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Author Topic: TX-SEN JMC: Cruz +7  (Read 2310 times)
DTC
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Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

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« on: May 22, 2018, 11:59:24 am »

As expected, Cruz's reelection is secure.

46% of people barely know who Beto is and Cruz is only leading by 7. He's far from "secure", especially when his favorable ratings are 42-44.

If democrats can win in places like North Dakota, West Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri Montana, Indiana, etc (all places where Trump did significantly better in than in TX), it's not hard to see why an unpopular & far-right dysfunctional senator like Ted Cruz can lose if conditions get a bit worse for Republicans.

Not that I think Texas is purple or anything (I am a huge doubter in the blue TX pipedream). I actually think dems only gain 1 house seat from TX. Only reason I think there's a chance republicans can lose is Ted Cruz is a godawful incumbent. Abbott is obviously going to safely cruise to reelection. But I can definitely easily see Ted Cruz being held down to less than a 5 point victory, especially when democrats are coming close to winning places like AZ-08 (a suburban district that voted +20 for every Republican in the past 50 years).
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DTC
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,012


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2018, 12:04:38 pm »

A 7-point lead means Cruz is “Safe”, but a 4-point lead for McCaskill means she’s doomed?

And this is from the pollster that never had Roy Moore below a 5 point lead.

Spoiler alert: Moore lost by 1.7
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