California Statewide Megathread (non-governor)

[Coastal Elitist]

Since the June 5th Primary is approaching I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the other statewide offices in California apart from Governor. I've listed the candidates in order of highest fundraising.

Lieutenant Governor:
Cole Harris (R)
Jeff Bleich (D)
Eleni Kounalakis (D)
Ed Hernandez (D)
Gayle McLaughlin (NPP)
Lydia Ortega (R)
Cameron Gharabiklou (D)
Timothy Ferreira (L)
David Hernandez (R)
David Fennell (R)
Danny Thomas (NPP)*

The only interesting thing about this election will be who makes the top 2. This position is basically powerless in California. I would say that Harris and Bleich are favored to make the runoff.

Secretary of State:
Alex Padilla (incumbent) (D)
Mark Meuser (R)
Ruben Major (D)
Raul Rodriguez (R)*
Gail Lightfoot (L)*
Erik Rydberg (G)*
Michael Feinstein (G)*
CT Weber (PFP)*

Being the incumbent Padilla should easily win. The question is can Major get enough Democrats to vote for him to create a D vs D situation. The RNC didn't endorse anyone is this race but Meuser has received the same amount of contributions as Major.

Controller:
Betty Yee (incumbent) (D)
Konstantinos Roditis (R)
Mary Lou Finley (PFP)*

Nothing to see here with only one Republic and one Democrat both Yee and Roditis should square off in the general election

Treasurer:
Fiona Ma (D)
Vivek Viswanathan (D)
Greg Conlon (R)
Jack Guerrero (R)*
Kevin Akin (PFP)*

This race could potentially be D vs D due to Viswanathan actually receiving a lot of contributions compared to Conlon and Guerrero. I think Ma and Conlon will advance.

Attorney General:
Xavier Becerra (incumbent) (D)
Dave Jones (D)
Steven Bailey (R)
Eric Early (R)

With two Democrats and two Republicans this race could be D vs D. However Becerra is an incumbent and Jones will probably struggle to get many Democratic votes. Bailey received the endorsement of the RNC, so that could help advance. The only poll for this race has Becerra and Bailey advancing and I agree with that.

Insurance Commissioner:
Asif Mahmood (D)
Ricardo Lara (D)
Steve Poizer (NPP)
Nathalie Hrizi (PFP)

This race is interesting as former Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner seeks to get his old job back this time as no party preference candidate. Poizner should be the favorite to advance as he has gotten the endorsement of the San Francisco Chronice, San Jose Mercury News, East Bay Times, Sacramento Bee and Modesto Bee. He has also led in the polls and is favored alongside Lara to advance. Poizner is the most qualified candidate for the job.

* = no contributions reported

I'd like to see other people's opinions of these races and who they think will advance.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

In the Lieutenant Gubernatorial race, I think that Eleni Kounalakis will take one of the top two spots. She's been dominating the airwaves in Sacramento (Kamala Harris endorses Kounalakis in these ads, which helps Harris's profile too). Kounalakis's dad is a big real estate developer (Angelo Tsakopoulos) and has helped fund her/super pacs that support her. I'm voting for McLaughlin, but I'm not sure that she'll break 5%.

Haven't heard much about SoS, but I suspect Padilla will coast to victory both in two weeks and in November.

Ditto for Betty Yee and the office of Controller.

Fiona Ma isn't the incumbent Treasurer. John Chiang will be leaving the office after one term (see the Gubernatorial election). I'm guessing Ma will take one of the spots though.

Attorney General is an interesting race. I'd like to see some polling for it. Wiki has a Gravis poll, but it's Gravis. It has Becerra and Bailey leading with 28% and 21% respectively, with Jones and Early tied at 10%. Jones has been insurance commissioner for the last 7.5 years. Kinda sucked for him that Harris vacated because Jones probably would've been a shoo-in in an open race. Becerra has been a bulldog against Trump and I think he'll be rewarded for that. I can see one of the Republicans taking the second spot.

Poizner and Lara will probably take the top two spots for Insurance Commissioner.

For State Superintendent of Public Instruction, there's four candidates.
Tony Thurmond
Marshall Tuck
Lily Ploski
Steven Ireland

I'm guessing that it will be a Thurmond-Tuck runoff. Unlike other statewide offices, State Superintendent is non-partisan and this could be the actual election if someone breaks 50%. Tuck ran last time and lost to Tom Torlakson, who is termed out. Tuck is a big supporter of charter schools.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Wiki has a few polls for Insurance Comissioner.

Steve Poizner (No Party Preference) leads in all three, with Ricardo Lara (Dem state senator) in second in two and tied for second with Asif Mahmood (Dem doctor) in the third. The sample for the Gravis poll is rubbish though (Hillary 49, Trump 35, Johnson 6, Stein 3). Poizner was the state insurance commissioner from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican.

[I’m not Stu]

I just created this article for Orange County District Attorney. Incumbent Tony Rackauckas (R), is plagued by many scandals. Todd Spitzer (R) and Brett Murdock (D) are the serious challengers. Who makes the runoff to face Rackauckas?

[MAINEiac4434]

Really pulling for McLaughlin in the LG race.

[I’m not Stu]

What will the primary county map for Lt. Governor look like?

[President Johnson]

Who's favored in the Lt. Gov. race? Kounalakis and Hernandez picked up most notable endorsements.

[I’m not Stu]

Who's favored in the Lt. Gov. race? Kounalakis and Hernandez picked up most notable endorsements.

I believe Ed Hernandez is favored. Bleich or Kounalakis or Bleich likely finishes second.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Who's favored in the Lt. Gov. race? Kounalakis and Hernandez picked up most notable endorsements.

No idea. There hasn't been any polling (not even Gravis). Kounalakis is probably in a good position because she and her super pacs are well funded. Beyond that, it could be Hernandez, Bleich, or McLaughlin. OurRevolution is really pushing McLaughlin. Saw a TV ad for Bleich, got a text from OurRev for McLaughlin, and I've seen numerous mailers touting Hernandez. Way more ads for Kounalakis though.

I'm walking back my comments about McLaughlin not breaking 5%. She could maybe get 10%? Still hard to say though.

[I’m not Stu]

Who's favored in the Lt. Gov. race? Kounalakis and Hernandez picked up most notable endorsements.

No idea. There hasn't been any polling (not even Gravis). Kounalakis is probably in a good position because she and her super pacs are well funded. Beyond that, it could be Hernandez, Bleich, or McLaughlin. OurRevolution is really pushing McLaughlin. Saw a TV ad for Bleich, got a text from OurRev for McLaughlin, and I've seen numerous mailers touting Hernandez. Way more ads for Kounalakis though.

I'm walking back my comments about McLaughlin not breaking 5%. She could maybe get 10%? Still hard to say though.

Who wins Orange County (my home county), Ed Hernandez?

[_]

What polls are there for the Insurance Commissioner Race?  Poizner is one of the Candidates I'm watching and rooting for in CA so I hope he's doing well.

[Coastal Elitist]

What polls are there for the Insurance Commissioner Race?  Poizner is one of the Candidates I'm watching and rooting for in CA so I hope he's doing well.

There have been a few polls. It looks like he should make the runoff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Insurance_Commissioner_election,_2018#Polling

[_]

What polls are there for the Insurance Commissioner Race?  Poizner is one of the Candidates I'm watching and rooting for in CA so I hope he's doing well.

There have been a few polls. It looks like he should make the runoff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Insurance_Commissioner_election,_2018#Polling

Those aren't bad numbers at all, hopefully he breaks 40%, that'd be huge.

[Coastal Elitist]

Who's favored in the Lt. Gov. race? Kounalakis and Hernandez picked up most notable endorsements.

I believe Ed Hernandez is favored. Bleich or Kounalakis or Bleich likely finishes second.

I wouldn't count on the runoff being D vs D. Republican Cole Harris has the RNC endorsement and has spent 2 million dollars on his campaign.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Who's favored in the Lt. Gov. race? Kounalakis and Hernandez picked up most notable endorsements.

I believe Ed Hernandez is favored. Bleich or Kounalakis or Bleich likely finishes second.

I wouldn't count on the runoff being D vs D. Republican Cole Harris has the RNC endorsement and has spent 2 million dollars on his campaign.

I'd laugh if it was Harris-McLaughlin (or vice versa). Good to know about Harris though. Also, can you add the second "a" into "Megathread"? Thanks in advance.

[Coastal Elitist]

In AD-76 (the one Rocky Chavez is vacating to run for CA-49), Dems look almost guaranteed to lock out Republicans. Only 2 Dems are running vs. 6 Republicans, and Dems are outvoting Republicans there.

Catharine Baker's AD-16 that went for Clinton by over 35 points, lol. But she's a survivor of 2016.

Catharine Barker is my state assemblywoman and she actually won by more in 2016 (+11. than she did in 2014 (+3.2). In 2016 the Democrat running against her sent out attack mailers that lied about her record in the state assembly. It's a similar theme this year from her Democrat opponent. Baker has a moderate record and has received the endorsement of the East Bay Times, and the San Francisco Chronicle. She's very active in her district by holding joint town halls with our state senator. She holds other events to meet with constituents. There are actually signs in my hometown neighborhood for her and I've never seen a sign for a Republican in my neighborhood. She'll be very hard to beat.

[Coastal Elitist]

In AD-76 (the one Rocky Chavez is vacating to run for CA-49), Dems look almost guaranteed to lock out Republicans. Only 2 Dems are running vs. 6 Republicans, and Dems are outvoting Republicans there.

Catharine Baker's AD-16 that went for Clinton by over 35 points, lol. But she's a survivor of 2016.

Catharine Barker is my state assemblywoman and she actually won by more in 2016 (+11. than she did in 2014 (+3.2). In 2016 the Democrat running against her sent out attack mailers that lied about her record in the state assembly. It's a similar theme this year from her Democrat opponent. She has a moderate record and has received the endorsement of the East Bay Times, and the San Francisco Chronicle. She's very active in her district by holding joint town halls with our state senator. She holds other events to meet with constituents. There are actually signs in my hometown neighborhood for her and I've never seen a sign for a Republican in my neighborhood. She'll be very hard to beat.

Oh, I don’t doubt that. But the sheer partisanship of this seat should be enough to make her perennially one of the most vulnerable members of the Assembly. Legislators get thrown out in waves all the time simply for having the wrong letter after their names. Look at the Virginia bloodbath last year for the most recent example.

Just the fact that Clinton won this seat by 35 points puts this in the top tier of most vulnerable seats. Especially when the second bluest seat held by a Republican in the Assembly is Maienschein’s, which Clinton won by 16%. AD-16 is as blue as North Dakota is red.

True but there are a couple different factors that differ from those Virginia races. First I doubt the Republican candidates got endorsed by the local liberal papers. Also, Baker has outraised her opponent 2-1 in this district. People here hate Trump, but like Baker. The PVI of this district is D +12.

Also I do think Poizner would have won reelection in 2010.

[Coastal Elitist]

Poll for Lt. Gov by YouGov. https://files-west-stanford-edu.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/billlanecenter-yougov-ca_primary_toplines_20180524.pdf

Cole Harris 16%
Eleni Kounalakis 14%
Ed Hernandez 9%
David Hernandez 6%
Jeff Bleich 6%
Gayle McLaughlin 4%
Others 4%
Undecided 41%

It's a crap poll though. It oversamples Latinos and younger voters.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Poll for Lt. Gov by YouGov. https://files-west-stanford-edu.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/billlanecenter-yougov-ca_primary_toplines_20180524.pdf

Cole Harris 16%
Eleni Kounalakis 14%
Ed Hernandez 9%
David Hernandez 6%
Jeff Bleich 6%
Gayle McLaughlin 4%
Others 4%
Undecided 41%

It's a crap poll though. It oversamples Latinos and younger voters.

If it's oversampling Latinos, I would say that Cole Harris has a good shot at getting into the top two. We'll see on the Democratic side, but Kounalakis is looking good. I'm surprised that McLaughlin isn't doing at least a bit better (like 7-8%).

[Coastal Elitist]

Poll for Lt. Gov by YouGov. https://files-west-stanford-edu.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/billlanecenter-yougov-ca_primary_toplines_20180524.pdf

Cole Harris 16%
Eleni Kounalakis 14%
Ed Hernandez 9%
David Hernandez 6%
Jeff Bleich 6%
Gayle McLaughlin 4%
Others 4%
Undecided 41%

It's a crap poll though. It oversamples Latinos and younger voters.

If it's oversampling Latinos, I would say that Cole Harris has a good shot at getting into the top two. We'll see on the Democratic side, but Kounalakis is looking good. I'm surprised that McLaughlin isn't doing at least a bit better (like 7-8%).

She's only raised like 100,000 dollars and there are to many Democrats running.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

CA state Secretary of State's election results:

https://vote.sos.ca.gov/

[I’m not Stu]

13% reporting. Imperial County: Feinstein 28.3, de Leon 15.7. I never saw that coming. I thought de Leon would be doing better there now.

[Maxwell]

lol Republicans got locked out of the Lieutenant Governors race it looks like.

[Sir Mohamed]

lol Republicans got locked out of the Lieutenant Governors race it looks like.

Yes, it'll be Kounalakis versus Hernandez. Becerra will face a GOPer though in his AG race.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Anyone know why Placer County went pretty dramatically D? It was one of a few Trump counties to vote D in a few races (along with Butte, Trinity, and Inyo). Butte and Trinity make sense (Obama won them in 2008). Placer and Inyo don’t.

Placer is pretty well educated. Most of its population is in the suburbs like Roseville, Rocklin, and Loomis. Looking slightly to the south to Folsom (part of Sac County), Dems have been doing better as well. Jerry Brown beat Neel Kashkari by something like 53 votes. Looking at 2016, Hillary won Folsom by a few hundred votes. Basically better educated suburbanites aren't voting for Republicans as much as they used to.

Edit: in 2010, Meg Whitman got almost 4,000 more votes than Brown. Granted, the margin was narrower, but in pretty sure that the swing in Folsom was bigger than the state as a whole.