CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA
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  CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA
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Author Topic: CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA  (Read 104446 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1625 on: June 25, 2018, 06:06:53 PM »

I agree that RCV would be a superior system, and I hope California eventually gets there, but in the meantime, I maintain that it's better than reverting to the default of FPP. What parties need to do is ramp up their efforts to coordinate with candidates and impose some discipline on the races. 2018 is, if anything, a testament to the fact that the Democratic party is capable of doing just that. Sure, it didn't go perfectly, but I bet it will only get better at it from there. So things are more or less working themselves out as they should, and there's no need to complain so much about the system.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #1626 on: June 25, 2018, 06:24:37 PM »

Please tell me that there was not an exact tie for 2nd in CA-48.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1627 on: June 25, 2018, 06:27:05 PM »

Please tell me that there was not an exact tie for 2nd in CA-48.
Yes Hans conceded to Rouda
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1628 on: June 25, 2018, 06:27:20 PM »

Please tell me that there was not an exact tie for 2nd in CA-48.

Rouda won 2nd by 126 votes.
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136or142
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« Reply #1629 on: June 25, 2018, 06:55:47 PM »

This, actually to me, is why this district isn't that big of a deal.  I'd be surprised (and disappointed) if Rohrabacher was reelected (I like to think there are a lot of Republicans who are at  least anti Putin)  and, while I appreciate that every seat counts, I think it will be difficult for the Democrats to hold this seat in 2020, yet alone 2022.

In 2020 Trump will (probably?) be on the ballot again. In 2022 it won't be the same seat because of redistricting, but yes it will be harder to hold then if there is a D President.

I don't know that Trump is the problem for the Republicans in this district as much as Rohrabacher himself is.
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136or142
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« Reply #1630 on: June 25, 2018, 07:11:55 PM »

This is just one seat, and it was easily the worst-case scenario for Dems (two equally popular candidates splitting the vote almost evenly) and they still made it pretty comfortably. 1.5 points might not seem like a lot, but in this day and age there are few things in a campaign that move the needle by as much. And again, it's just one seat where this was even a possibility. Compare this to the media narrative that suggested Dems were probably about to get shut out everywhere (including in CA-49 where they took the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots)... Roll Eyes

It is hard to move the needle when each candidate has consolidated support in a general election, but we're talking about races where each candidate was only pulling in like 15, 16, 17 points or so, with an incredible number of candidates. It could have easily gone one way or another, and with Republicans only trailing by <4 points in at least 3 races, I really have to disagree that lockouts were not a real concern in those districts. I don't know if all the hype it got was warranted, but it's not like CA-10, CA-39 and CA-48 did not have close races that could have a different way under slightly different circumstances.

In terms of two candidate preferred, California 10 ended up as a comfortable win for the Democrats (around 55-45% 17,500-14,500) while California 39 was a blow out.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1631 on: June 25, 2018, 07:14:40 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 07:24:34 PM by 136or142 »

This, actually to me, is why this district isn't that big of a deal.  I'd be surprised (and disappointed) if Rohrabacher was reelected (I like to think there are a lot of Republicans who are at  least anti Putin)  and, while I appreciate that every seat counts, I think  it will be difficult for the Democrats to hold this seat in 2020, yet alone 2022.

In 2020 Trump will (probably?) be on the ballot again. In 2022 it won't be the same seat because of redistricting, but yes it will be harder to hold then if there is a D President.

Actually you give me a good reason to not support Rohrabacher.  He is too pro Putin.  

But then the main reason I support Trump is that in action he is the most anti Russian President since Reagan.  Obama in action was the most pro.  I do not care what they say.  I care how they act.  If Trump had carried on Obama’s actual Russian policies I would become anti Trump.

The only thing I can imagine that you might be referring to is that Trump agreed to sell arms to Ukraine.  While Trump did sign an anti Putin/Russian sanctions bill, he has not implemented it or enforced it.

Of course, I don't know if any weapons have actually be sold to Ukraine.  We see that Trump clearly has made a habit of saying he'll do something and then doesn't do it (while leaving his idiot cultist supporters to believe that he has.)
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #1632 on: June 25, 2018, 07:23:08 PM »

Steve Knight is in big doo doo in his even PVI district. He faces Katie Hill. State Senator Janet Nguyen received a large majority in the primary of her D+6 district, even winning Democratic stronghold Long Beach with a significant majority. Nguyen is probably not vulnerable and is favored to beat Tom Umberg.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1633 on: June 25, 2018, 07:31:24 PM »

In terms of two candidate preferred, California 10 ended up as a comfortable win for the Democrats (around 55-45% 17,500-14,500) while California 39 was a blow out.

what do you mean by "two candidate preferred" and where are you getting those numbers?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1634 on: June 25, 2018, 07:38:05 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?
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136or142
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« Reply #1635 on: June 25, 2018, 07:39:49 PM »

In terms of two candidate preferred, California 10 ended up as a comfortable win for the Democrats (around 55-45% 17,500-14,500) while California 39 was a blow out.

what do you mean by "two candidate preferred" and where are you getting those numbers?

Hrm, they must have counted a lot more votes since I last checked.

Rather than looking at all the votes for all the candidates, 'two candidate preferred' means only the candidates in question are looked at (so the Democrat who came in second and the leading Republican.) So this:

Josh Harder: 20,010, 54.2%
Ted Howze: 16,902, 45.8%

https://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/10
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136or142
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« Reply #1636 on: June 25, 2018, 07:43:10 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

Would you settle for raw oranges? Smiley
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1637 on: June 25, 2018, 07:44:27 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1638 on: June 25, 2018, 07:45:12 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.

Ok, but does anyone have information that could answer my question?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1639 on: June 25, 2018, 07:53:16 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.

Ok, but does anyone have information that could answer my question?

For the whole county or just CA-48?  For CA-48, this is what I get based on the most recent update from the county.  This is the number of votes cast for candidates of each party.

R   92,309   53.0%
D   80,061   46.0%
L   964   0.6%
None   690   0.4%
Total   174,024   100.0%
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1640 on: June 25, 2018, 07:56:25 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.

Ok, but does anyone have information that could answer my question?

For the whole county or just CA-48?  For CA-48, this is what I get based on the most recent update from the county.  This is the number of votes cast for candidates of each party.

R   92,309   53.0%
D   80,061   46.0%
L   964   0.6%
None   690   0.4%
Total   174,024   100.0%


Th whole county.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1641 on: June 25, 2018, 08:03:36 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.

Ok, but does anyone have information that could answer my question?

For the whole county or just CA-48?  For CA-48, this is what I get based on the most recent update from the county.  This is the number of votes cast for candidates of each party.

R   92,309   53.0%
D   80,061   46.0%
L   964   0.6%
None   690   0.4%
Total   174,024   100.0%


Th whole county.

Using the governor's race (on the assumption that it was the statewide race with the most attention in OC) I get the following totals for candidates by party:

D   308,533   49.7%
R   305,455   49.2%
L   2,183   0.4%
G   1,562   0.3%
P   1,057   0.2%
None   2022   0.3%
Total   620,812   100.0%
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1642 on: June 25, 2018, 08:05:24 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.

Ok, but does anyone have information that could answer my question?

For the whole county or just CA-48?  For CA-48, this is what I get based on the most recent update from the county.  This is the number of votes cast for candidates of each party.

R   92,309   53.0%
D   80,061   46.0%
L   964   0.6%
None   690   0.4%
Total   174,024   100.0%


Th whole county.

Using the governor's race (on the assumption that it was the statewide race with the most attention in OC) I get the following totals for candidates by party:

D   308,533   49.7%
R   305,455   49.2%
L   2,183   0.4%
G   1,562   0.3%
P   1,057   0.2%
None   2022   0.3%
Total   620,812   100.0%


Thank you!
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1643 on: June 25, 2018, 08:12:54 PM »

Does anyone have a raw vote total for Orange County? The number of Dems/Reps that cast votes?

I know dems cast more votes than reps, they pulled ahead last week.

Ok, but does anyone have information that could answer my question?

For the whole county or just CA-48?  For CA-48, this is what I get based on the most recent update from the county.  This is the number of votes cast for candidates of each party.

R   92,309   53.0%
D   80,061   46.0%
L   964   0.6%
None   690   0.4%
Total   174,024   100.0%


Th whole county.

Using the governor's race (on the assumption that it was the statewide race with the most attention in OC) I get the following totals for candidates by party:

D   308,533   49.7%
R   305,455   49.2%
L   2,183   0.4%
G   1,562   0.3%
P   1,057   0.2%
None   2022   0.3%
Total   620,812   100.0%


On the congressional races, for D and R, I got:

D     284,982
R     306,082
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #1644 on: June 25, 2018, 08:28:41 PM »

Who wins AL-02 GOP runoff, Roby or Bright?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1645 on: June 25, 2018, 08:59:49 PM »

Who wins AL-02 GOP runoff, Roby or Bright?

It's not for several weeks, so no clue.
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Cold War Liberal
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« Reply #1646 on: June 26, 2018, 10:39:41 AM »

I'm an election judge for the MD primary (on lunch break). Democrats have a lead in this rather Republican part of Harford county - a lead that's held (and sometimes expanded) all day.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #1647 on: June 26, 2018, 10:50:18 AM »

Romney wins the primary by a  40% margin
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1648 on: June 26, 2018, 10:57:27 AM »

I was the only person in my polling station this morning in NY-09. Voted for Adem Bunkedekko but still think he has no chance. My polling station is split across CDs, though, with the voting location actually in NY-08, so at least half the voters had no contest to vote in because I think Hakeem Jeffries is unopposed in the primary.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1649 on: June 26, 2018, 11:18:26 AM »

I'm working at a polling place in Montgomery county Maryland, we have had a brisk turnout so far today, especially considering this is before work ends in DC. Not many Republicans, but that is to be expected in this type of county when Hogan runs unopposed.
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