CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Tintrlvr]

The late-returned ballots always skew (much) more Democratic in California. The Democrats will only go up, across the board, from what you see on the board tonight. No lock-outs are going to happen if the Democrats are in second (even if a very close second in a few races) everywhere relevant on election night.

[Tintrlvr]

1.Paul Cook and Tim Donnelly are at 65% in California 8.  Cook won 58% in 2016.  (I realize this isn't quite the same thing.)  

2.Ken Calvert is over 60% in District 42, he also received about 58% in 2016. (The Democrats had a recruitment failure here.)

OK, I thought there were more, but I'm not sure the Democrats will gain anything in California unless a Democrat makes the runoff against Rohrabacher (and that Democrat will probably lose in 2020 or 2022.)

These figures will go way down. Early vote is strongly Republican in California, late vote strongly Democratic. Democrats will gain at least net 5% across the board (maybe 10% or more in some cases) by the final results relative to anything reporting now.

[Tintrlvr]

By my count, a list of set November races that are guaranteed to NOT be D-R:

CA-06: Doris Matsui (D) vs. Jrmar Jefferson (D)
CA-20: Jimmy Panetta (D) vs. Ronald Kabat (I)
CA-27: Judy Chu (D) vs. Bryan Witt (D)
CA-40: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) vs. Rodolfo Barragan (G)

CA-44 looks pretty certain to be Barragan (D) vs. Brown (D) as well.

[Tintrlvr]

Democrats really over-shot their coverage in a lot of these competitive districts - with the exception of the seats that California Dems have been typically targeting recently (CA-10, CA-25, and dear god CA-21 where Valadao crossed 60%).

After tonight I'm gonna just say CA-21 is Safe R for Valadao and CA-49 is looking more and more like Lean D (Dems are AHEAD of the GOP in a district that was basically made to be Safe Issa and a district with an R registration advantage).

I'd hold off on calling CA-21 safe right now. The Dem base there turns their ballots in last second (read: it'll take weeks to know what really happened), and always has pretty weak primary turnout

There was also no real primary there because there were only two candidates, so Dems did not campaign.

[Tintrlvr]

how many more ballots are there yet to be counted?

Hard to be sure but historically around 20-25% of the vote is counted later (generally with a heavy Dem skew).

[Tintrlvr]

Are we expecting to have a substantial additional amount of votes counted in California today? Or do we have to wait a few days for additional results?

[Tintrlvr]

Keirstead jumped back into 2nd place

Where are the updated results available?

[Tintrlvr]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS - VA:

U.S. House District 1

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Vangie Williams
10,786   39.8%   
Edwin Santana
8,961   33.0   
John Suddarth
7,384   27.2   
27,131 votes, 96% reporting (234 of 244 precincts)

Congratulations to Miss Vangie.

Not the first eliminated this time!

Has anyone commented that Archie Parnell is winning by a huge margin in the D primary in SC-05 despite having dropped out? What's going to happen there?

[Tintrlvr]

The geographic pattern on the ME-02 primary is not (at all) what I would have expected. Maybe the French name is helping St. Clair in the far north (though I would have thought it would also help in Androscoggin County if so). But it is very surprising that St. Clair is doing best in the most rural and remote parts of the district while Golden is stronger in the cities and less remote areas. Edit: Well, I guess St. Clair did win Bangor. But he's also winning places like Fort Kent that I would have thought would hate him.

Also, I assume Craig Olson must be from Islesboro? Otherwise that result stands out very dramatically against the rest.

[Tintrlvr]

So is Tarkanian actually going to be the NV-3 R candidate or is this just early numbers BS?

It's 50% reporting and he's up by 17 points.

[Tintrlvr]

Golden over 50%

52.7%   Jared Golden   11,034   
38.5%   Lucas St. Clair   8,071   
8.8%   Craig Olson   1,840   
46.9% of precincts reporting (196/418)
20,945 total votes

That was Lewiston reporting. Golden probably only goes down from here as his base is basically all in, but that margin will be difficult for St. Clair to overcome, and St. Clair doesn't have a clear geographic base the same way Golden does (winning some counties, but in the mid-50s range, not the 70s range).

[Tintrlvr]

I'm not so certain SC-01 is over, though maybe Sanford is conceding any run-off that happens. Most of the remaining precincts are in Charleston County, which Sanford is winning (while Arrington is winning everywhere else). He's not going to come out of tonight ahead, but I'd give it around even odds that Arrington ends up under 50.

[Tintrlvr]

None of these Candidates (D) seems to be taking more votes than None of these Candidates (R).

Presumably because there's a semi-serious second choice on the R side in the form of Tom Heck but no serious second candidate on the D side.

None of these candidates (R) is doing better than None of these candidates (D) in the gubernatorial primaries where the opposite is true (serious second candidate on the D side but not the R side).

[Tintrlvr]

Golden down to 49.7.

Yea this is where RCV gets annoying, it's unlikely but you could see St. Clair who has like 40% of the vote win when everything is allocated. I think a 45%+ cutoff and you win is good enough and anything below is a runoff election is a better alternative.

This self-serving half-assed stuff is stupid. If you supported St. Clair instead of Golden you wouldn’t say this. If voters genuinely prefer St. Clair to Golden on net (heaven forfend), they should get St. Clair.

[Tintrlvr]

NY-09 -

NY Times endorses Adem Bunkeddeko in the Democratic primary against incumbent Yvette Clarke

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/06/14/opinion/adem-bunkeddeko-in-the-ninth-district.html

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Does Bunkeddeko actually have a chance?

This is my district, and I will say no simply on the basis that there is no evidence at all of an upcoming primary election here, which makes me assume voters will go with the name who has been on the ballot before.

On the other hand, I do live in a relatively unrepresentative part of the district way on the northwestern edge (much whiter and wealthier than the district as a whole), so it could be that the primary has heated up in Crown Heights and East Flatbush and I wouldn't really know it. I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign is focusing on the Caribbean and African immigrant communities in those areas.

[Tintrlvr]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

[Tintrlvr]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

Problem is you have to add them up yourself, here's what they have so far (I'll also put the remaining votes to count in parentheses):

Butte
27,197 (50.41%) - 25,860 (47.93%) (1,034)

Fresno
64,452 (49.55%) - 64,241 (49.39%) (3,200)

Nevada
19,126 (54.04%) - 15,550 (43.93%) (15,059)

Orange
288,397 (49.48%) - 288,331 (49.47%) (45,499)

Riverside
164,255 (51.03%) - 154,556 (48.01%( (32,239)

San Bernardino
126,555 (50.47%) - 121,330% (48.39% (28,960)

Trinity
2,121 (51.83%) - 1,828 (44.67%) (2,582)

Thanks!

Assuming all the remaining ballots are provisionals (and thus heavily D), seems likely that Fresno flips along with Orange, and maybe a chance for San Bernardino to flip, too. Surprising to see OC more Democratic than San Bernardino but I guess there were no competitive House races in SB.

Trinity I guess hasn't counted any late ballots yet? That's a lot of ballots still outstanding relative to votes counted.

Do you have data for Lake County? (Was the 2016 Presidential result a weird fluke or part of a trend?)

[Tintrlvr]

Tonight's CA-48 update: Rouda cuts the gap to 114.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   51,380   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,292   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,178   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   26,840   15.9%

Orange County turnout is now at 40%, with many votes still to be counted.

I know this thread is for Congressional stuff, but Democratic Gubernatorial nominees are only 66 votes away from taking the lead over Republicans in Orange County.

Do you have data on this by county statewide? Especially interesting/swing counties like Riverside, Fresno, Trinity, Butte, Nevada, etc. in addition to Orange.

Problem is you have to add them up yourself, here's what they have so far (I'll also put the remaining votes to count in parentheses):

Butte
27,197 (50.41%) - 25,860 (47.93%) (1,034)

Fresno
64,452 (49.55%) - 64,241 (49.39%) (3,200)

Nevada
19,126 (54.04%) - 15,550 (43.93%) (15,059)

Orange
288,397 (49.48%) - 288,331 (49.47%) (45,499)

Riverside
164,255 (51.03%) - 154,556 (48.01%( (32,239)

San Bernardino
126,555 (50.47%) - 121,330% (48.39% (28,960)

Trinity
2,121 (51.83%) - 1,828 (44.67%) (2,582)

Thanks!

Assuming all the remaining ballots are provisionals (and thus heavily D), seems likely that Fresno flips along with Orange, and maybe a chance for San Bernardino to flip, too. Surprising to see OC more Democratic than San Bernardino but I guess there were no competitive House races in SB.

Trinity I guess hasn't counted any late ballots yet? That's a lot of ballots still outstanding relative to votes counted.

Do you have data for Lake County? (Was the 2016 Presidential result a weird fluke or part of a trend?)

Lake
4,214 (55.14%) - 3,280 (42.92%) (6,037)

Thanks! 2016 was a weird fluke, I guess. Just lots of Trump Democrats on the shores of Clear Lake. Not where one would expect Trump Democrats to be concentrated.

[Tintrlvr]

Mimi Walters is down to 51.7% of the vote

Hopefully this is below the Mimimum she needs to win the general election.

I believe someone recently pointed out that Republicans have lost 9/10 of the Congressional elections in California where the R total was >50% but <55% in the primary since the top-two system was implemented, and the one they didn't lose was the Dem shutout in CA-25 in 2014. So the Dems should feel very good about gaining CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-49 this year (though CA-21 is probably going to remain elusive).

[Tintrlvr]

Issa got 51% in the 2016 primary and won the general by 1.6k votes.

Hmmm... Wish I could find the original post. Maybe the point was 9/10 excluding 2016, since 2016 had the presidential primary where only the Dem side was competitive so the Dems did much relatively better than they otherwise would have downballot?

[Tintrlvr]

I was the only person in my polling station this morning in NY-09. Voted for Adem Bunkedekko but still think he has no chance. My polling station is split across CDs, though, with the voting location actually in NY-08, so at least half the voters had no contest to vote in because I think Hakeem Jeffries is unopposed in the primary.

[Tintrlvr]

Ugh, one drawback of being back in Europe is that I'm always asleep when election night kicks into gear...

Staying up is an option.

...I guess, but 4-5AM is really pushing it. Why do NY polls close so late??

Because New York is the only state with reasonable and sane voting hours that are designed to actually make it feasible for people to vote.

[Tintrlvr]

Do you guys think Grimm would lose the GE? I think it would move from Likely R to Tossup/Tilt R if Grimm wins tonight, I still think he would edge out for now though, but idk a lot about this place, so I would love if someone could give me their takes here.

I would rate it Tilt D if Grimm wins, honestly. Staten Island is very swingy.

[Tintrlvr]

We got maps!





Race didn't really play much of a factor in how people voted, from the looks of it.

Well, it did, but not in the ways you might think.

Most notably, Crowley clearly dominated the black vote. His strongest area was East Elmhurst, which is a traditionally black neighborhood that has had a lot of Latino in-migration recently, whose turnout is likely much, much lower than the black population as the black population is mostly elderly, well established and, unlike in most of the rest of NYC, almost all citizens/not immigrants. The Parkchester result also points to Crowley doing relatively well with black voters. He also seems to have done well with Asian voters, as you can see in (the Asian parts of) Jackson Heights and again in Parkchester.

Crowley also did well in the remaining "ethnic white" areas in the Bronx, such as Country Club, and in the Albanian enclave in the Bronx. But he got demolished in Astoria, which these days is more hipster-y and Arab-American (and perhaps Greek-Americans never felt the same connection to him that Italian-Americans or Irish-Americans did -- though note he did well in/won the most traditional and least hipster parts of Astoria in the far northeast, abutting on LaGuardia - furthest from the subway lines).

Overall, it is clear that Ocasio-Cortez's base was young, white hipsters rather than Latino voters, and this was primarily a generational and transplants vs. locals election rather than an election on racial lines.