CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Virginiá]

Is there any particular reason to prefer Rouda over Keirstead (or vice versa)? They look pretty interchangeable to me, tbh.

Keirstead did have that issue where apparently he was accused of sleeping with (graduate) students, but apparently he was cleared of that (at least as much as you're willing to trust a university investigation I guess?). Either way, it's something of a liability.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any particular reason to prefer Rouda over Keirstead (or vice versa)? They look pretty interchangeable to me, tbh.

Keirstead did have that issue where apparently he was accused of sleeping with (graduate) students, but apparently he was cleared of that (at least as much as you're willing to trust a university investigation I guess?). Either way, it's something of a liability.

...it definitely is, yeah. And I can't say I have that much trust in internal university investigations. Glad Rouda will (likely) make it then.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any particular reason to prefer Rouda over Keirstead (or vice versa)? They look pretty interchangeable to me, tbh.

Keirstead did have that issue where apparently he was accused of sleeping with (graduate) students, but apparently he was cleared of that (at least as much as you're willing to trust a university investigation I guess?). Either way, it's something of a liability.

He also punched a student in the face iirc

[gf20202]

Via @allymutnick, we have hit the finale:
"@OCRegistrar expected to finish counting outstanding #CA48 ballots Tuesday & will release at 8PM ET. Per Orange County source: less than 1000 ballots remain & over half are provisionals, which have favored @HarleyRouda (D)."

Very daunting math for Keirstead given how few votes are left. A 40/41 vote swing the other way would involve Kierstead beating Rouda by at least 14% in votes between the two of them. More likely that Rouda nets an additional 60-70 votes.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

[I’m not Stu]

Who wins the SC gubernatorial GOP runoff?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who wins the SC gubernatorial GOP runoff?

Probably McMaster

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who wins the SC gubernatorial GOP runoff?

Probably McMaster

Agree, but this is the wrong thread.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who wins the SC gubernatorial GOP runoff?

Probably McMaster

Agree, but this is the wrong thread.

No one cares about wrong thread/right thread nonsense.

[Gass3268]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

[Gass3268]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Really? Wouldn't $15/hour still amount to a lot more than what they get now including tips?

[Babeuf]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Based on what I have read about this, I don't think that's true.

From: https://www.vox.com/2018/6/19/17474932/tipped-minimum-wage-impact-dc-initiative-77

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As far as I can tell waiters in those 7 states still get their tips.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Really? Wouldn't $15/hour still amount to a lot more than what they get now including tips?

In the general case, yes, but a lower wage + tipped earnings can and occasionally does exceed a $15/hr avg and effectively rewards good work and punishes bad. Under the proposed amendment, every worker, from the best to the worst, would get $15/hr, no more (unless the employer is feeling generous) and no less.

[Gass3268]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Based on what I have read about this, I don't think that's true.

From: https://www.vox.com/2018/6/19/17474932/tipped-minimum-wage-impact-dc-initiative-77

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As far as I can tell waiters in those 7 states still get their tips.

They probably have that in law that they get to keep their tips.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Really? Wouldn't $15/hour still amount to a lot more than what they get now including tips?

In the general case, yes, but a lower wage + tipped earnings can and occasionally does exceed a $15/hr avg and effectively rewards good work and punishes bad. Under the proposed amendment, every worker, from the best to the worst, would get $15/hr, no more (unless the employer is feeling generous) and no less.

So increased average wages + not being at the mercy of demanding rich customers? I call that a win-win.

[Babeuf]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Based on what I have read about this, I don't think that's true.

From: https://www.vox.com/2018/6/19/17474932/tipped-minimum-wage-impact-dc-initiative-77

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As far as I can tell waiters in those 7 states still get their tips.

They probably have that in law that they get to keep their tips.

IMO that suggests that the DC Council will implement the same policy as the existing states with this system then. But I guess it depends on how they implement the system. I can't imagine a Democratic local government allowing the restaurants to keep the tips.

[heatcharger]

The wages that tipped workers is, obviously, not static and can change on any given night.

Important to note that in DC, the minimum tipped base wage is set to rise to $5 from $3.33 by 2020 alongside the $15 minimum wage increase. That’s probably a factor into why workers might oppose scrapping it. Plus, as uh, Wulfric mentioned, good waiters, bartenders, etc. have come to expect that they earn more than those who aren’t as good at their job.

[IceSpear]

Rouda now in second place by 40 votes.  I don't know how much is left, if any.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,013   30.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,124   15.8%

Any chance Baugh wins all the remaining votes and causes a #DemLockout?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rouda now in second place by 40 votes.  I don't know how much is left, if any.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,013   30.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,124   15.8%

Any chance Baugh wins all the remaining votes and causes a #DemLockout?

Even if he did win all remaining votes, that wouldn't be enough.

[IceSpear]

Rouda now in second place by 40 votes.  I don't know how much is left, if any.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,013   30.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,124   15.8%

Any chance Baugh wins all the remaining votes and causes a #DemLockout?

Even if he did win all remaining votes, that wouldn't be enough.

Sarcasm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,520   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,873   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,804   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,412   15.8%

Rouda by 69.

[ajc0918]

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,520   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,873   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,804   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,412   15.8%

Rouda by 69.

Nice

[gf20202]

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,520   30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,873   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,804   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,412   15.8%

Rouda by 69.

Nice

Doesn't seem like Keirstead will ask and pay for a recount from their shared rhetoric since election day. so this may be officially over and certified next week.