CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[IceSpear]

Rohrabacher's percentage has been creeping downward.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up below 30%.

Clearly the performance of a strong incumbent. Toss up!

[Tintrlvr]

NY-09 -

NY Times endorses Adem Bunkeddeko in the Democratic primary against incumbent Yvette Clarke

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/06/14/opinion/adem-bunkeddeko-in-the-ninth-district.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Does Bunkeddeko actually have a chance?

This is my district, and I will say no simply on the basis that there is no evidence at all of an upcoming primary election here, which makes me assume voters will go with the name who has been on the ballot before.

On the other hand, I do live in a relatively unrepresentative part of the district way on the northwestern edge (much whiter and wealthier than the district as a whole), so it could be that the primary has heated up in Crown Heights and East Flatbush and I wouldn't really know it. I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign is focusing on the Caribbean and African immigrant communities in those areas.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I just finished casting a vote during an early voting period.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

[gf20202]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

This was the first day apparently that they were mainly counting provisional ballots after several days of counting mail ballots that came in late or were taken to the polls directly. Keirstead added 919. Rouda added 1,140. Head to head, Harley beat Hans by nearly 11% and by five percent in the vote totals for all four. There 36,500 provisional ballots left to count in Orange County, meaning something like 8k to 13k in this race. Rouda is in excellent position and could take the lead when counting resumes Monday if this keeps up.

[Gass3268]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How many more votes left to count statewide?

[Gass3268]

How many more votes left to count statewide?

Not sure on the exact number as this report is still out of date, but I would guess around 1 million.

[Tintrlvr]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

[Gass3268]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

Problem is you have to add them up yourself, here's what they have so far (I'll also put the remaining votes to count in parentheses):

Butte
27,197 (50.41%) - 25,860 (47.93%) (1,034)

Fresno
64,452 (49.55%) - 64,241 (49.39%) (3,200)

Nevada
19,126 (54.04%) - 15,550 (43.93%) (15,059)

Orange
288,397 (49.48%) - 288,331 (49.47%) (45,499)

Riverside
164,255 (51.03%) - 154,556 (48.01%( (32,239)

San Bernardino
126,555 (50.47%) - 121,330% (48.39% (28,960)

Trinity
2,121 (51.83%) - 1,828 (44.67%) (2,582)

[Tintrlvr]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

Problem is you have to add them up yourself, here's what they have so far (I'll also put the remaining votes to count in parentheses):

Butte
27,197 (50.41%) - 25,860 (47.93%) (1,034)

Fresno
64,452 (49.55%) - 64,241 (49.39%) (3,200)

Nevada
19,126 (54.04%) - 15,550 (43.93%) (15,059)

Orange
288,397 (49.48%) - 288,331 (49.47%) (45,499)

Riverside
164,255 (51.03%) - 154,556 (48.01%( (32,239)

San Bernardino
126,555 (50.47%) - 121,330% (48.39% (28,960)

Trinity
2,121 (51.83%) - 1,828 (44.67%) (2,582)

Thanks!

Assuming all the remaining ballots are provisionals (and thus heavily D), seems likely that Fresno flips along with Orange, and maybe a chance for San Bernardino to flip, too. Surprising to see OC more Democratic than San Bernardino but I guess there were no competitive House races in SB.

Trinity I guess hasn't counted any late ballots yet? That's a lot of ballots still outstanding relative to votes counted.

Do you have data for Lake County? (Was the 2016 Presidential result a weird fluke or part of a trend?)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

No surprise that Santa Barbara County is very similar to the state results.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow so 48 provisionals have been counted today and all that’s left is one more dump tomorrow. I think Rouda might not have this https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1008558916739969024

[gf20202]

Wow so 48 provisionals have been counted today and all that’s left is one more dump tomorrow. I think Rouda might not have this https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1008558916739969024

Rouda's inevitability was based on assuming that between a 1/4 and 1/3 of the remaining OC vote was in this race but it makes a ton of sense that they would just count the CA48 first.

Redistrict then went in to chime in with this after the link you tweeted:
"To clarify, source says about 80% of the ~4.5k outstanding in #CA48 are provisionals (which favor Rouda) and 20% are vote by mail (which favor Keirstead). Rouda still favored but not by much."

The votes Redistrict is referring to were actually counted Saturday and included in that update, not today. Redistrict only got around to tweeting about it today. If his source is correct, it will indeed be super tight with tomorrow being decisive.

Assuming the 4500 votes come in at the exact proportion/percentage to the Saturday votes (a big but seemingly fair assumption,) Rouda would add 815 votes and Keirstead would add 657. That's a net of 158, with Rouda overcoming the current deficit of 114 by a mere 44 votes. It could go either way, but Rouda still seems like the favorite given the large percentage of the 4.5k being from election day which Rouda has won decisively thus far.

Just hope it somehow doesn't end up a crazy tie. 5 pm pst Tomorrow at ocvote.com will be bannanas.

[Gass3268]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

Problem is you have to add them up yourself, here's what they have so far (I'll also put the remaining votes to count in parentheses):

Butte
27,197 (50.41%) - 25,860 (47.93%) (1,034)

Fresno
64,452 (49.55%) - 64,241 (49.39%) (3,200)

Nevada
19,126 (54.04%) - 15,550 (43.93%) (15,059)

Orange
288,397 (49.48%) - 288,331 (49.47%) (45,499)

Riverside
164,255 (51.03%) - 154,556 (48.01%( (32,239)

San Bernardino
126,555 (50.47%) - 121,330% (48.39% (28,960)

Trinity
2,121 (51.83%) - 1,828 (44.67%) (2,582)

Thanks!

Assuming all the remaining ballots are provisionals (and thus heavily D), seems likely that Fresno flips along with Orange, and maybe a chance for San Bernardino to flip, too. Surprising to see OC more Democratic than San Bernardino but I guess there were no competitive House races in SB.

Trinity I guess hasn't counted any late ballots yet? That's a lot of ballots still outstanding relative to votes counted.

Do you have data for Lake County? (Was the 2016 Presidential result a weird fluke or part of a trend?)

Lake
4,214 (55.14%) - 3,280 (42.92%) (6,037)

[nerd73]

My reaction if this becomes an exact tie.

Remember the good old days when a court and a hat caused the GOP to retain their majority in the Virginia HoD?

[Tintrlvr]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

Problem is you have to add them up yourself, here's what they have so far (I'll also put the remaining votes to count in parentheses):

Butte
27,197 (50.41%) - 25,860 (47.93%) (1,034)

Fresno
64,452 (49.55%) - 64,241 (49.39%) (3,200)

Nevada
19,126 (54.04%) - 15,550 (43.93%) (15,059)

Orange
288,397 (49.48%) - 288,331 (49.47%) (45,499)

Riverside
164,255 (51.03%) - 154,556 (48.01%( (32,239)

San Bernardino
126,555 (50.47%) - 121,330% (48.39% (28,960)

Trinity
2,121 (51.83%) - 1,828 (44.67%) (2,582)

Thanks!

Assuming all the remaining ballots are provisionals (and thus heavily D), seems likely that Fresno flips along with Orange, and maybe a chance for San Bernardino to flip, too. Surprising to see OC more Democratic than San Bernardino but I guess there were no competitive House races in SB.

Trinity I guess hasn't counted any late ballots yet? That's a lot of ballots still outstanding relative to votes counted.

Do you have data for Lake County? (Was the 2016 Presidential result a weird fluke or part of a trend?)

Lake
4,214 (55.14%) - 3,280 (42.92%) (6,037)

Thanks! 2016 was a weird fluke, I guess. Just lots of Trump Democrats on the shores of Clear Lake. Not where one would expect Trump Democrats to be concentrated.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rouda now in second place by 40 votes.  I don't know how much is left, if any.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,013   30.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,124   15.8%

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dave called it

[gf20202]

Assuming the 4500 votes come in at the exact proportion/percentage to the Saturday votes (a big but seemingly fair assumption,) Rouda would add 815 votes and Keirstead would add 657. That's a net of 158, with Rouda overcoming the current deficit of 114 by a mere 44 votes. It could go either way, but Rouda still seems like the favorite given the large percentage of the 4.5k being from election day which Rouda has won decisively thus far.

And the crucial update that just came in from ocvote.com....

HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%

40 votes lead by Harley! Not far off my estimate!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YES!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Assuming the 4500 votes come in at the exact proportion/percentage to the Saturday votes (a big but seemingly fair assumption,) Rouda would add 815 votes and Keirstead would add 657. That's a net of 158, with Rouda overcoming the current deficit of 114 by a mere 44 votes. It could go either way, but Rouda still seems like the favorite given the large percentage of the 4.5k being from election day which Rouda has won decisively thus far.

And the crucial update that just came in from ocvote.com....

HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%

40 votes lead by Harley! Not far off my estimate!

Well done!

[Ebsy]

As was foretold.

[gf20202]

In CA-48, top 16 vote-getters received a total of 2196 votes in the new update where as Redistrict expected it to be around 4,500 votes counted. There could have been write-in or blank voters, as well as some provisional votes not accepted to cover some of that discrepenacy. But it's possible there are some remaining provisional votes left.

A OC Register reporter tweeted that it should be finalized either way tomorrow:

@JordanSGraham:
@HarleyRouda has taken the lead in #CA48 & now leads by 40 votes after trailing Keirstead for 2 weeks since Election Day. Keirstead did better in mail-in ballots, but so far Rouda is winning provisionals. Final results should come tomorrow. Winner faces Rohrabacher in Nov.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any particular reason to prefer Rouda over Keirstead (or vice versa)? They look pretty interchangeable to me, tbh.