CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Oryxslayer]

6/5 will be the busiest days yet!

There is no way that California won't be done counting votes until weeks after June 5.

Definitely. My ballot shows up in DC next week - no way it gets counted on primary night. I look forward to Wulfric making prediction mistakes or having to wait weeks to make calls because of absentees.

[Oryxslayer]

Currently a little over one million mail-in ballots have been turned in.
http://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/

Democrats: 44%
Republicans 33%
No Party Preference: 18%
Other: 4%

A further look at the current numbers shows that Republicans have a turn in advantage in every city in Orange County except Santa Ana, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Seal Beach and Stanton. Buena Park currently is tied percentage wise. Orange County Republicans seem to be motivated to vote. Republicans hold a large advantage in CA-39 (+12), CA-45 (+16) and CA-48 (+11). They hold a narrow margin in CA-49 (+2).

Well, they do have a registration advantage down there. We won't know till the polls close whether those Reps are as loyal to their congressman as they were to Trump in 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, I'm looking at CNN right now, they appear to have a countdown clock till 10pm est, so I guess we will have national coverage tonight. They also appear to be unhealthy hyping up the potential for lockouts, both DvD and RvR.

[Oryxslayer]

My ballot took too long to arrive in DC, I don't get to vote

[Oryxslayer]

I have a total of 22 tabs open of New York Times Election results.

Mind filling in my list - I'm going to be doing something similar later. I assume 8 for CA races (7 C seats +CA-50), 3 for NJ seats, 1 for Al-02, and and then the 8 main pages - but that is only 20.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone know if Lisa McCormick has a serious chance at winning the primary?

[Oryxslayer]

Malowiski up in Hunterdon

SBC up in Coffee county - we currently lack a gubenatorial results thread for this.

[Oryxslayer]

McCormick on the map with 2 votes!

In other news, it looks like Maddox was overhyped.

[Oryxslayer]

Did anybody already mention it? Bobby Bright made the runoff in AL-2.

Yeah this was obvious earlier when Roby was clearly going to be held under 50.

[Oryxslayer]

I know its not his fault, but Fagg is such an unfortunate last name and we'd all be better off if we didnt have to say it on a regular basis.

Republican turnout in the general would go down if he got nominated lol!

I can already read the header: Tester smokes a Fagg to celebrate his return to the senate.

[Oryxslayer]

Early votes from OC:

Young Kim (R) 29%
Gil Cisneros (D) 16%
Phil Liberatore (R) 12%
Shawn Nelson (R) 9%
Andy Thorburn (D) 8%

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004198109839351809

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1004198371001806849

[Oryxslayer]

NYT now has the OC numbers for 45 and 39.

[Oryxslayer]

30% of precincts in CA-10 - all from the more conservative Stanislaus

Jeff Denham
10,947   38.3%

Josh Harder
4,326   15.1   

Ted Howze
3,866   13.5   

[Oryxslayer]

This is looking bad for dems in CA.

LUL wut. This is what CA-Dems expected. 48 was the scary lockout chance, which appears to have come true as the chance of a potential lockout. 

Anyway, Bryan Caforio and katie Hill are exactly tied in CA-25.

[Oryxslayer]

This is looking bad for dems in CA.

Remember, kids, always base your analysis on the earliest, most unrepresentative precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

The heat of the takes in this thread is astounding.

pittsburgh steel is the most partisan cheerleader I have ever encountered in my many years of following politics on message boards.

This has to be a joke.

Compared to Krazen? Or does he count as a troll.

[Oryxslayer]

Some precincts have arrived in CA-48, didn't change the numbers

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1004225531775242240

[Oryxslayer]

I know it's so very tempting to come away from an election night with a conclusion, but that just is not possible in California given how they count their votes.  Given all the hot takes I've read, apparently this is something that must be reiterated.  

[Oryxslayer]

I hate to agree with the democratic hacks right now...but can we lay off the nuclear hot takes? We typically don't make them with 20% in when counting in other states....

[Oryxslayer]

Just got up, wen to bed at 3am est last night. Anyway looks like Rouda passed, Keirstead, which s nice. Overall, looks like Dems got everything they wanted.

Before the Dem-Leaning advance ballots, we have:

CA-10 Reps lead dems 52.1% - 47.9%
CA-25 Reps lead dems 52.8% - 47.2%
CA-39 Reps lead dems 54.1% - 44.1%
CA-45 Reps lead dems 53.2% - 44.4%
CA-48 Reps lead dems 53% - 46.1%
CA-49 Dems lead Reps 50..4% - 48.3%

Those are all improvements from 2016, where the primary was more tilted towards them dems thanks to Trump already having the nomination. I see no reason why they all won't be competitive in the fall.

[Oryxslayer]

When all the vote counting is over, Democrats might end up with more votes cast in Orange County:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1004353533431468033

Dem's got more votes in Weak-Trump-voting Morris last night then Reps, I wouldn't be surprised if a similar situation emerges in Clinton-voting OC.

[Oryxslayer]

Hopefully it is not an exact tie. Under California law, a tie for 2nd place means that both make it to the runoff, which would mean that there would be vote splitting in the general.

I was wondering what happened if there was a tie for 2nd, thanks.

Of course it's an incredibly unlikely scenario, but could they agree to flip a coin or something and the loser withdraw?

In the extremely unlikely event this happens, the state dems would probably hand one a golden parachute to drop out - of course the chances of this happening are extremely low. Recounts and ballot challenges will see to that. The main downside of this whole process though is that Rouda and Keirstead will still be at each others throats for the entirely of the next month over ballot access, and maybe even longer then that. hard to unite the regional coalition quickly in that scenario.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/poll-katie-arrington-within-striking-distance-in-race-against-mark/article_3dad21a2-6aca-11e8-a070-ff58f4c3cd13.html

SC-01 Republican Primary
Mark Sanford - 39.7%
Katie Arrington - 39

You must be logged in to read this quote.

.

In 2016, Sanford faced a different female republican in the primary, and he won by an unimpressive 10 point margin. I don't think it will be a coincidence if he goes down to a woman in the year that female voters are increasingly participating in primaries at a alarming rate. If there is any republican primary voter group that care's about his troubles in Argentina, then it is female voters.

If Sanford either loses his primary or emerges wounded from an extremely close race, it would be easy to see a path to victory for Democrats in this seat. The Charleston suburbs might have a good number of votes up for grabs this year.

There was a close race in the 1st District back in 2008, although the lines have shifted quite a bit since then. I could see it being close, doubt it flips.

I think we’re still a few cycles from the 1st being competitive

The first will never really be competitive, at least more competitive then now or it's past incarnations. Pop loss in the Black belt means that the district has to grab more and more of  Charleston's dems with redistricting - and thats the VRA, not partisan gerrymandering.

[Oryxslayer]

So the only real noteworthy races tonight are:

-WI specials
-ME-2, -Gov
-VA-Sen (R)

Right? Everything else seems fairly uneventful; I doubt NV-Gov (D) and NV-4 are all that interesting given how machine-heavy Nevada Democratic politics are.

SC-01 as well.