CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Doimper]

Good riddance to Sanford.

Sanford was horrible, but at least he was an understandable and ideologically consistent sort of horrible. The Trump cultist he's being replaced by isn't.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - FINISHING UP SC:

Attorney General
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Alan Wilson*
163,254   48.6%
Todd Atwater
99,947   29.8   
William Herlong
72,583   21.6   
335,784 votes, 99% reporting (2,239 of 2,265 precincts)

U.S. House District 4 »

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Doris Turner
6,831   29.4%   
Brandon Brown
6,608   28.4   
Eric Graben
6,014   25.9   
Will Morin
2,112   9.1   
JT Davis
1,666   7.2   
23,231 votes, 100% reporting (231 of 231 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Lee Bright
16,085   25.0%   
William Timmons
12,310   19.2   
Dan Hamilton
11,960   18.6   
Josh Kimbrell
7,118   11.1   
James Epley
5,158   8.0   
Stephen Brown
4,899   7.6   
Shannon Pierce
2,375   3.7   
Mark Burns
1,566   2.4   
Claude Schmid
1,333   2.1   
Dan Albert
494   0.8   
John Mosser
441   0.7   
Justin Sanders
339   0.5   
Barry Bell
195   0.3   
64,273 votes, 100% reporting (231 of 231 precincts)

[136or142]

Good riddance to Sanford.

I always had a soft spot for Sanford. This makes him more interesting:

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1006749521953648642

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - NV:

District 3
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Danny Tarkanian
9,343   42.8%   
Michelle Mortensen
5,591   25.6   
Scott Hammond
3,592   16.5   
David McKeon
1,141   5.2   
Annette Teijeiro
803   3.7   
Patrick Carter
633   2.9   
Stephanie Jones
282   1.3   
Eddie Hamilton
228   1.0   
Thomas La Croix
217   1.0   
21,830 votes, 56% reporting (236 of 424 precincts)

District 4
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Cresent Hardy
9,686   46.3%   
David Gibbs
4,162   19.9   
Kenneth Wegner
2,394   11.4   
Bill Townsend
2,356   11.3   
Jeff Miller
1,718   8.2   
Mike Monroe
625   3.0   
20,941 votes, 43% reporting (207 of 482 precincts)

[BBD]

Wonder how many people intended to vote the opposite of how they actually voted as a result of the wording of the ranked choice ballot question.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[YE]

2014 basically had no Democratic governor primary and Dem turnout was historically bad in both the primary and GE. 2010 would be a better comparison here.

Oh, fair point. How does it compare to 2010?

Comparing raw votes in governors primaries, Dem total is 127% of 2010 total while GOP is 81% of 2010 total. But to be fair, 2010 had no competitive Dem races either.

[Classic Conservative]

Personally, I think Arrington might’ve been a stronger candidate than Sanford. Arrington was backed by a lot of the local establishment.

[136or142]

Golden back below 50%.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Wonder how many people intended to vote the opposite of how they actually voted as a result of the wording of the ranked choice ballot question.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Nah, clear as mud!    I mean I don't actually have a clue what this is saying but it sounds kinda nice,,,,
maybe??

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Going to release an update to my Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map at this point. In North Dakota, Republicans attracted 65% of the primary vote, which may be a bit of a concern for Heitkamp, although her primary was uncontested as was the ND-1 D primary.

In Virginia, unfortunately Tim Kaine did not appear on the primary ballot today, so we have to get creative. In their contested house primaries, Democrats attracted 186,570 votes in total. Republicans attracted 108,025 votes in total. I believe this to be the most fair calculation, and it comes out to 63% of the primary vote going to Democrats.

I will include figures for Nevada and Maine once more of the result has come in.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Shame on dems in SC 5th. Go Ralph Norman!

[Adam Griffin]

Golden 49.995%
St Clair 40.290%

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden 49.995%
St Clair 40.290%

Golden could end up at 49.999% of th vote with 100% of precincts and half of Atlas would still act like St. Clair could win

He would literally need less than one percent of Olson's votes. He's won. St. Clair's all but conceded.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A good day to be a Down East Democrat! Onwards to November!

[Adam Griffin]

Going to release an update to my Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map at this point. In North Dakota, Republicans attracted 65% of the primary vote, which may be a bit of a concern for Heitkamp, although her primary was uncontested as was the ND-1 D primary.

In Virginia, unfortunately Tim Kaine did not appear on the primary ballot today, so we have to get creative. In their contested house primaries, Democrats attracted 186,570 votes in total. Republicans attracted 108,025 votes in total. I believe this to be the most fair calculation, and it comes out to 63% of the primary vote going to Democrats.

I will include figures for Nevada and Maine once more of the result has come in.

Not sure I'd agree with this method; very rudimentary and too exclusionary.

What I'm likely going to do for my county primary project map (at least for the state as a whole) is use 2016 figures to proportion the share of the Democratic and Republican electorates in these districts. For the GOP, we can take the statewide turnout at face value, obviously, but for the Democrats, we can proportion these districts' shares of the 2016 statewide Democratic electorate for a more reflective result.

CDs 1, 2, 6, 7, 9 & 10 combined were 45.4% of Hillary Clinton's vote share in 2016 (and 65.6% of Trump's). From the figures we do have available for those Democratic primaries tonight (185,614 votes), we can adjust:

(Adjusted) Virginia 2018 Primary Electorate:
DEM: 409,201 (57.3%)
GOP: 304,435 (42.7%)

It of course and unfortunately does assume equal enthusiasm between the two groupings of CDs had elections for Democrats occurred everywhere, but I believe this would be considerably more accurate than just looking at partial House results for an idea of the primary electorate under normal circumstances.

[Adam Griffin]

Golden 49.995%
St Clair 40.290%

Golden could end up at 49.999% of th vote with 100% of precincts and half of Atlas would still act like St. Clair could win

He would literally need less than one percent of Olson's votes. He's won. St. Clair's all but conceded.

FWIW, Golden's above 50 again:

Golden 50.11%
St. Clair 40.16%
30,796 votes, 66% reporting (274 of 418 precincts)

[136or142]

What is it with the voters of the Maine 2nd district and their Poliquin Romance anyway?

[MAINEiac4434]

I am shocked at the ME-02 result. I had the race as lean St. Clair, especially when I heard turnout in Golden's hometown of Lewiston was soft. Wow.

[Sestak]

I am shocked at the ME-02 result. I had the race as lean St. Clair, especially when I heard turnout in Golden's hometown of Lewiston was soft. Wow.

If Sweet and Golden both win, are you going to change your avatar back?

[MAINEiac4434]

What is it with the voters of the Maine 2nd district and their Poliquin Romance anyway?

Bad Democratic candidate in 2014 and 2016. One of those areas that swung hard right in Obama's second term.

I am shocked at the ME-02 result. I had the race as lean St. Clair, especially when I heard turnout in Golden's hometown of Lewiston was soft. Wow.

Yes.
If Sweet and Golden both win, are you going to change your avatar back?

[YE]

Jared Golden winning makes up for Vilela sucking wind so decent night for me overall. Hosford isn't that bad though. Hopefully Koble hangs on in NV-02.

[MAINEiac4434]

Horsford had name rec and is a pretty good fit for the district.

[MAINEiac4434]

HOLY GOD I JUST SAW KATIE ARRINGTON BEAT MARK SANFORD

LMAOOOOOOO

[136or142]

What is it with the voters of the Maine 2nd district and their Poliquin Romance anyway?

Bad Democratic candidate in 2014 and 2016. One of those areas that swung hard right in Obama's second term.

Thanks for the answer even though it wasn't a serious question.

[MAINEiac4434]

None Of These Candidates is winning in Esmerelda County's Democratic gubernatorial primary.