CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[I’m not Stu]

13% reporting. Imperial County: Feinstein 28.3, de Leon 15.7. Surprising KDL isn't doing better.

[I’m not Stu]

De Leon is doing poorly in Imperial. Even if he makes it past the primary (he likely will), this doesn't bode well for him.

[I’m not Stu]

It looks like Feinstein easily beats KDL in November.

[I’m not Stu]

Reporting as of now. SD-34: Janet Nguyen (R) 61%, Tom Umberg (D) 25%. Not looking good for Democrats in this State Senate district.

[I’m not Stu]

Imperial County: Feinstein 28, de Leon 15.

[I’m not Stu]

Whats going on in CA-31 ? why is it so close ?

It's not really all that close. It's only "close" because two Democrats are in the race. Ahmed is taking votes from Aguilar. Democrats are still in the majority here.

[I’m not Stu]

Michael Jackson's lawyer is getting less than 2% in the Senate primary, behind TYT stan Alison Hartson.

It's a shame they put so much effort into this and not let de Leon have it. The 400K could have given Menendez a scare for his life in which at worst he would have drifted left.

Feinstein is drifting left. She now supports marijuana legalization.

[I’m not Stu]

Michael Jackson's lawyer is getting less than 2% in the Senate primary, behind TYT stan Alison Hartson.

It's a shame they put so much effort into this and not let de Leon have it. The 400K could have given Menendez a scare for his life in which at worst he would have drifted left.

Feinstein is drifting left. She now supports marijuana legalization.

Yeah she's been trying to agree with Sanders on foreign policy lately and she flipped on the death penalty. But the leftward shift is more likely due to de Leon being in the race, not Hartson.

I knew that. Orange County District Attorney: Tony Rackauckas (R) 40, Todd Spitzer (R) 35, Brett Murdock (D) 21. Democrats are likely locked out for OCDA.

[I’m not Stu]

Josh Newman is recalled. It looks like the special election runoff is R vs. R. (Ling Ling Chang vs. Bruce Whitaker).

[I’m not Stu]

CA-GOV and Insurance Commissioner runoffs are both D vs. R.

[I’m not Stu]

CA-GOV and Insurance Commissioner runoffs are both D vs. R.

Technically Insurance Commissioner is D vs NPP, but Poizner used to be a Republican (and indeed held the office as a Republican from 2007 to 2011). My friend suggested that "former" Republicans will change to NPP to get a boost based on this result. We'll see how it goes for Poizner in the fall, but he could win it.

Poizner is a de facto Republican, just like Angus King is a de facto Democrat.

[I’m not Stu]

Good-ish. No Dem lockouts are really that plausible anymore. Republicans recalled Newman, but Democrats gained AD-76 by shutting out Republicans.

And the 2016 trends appear to be manifesting themselves in places like Orange County where all the Dems are leading statewide except for Governor and Insurance Commissioner

Not to mention that Democrats have a few state Senate seat prospects in November, if I recall. I don't have the seat #s on hand right now but I think at least one of them is a bigly Clinton district, so Democrats could be back with a supermajority as soon as January 2019. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get up to or more than 60 Assembly seats as well.

Newman is a shame, but Democrats need to be more careful about taxes - especially the gas tax, which they already have inflated beyond the national average for a number of voluntary reasons (they chose environment over cheaper gas).

I blame Steve Glazer. He’s the jackass that sits in a 64% Clinton seat that voted no on that plan, forcing Newman to be one of the 27 yes votes for it.

But oh well. I highly doubt Ling Ling Chang will be able to hold SD-29 in a Presidential year like 2020 with that seat getting bluer by the week. And yeah, SD-12 is an open Clinton +21 seat that Anna Caballero should be slightly favored in. SD-14 and SD-36 look kinda promising after seeing the results tonight. Doesn’t look like Janet Nguyen is going anywhere.

Nguyen is still very popular, especially in the Vietnamese-American community. Josh Lowenthal is in first for AD-72, but Republicans as a whole are getting a large majority of the vote. These seats are starting to look less promising for Democrats.

[I’m not Stu]

It looks like Berniecrats Thorburn and Applegate have been major duds. Justice Democrats and Our Revolution candidates haven't done well.

[I’m not Stu]

100% reporting for Imperial County, CA. Feinstein 29, de Leon 15. De Leon severely underperformed in Imperial. Expect him to lose the runoff in a landslide.

[I’m not Stu]

So, how are the results looking? Good/bad for Democrats, any notable upsets? For those not willing to read the whole threaadd

Good-ish. No Dem lockouts are really that plausible anymore. Republicans recalled Newman, but Democrats gained AD-76 by shutting out Republicans.

And the 2016 trends appear to be manifesting themselves in places like Orange County where all the Dems are leading statewide except for Governor and Insurance Commissioner

Cole Harris (R-Lt. GOV) won OC.

[I’m not Stu]

Who wins the SC gubernatorial GOP runoff?

[I’m not Stu]

Rouda's lead over Keirstead shrinks from 69 to 62 votes.

[I’m not Stu]

Rouda's lead over Keirstead shrinks from 456 to 62 votes.

What? Keirstead initially lead by 456 and now trails by 62.

My mistake. Rouda's lead was about 70. It's now shrunk to 62.

[I’m not Stu]

19,397 votes in Orange County still need to be counted. It's still unknown who faces Rohrabacher.

[I’m not Stu]

The only runoff poll in CA-48 with Rouda shows him leading Rohrabacher. When will the California vote totals be officially certified?

[I’m not Stu]

Steve Knight is in big doo doo in his even PVI district. He faces Katie Hill. State Senator Janet Nguyen received a large majority in the primary of her D+6 district, even winning Democratic stronghold Long Beach with a significant majority. Nguyen is probably not vulnerable and is favored to beat Tom Umberg.

[I’m not Stu]

Who wins AL-02 GOP runoff, Roby or Bright?

[I’m not Stu]

McMaster now leads 52.4-47.6.

McMaster: 15,826
Warren: 14,394