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  Missouri-Gravis Marketing Hawley Leads 50-43 in Peterson (R) Internal
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Author Topic: Missouri-Gravis Marketing Hawley Leads 50-43 in Peterson (R) Internal  (Read 2363 times)
mds32
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« on: May 22, 2018, 10:34:16 pm »

Missouri
Senate

Hawley (R) 50%
McCaskill (D) 43%

Peterson (R) 56%
McCaskill (D) 40%

https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/05/22/missouri-gop-senate-candidate-touts-polling-republican-josh-hawley-against-sen-claire-mccaskill/633366002/
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2018, 10:39:01 pm »

“Peterson internal”
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2018, 11:26:35 pm »
« Edited: May 23, 2018, 08:59:02 am by Brittain33 »

This polls shows encouraging results for Petersen. As a Republican, I am happy.
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Deeply Disturbing
jk2020
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2018, 11:27:53 pm »

Well Austin, you tried.
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Pollster
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2018, 11:42:08 pm »

Quote
Petersen's campaign said this is the first poll it conducted and that it paid $2,000 to Gravis.

The quality of the poll is evident from the price tag.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2018, 12:01:43 am »

Dominating victory for Petersen.

This without a doubt! (Do I really have to /s?)
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2018, 12:08:39 am »

The Hawley numbers are somewhat believable, but sorry Petersen, you would not Blanche McCaskill. LOL.
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POL_Itician
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2018, 06:19:24 am »

Quote
Petersen's campaign said this is the first poll it conducted and that it paid $2,000 to Gravis.

The quality of the poll is evident from the price tag.
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POL_Itician
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2018, 06:19:52 am »

The Hawley numbers are somewhat believable, but sorry Petersen, you would not Blanche McCaskill. LOL.
If the poll showed McCaskill up by double digits you'd say "OH it can't be true McCaskill will get blanched"
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Michael Bennet is Inevitable
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2018, 08:05:46 am »

LOL
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cvparty
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2018, 09:13:41 am »

oMg SAFe R
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2018, 09:33:35 am »

Junk poll, like almost all internals.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2018, 10:27:00 am »

The Hawley numbers are somewhat believable, but sorry Petersen, you would not Blanche McCaskill. LOL.
If the poll showed McCaskill up by double digits you'd say "OH it can't be true McCaskill will get blanched"
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2018, 10:44:40 am »

LOL
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2018, 10:53:19 am »

LOL
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Skunk
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2018, 12:00:18 pm »

Probably tapped into all the undecided furries. Wink
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heatcharger
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2018, 12:03:00 pm »

Why hasn't mds32 been stripped of database entry? Disgusting that this poll was entered. We're supposed to be better than (R)CP.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2018, 12:07:18 pm »

Gravis is roughly as bad a pollster as PPP (as much as Atlas denied that fact), but that’s not even the worst thing about this poll. The worst thing about this poll is the release bias. Who knows how many surveys Peterson commissioned at 2k a crack before getting something he wanted to release. I would assume that this poll is at least two standard deviations above the mean.
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Pollster
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« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2018, 12:09:18 pm »

Looking more closely at this: it was conducted in one (1) day yet has a sample size that would normally take 3-4 days under Gravis' methodology. My guess is this is a much smaller sample (probably somewhere between 180-200) heavily weighted to appear larger. This is not uncommon for internal polling conducted solely to generate fundraising/media.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2018, 12:11:00 pm »

Gravis is roughly as bad a pollster as PPP (as much as Atlas denied that fact), but that’s not even the worst thing about this poll. The worst thing about this poll is the release bias. Who knows how many surveys Peterson commissioned at 2k a crack before getting something he wanted to release. I would assume that this poll is at least two standard deviations above the mean.

You know you may be onto something
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brand_allen
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« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2018, 03:36:09 pm »

So apparently Gravis has released extra information from this poll a couple of days after it's initial release.

They peg Trump's job approval rating...in Missouri...at near 70% (68/31%).

They peg scandal-ridden governor Eric Greitens with a positive 55/39% job approval rating.

Again, this from the same pollster that found Trump with a higher fav rating in California (47/51%) than in Indiana (44/51%).
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brand_allen
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« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2018, 03:36:36 pm »

Here's the link (since I can finally post them): https://www.austinpetersen.com/gravis_poll
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Pollster
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« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2018, 04:22:38 pm »

They peg Trump's job approval rating...in Missouri...at near 70% (68/31%).

Obviously this poll is a methodological disaster and therefore useless, but to put this in perspective: they have McCaskill trailing Hawley by single digits among a sample where Trump is +37.
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brand_allen
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« Reply #23 on: May 25, 2018, 06:20:59 pm »

They peg Trump's job approval rating...in Missouri...at near 70% (68/31%).

Obviously this poll is a methodological disaster and therefore useless, but to put this in perspective: they have McCaskill trailing Hawley by single digits among a sample where Trump is +37.

Gov. Greitens job approval rating in polling conducted this year:

Morning Consult, 1/1-3/31, 40/39%, Net: +1
Mason Dixon, 4/4-5, 41/47%, Net: -6
TJP Strategies, 4/19-20, 37/51%, Net: -14
Emerson College, 4/26-29, 33/46%, Net: -13
TJP Strategies, 5/9-10, 34/53%, Net: -19

Gravis Marketing: 5/16-16, 55/39%, Net: +16

Which one of these is not like the other ones? Plus, the news surrounding the scandal has worsened for him, not improved. Really, I'm surprised Gravis even released these numbers. They've had some questionable survey results over the years, but the last few polls they've put out have been preposterous. This sort of stuff causes legit reputational damage.
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Lok
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« Reply #24 on: May 25, 2018, 07:32:16 pm »

Ok, can we have this poll removed from the average and strip mds of the ability to input polling data?
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