CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any particular reason to prefer Rouda over Keirstead (or vice versa)? They look pretty interchangeable to me, tbh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any particular reason to prefer Rouda over Keirstead (or vice versa)? They look pretty interchangeable to me, tbh.

Keirstead did have that issue where apparently he was accused of sleeping with (graduate) students, but apparently he was cleared of that (at least as much as you're willing to trust a university investigation I guess?). Either way, it's something of a liability.

...it definitely is, yeah. And I can't say I have that much trust in internal university investigations. Glad Rouda will (likely) make it then.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Really? Wouldn't $15/hour still amount to a lot more than what they get now including tips?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nothing too exciting today, but for whoever cares:

DC (8 ET): https://wtop.com/local-politics-elections-news/2018/06/2018-dc-primary-results/

AR (8:30 ET): http://www.arkansasonline.com/2018runoffs/

Most interesting vote tonight is the Init 77 - Minimum Wage - Ballot Issue, which if passed would end the tipping economy in DC as all employees would be paid the $15 minimum wage.

Any guess as to what its odds are?

I'm not sure, there has been some pushback from worker groups because if tipped workers were to go to $15 a hour, employers would be allowed to take what ever tips they do get.

Really? Wouldn't $15/hour still amount to a lot more than what they get now including tips?

In the general case, yes, but a lower wage + tipped earnings can and occasionally does exceed a $15/hr avg and effectively rewards good work and punishes bad. Under the proposed amendment, every worker, from the best to the worst, would get $15/hr, no more (unless the employer is feeling generous) and no less.

So increased average wages + not being at the mercy of demanding rich customers? I call that a win-win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rouda now in second place by 40 votes.  I don't know how much is left, if any.

* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP)   52,013   30.4%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM)   29,575   17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM)   29,535   17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP)   27,124   15.8%

Any chance Baugh wins all the remaining votes and causes a #DemLockout?

Even if he did win all remaining votes, that wouldn't be enough.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, sad to see that labor defeated the workers with Proposition 77. An unfortunate result for hard-working people in DC.

ayy lmao

Splendid victory for DC workers!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, sad to see that labor defeated the workers with Proposition 77. An unfortunate result for hard-working people in DC.

"labor defeated the workers"

that's some galaxy brain sh**t right there

MAEKS U THINK

[Antonio the Sixth]

ME-2 D Results:



With this result, all of the 6/12 primaries have finally been called.

Oh thank God.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about ME-Gov?

[Antonio the Sixth]

how many more votes need to be counted

700K according to this, but it might be outdated.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even in CA-48, where two candidates split the Dem vote perfectly evenly, they both distanced the closest Republican by 2.5K votes. Tell me again how the muh dem lockout scenario wasn't overblown...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even in CA-48, where two candidates split the Dem vote perfectly evenly, they both distanced the closest Republican by 2.5K votes. Tell me again how the muh dem lockout scenario wasn't overblown...

This post is fake news! The Democrats were locked out of the 8th district.  Red Wave coming!  (sorry)  (Although it is a fact that the Democrats were locked out in the 8th district.)

Yeah, I find it kind of annoying just because I'd have loved to say Democrats qualified in all 53 seats. Still, it's a solid R seat anyway so whatevs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is just one seat, and it was easily the worst-case scenario for Dems (two equally popular candidates splitting the vote almost evenly) and they still made it pretty comfortably. 1.5 points might not seem like a lot, but in this day and age there are few things in a campaign that move the needle by as much. And again, it's just one seat where this was even a possibility. Compare this to the media narrative that suggested Dems were probably about to get shut out everywhere (including in CA-49 where they took the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots)...

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is just one seat, and it was easily the worst-case scenario for Dems (two equally popular candidates splitting the vote almost evenly) and they still made it pretty comfortably. 1.5 points might not seem like a lot, but in this day and age there are few things in a campaign that move the needle by as much. And again, it's just one seat where this was even a possibility. Compare this to the media narrative that suggested Dems were probably about to get shut out everywhere (including in CA-49 where they took the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots)...

It is hard to move the needle when each candidate has consolidated support in a general election, but we're talking about races where each candidate was only pulling in like 15, 16, 17 points or so, with an incredible number of candidates. It could have easily gone one way or another, and with Republicans only trailing by <4 points in at least 3 races, I really have to disagree that lockouts were not a real concern in those districts. I don't know if all the hype it got was warranted, but it's not like CA-10, CA-39 and CA-48 did not have close races that could have a different way under slightly different circumstances.

I mean yeah, there definitely was a small but real possibility that one of the seats ended up in a lockout, but given that the sort of factors that could have brought that outcome would have to be a district-specific factor, the probability of it happening in more than one seat was minimal. And honestly, it wouldn't have been that big of a tragedy if Democrats lost one seat that was never a top pickup to begin with. In probabilistic terms, it would have amounted to a loss of 0.4 or 0.5 seats. Which, yes, I would have found frustrating, but definitely not enough to warrant the panicky op-eds or (what bothers me especially) the unfair attacks on the top-two system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I agree that RCV would be a superior system, and I hope California eventually gets there, but in the meantime, I maintain that it's better than reverting to the default of FPP. What parties need to do is ramp up their efforts to coordinate with candidates and impose some discipline on the races. 2018 is, if anything, a testament to the fact that the Democratic party is capable of doing just that. Sure, it didn't go perfectly, but I bet it will only get better at it from there. So things are more or less working themselves out as they should, and there's no need to complain so much about the system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, one drawback of being back in Europe is that I'm always asleep when election night kicks into gear...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, one drawback of being back in Europe is that I'm always asleep when election night kicks into gear...

Staying up is an option.

...I guess, but 4-5AM is really pushing it. Why do NY polls close so late??

[Antonio the Sixth]

47%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Definitely meh night overall, but at least we kicked Crowley out and made Clarke sweat. Better than nothing.