (I am a huge doubter in the blue TX pipedream). I actually think dems only gain 1 house seat from TX. Only reason I think there's a chance republicans can lose is Ted Cruz is a godawful incumbent. Abbott is obviously going to safely cruise to reelection. But I can definitely easily see Ted Cruz being held down to less than a 5 point victory, especially when democrats are coming close to winning places like AZ-08 (a suburban district that voted +20 for every Republican in the past 50 years).
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2018, 12:00:46 pm »

A 7-point lead means Cruz is “Safe”, but a 4-point lead for McCaskill means she’s doomed?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2018, 12:01:51 pm »

Cruz at -2 favorability, O'Rourke at +15.

yeah an O'Rourke win is definitely possible.
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2018, 12:04:38 pm »

A 7-point lead means Cruz is “Safe”, but a 4-point lead for McCaskill means she’s doomed?

And this is from the pollster that never had Roy Moore below a 5 point lead.

Spoiler alert: Moore lost by 1.7
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