CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[GeorgiaModerate]

With under a week left until June 5th. Here is the current composition of mail in ballots in California.
12% of 1,404,822 ballots have been returned:

44% Democratic
34% Republican
18% No Party Preference
4% Other

Demographics:
73% White
14% Latino
11% Asian
2% African American

Age:
50% 65 +
27% 50-64
13% 35-49
10% 18-34

How does this compare to previous midterms?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sincere request for tonight: since California results will trickle in for days or weeks and the final results may be very different from tonight's returns, can we please avoid any hot takes based on tonight's returns?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It really is ridiculous/disgraceful that CA can’t count faster

Since the ballots can be received as late as Friday as long as they're postmarked by today, there's necessarily going to be some delay involved.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1004151322516643843

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, we have our first runoff locked in:

Alabama Lt. Gov.
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Twinkle Cavanaugh
30,645   43.9%   
Will Ainsworth
27,900   40.0   
Rusty Glover
11,239   16.1   
69,784 votes, 14% reporting (296 of 2,169 precincts)

Alabama so needs a state officer named Twinkle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got up and am looking at current results - it's looking like no Dem lockouts anywhere other than the 8th? That's not bad.

Even the 8th is a maybe.  As more ballots are counted, it may reverse that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1004347715151638528

[GeorgiaModerate]

To give you an idea of how much of the vote is still out in CA, even with 100% precincts reporting nearly everywhere - there are 188k ballots still to be counted in Orange County.  369k ballots have been counted in Orange County so far.  So that's 1/3 of the total OC vote that will be counted over the coming weeks.

It could even be more than 188K as additional ballots trickle in through Friday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Y’all still taking LL’s bait?

Limoliberal should open a fishing store at this point. He reels them in like nobody’s business.

I'm starting to think about unignoring him.  From the posts you guys quote, it looks like he may have some value as a reverse prognosticator.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, that's close:

DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   33,198   30.4%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   18,827   17.2%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   18,782   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   17,601   16.1%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Someone who is evidently confused on how the California primaries work:

https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/1004518471177261056

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully it is not an exact tie. Under California law, a tie for 2nd place means that both make it to the runoff, which would mean that there would be vote splitting in the general.

I was wondering what happened if there was a tie for 2nd, thanks.

Of course it's an incredibly unlikely scenario, but could they agree to flip a coin or something and the loser withdraw?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, what are the seats with no Democratic challengers currently? I know NC-3 doesn't have one.

Also the Georgia 9th District held by Republican Austin Scott.  There was a Democrat in the race at one point but that person dropped out to run for State Agriculture Commissioner instead.

Austin Scott is in the 8th.  The 9th (my district!) is represented by Doug Collins.  We actually had a Democratic primary this year, not that it will make much difference in November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh man. Sometimes I find it hard to believe that Jacob Wohl is an actual person-

https://twitter.com/JacobAWohl/status/1004224965757947905

LOL.  He's in for a rude shock in November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walters vote share dropped from 53.2% to 52.7%.

Where are you getting that? Everything I see has Walters at 53.1%

Tonight's vote update at https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

* MIMI WALTERS (REP)   60,384   52.7%
KATIE PORTER (DEM)   22,847   20.0%
DAVE MIN (DEM)   20,082   17.5%
BRIAN FORDE (DEM)   6,560   5.7%
JOHN GRAHAM   2,645   2.3%
KIA HAMADANCHY (DEM)   1,979   1.7%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walters vote share dropped from 53.2% to 52.7%.

Where are you getting that? Everything I see has Walters at 53.1%

Tonight's vote update at https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm/

* MIMI WALTERS (REP)   60,384   52.7%
KATIE PORTER (DEM)   22,847   20.0%
DAVE MIN (DEM)   20,082   17.5%
BRIAN FORDE (DEM)   6,560   5.7%
JOHN GRAHAM   2,645   2.3%
KIA HAMADANCHY (DEM)   1,979   1.7%

The link is broken

https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

This work?

Thanks.  Fixed it in my earlier post.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any new updates on CA48?

Current count:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   38,629   30.5%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   21,893   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   21,806   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   20,332   16.0%

Next update at 5pm PDT Monday.  https://www.ocvote.com/fileadmin/live/pri2018/results.htm

[GeorgiaModerate]

Keirstead's lead for second widens a bit:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   40,703   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   23,077   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   22,705   17.0%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   21,467   16.1%

EDIT: Per Dave Wasserman, there have still been no Election Day provisionals counted, which he believes will strongly favor Rouda.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone's favorite thing in the world! Virginia turnout reports!

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1006545599859183617

But is it raining in NoVA?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results pages?

From previous page:

Results Pages are up. This is the link for Maine, links to the others are visible there. Use incongito mode. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/12/us/elections/results-maine-primary-elections.html

Polls close at 7 ET in VA and SC, 8 ET in ME, 9 ET in ND, and 10 ET in NV. Be sure to also watch the state legislative thread for coverage of two key elections in WI, where polls close at 9 ET.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a runoff in South Carolina.  If so, what is the threshold?  If not, could Governor McMaster lose?

Yes, 50% +1.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lmao, Comstock is going to get Blanched this November.

No...the pundits told me it was a toss up...muh incumbency and Comstock dominated in 2014!

It's all environment.  If Clinton was President, Comstock would be reelected easily.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lmao, Comstock is going to get Blanched this November.

No...the pundits told me it was a toss up...muh incumbency and Comstock dominated in 2014!

It's all environment.  If Clinton was President, Comstock would be reelected easily.

If Clinton was president, Comstock wouldn't be in Congress right now.

Why, you think she would have replaced Kaine in a special?  The Senate is part of Congress.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In other news, California is still counting, and Keirstead continues to gradually expand his lead for 2nd place in CA-48.  Tonight's update:

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   42,405   30.6%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   23,969   17.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   23,513   17.0%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   22,375   16.2%